More Nevadans know Jack Carter today than four months ago, but the president's son turned Democratic Senate candidate is still far from giving the Republican incumbent a competitive run.
According to a new Review-Journal poll, if the general election were held today, Sen. John Ensign would attract 54 percent of the state's votes. Almost a quarter, 23 percent, of Democrats would vote for him, as would half of Clark County, a Democratic stronghold.
Advertisement
Thirty-three percent of voters statewide said they'd vote for Carter, and 13 percent were undecided.
"We've got work to do, but I'm pleased with the direction it's coming," Carter said in a telephone interview between campaign events in Northern Nevada on Friday.
"I think I'm going to win. But everybody knows him. People don't know me. It's up to us to get that out." The Mason-Dixon Polling &
Research survey, commissioned by the Review-Journal, reviewjournal.com and KVBC-TV, Channel 3, surveyed 625 registered voters by telephone this week. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Ensign recalled his 1998 bid to unseat Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., in which he started at the bottom of a similar point spread. But by November, he failed by only about 400 votes.
"I don't think the polls this early in the game are something you can, one, rely on because they're an indicator at a point in time," he said. "If you take anyone lightly because you are up you can have what almost happened to Harry Reid. I never want to have that happen. I learned my lesson from Harry."
The good news for Carter is he's attracted more Democrats and independents to his base and is up 6 points since a Review-Journal poll in April. Ensign is down 6 points since that survey was conducted.
"The big difference between the April poll and the (August) poll is Carter's name recognition went from 44 percent to 74 percent, so his name ID has jumped 30 points," said Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon. "You raise your name ID, it'll move numbers."
Neither candidate has a strong challenger in Tuesday's primary.
Come November, Carter should have Clark County locked up, but Ensign will take the election, predicted David Damore, a University of Nevada, Las Vegas political science professor. "I think he'll (Ensign will) be able to weather the storm, but it may turn out to be closer than he initially thought," Damore said.
For Carter to win, he'll have to give voters a reason not to vote for Ensign and go negative, he said.
But Erik Herzik, a University of Nevada, Reno political science professor, said it'll be hard to turn Ensign's base when the senator hasn't alienated anyone but liberals.
"People are not dissatisfied with John Ensign, and that's another problem Carter has. His only issue is: I don't like George Bush. Well, George Bush isn't on the ballot. John Ensign is," Herzik said.
Carter said he doesn't need to get negative.
"Just look at his voting record," Carter said. "I'm not going to go negative on the guy, he's probably a good guy. He voted against stem cell research ... He cuts back on federal spending for veterans at a time when this war is creating disabled veterans hand over fist. He's lousy on the environment. It's the support of the Bush administration I think that makes him vulnerable."
