In November 2002, Republicans won all six state constitutional offices and the brand-new congressional district that was supposed to be a tossup.
Meanwhile, reapportionment and redistricting following the 2000 census created an uphill battle for Democrats working to win control of Congress. The new boundaries tilted so in favor of the GOP nationwide that Democrats felt their best hope to take back power in Washington might be to make four years of gains in state races so they would have the upper hand in the next round of redistricting after the 2010 census.
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But a miracle of sorts has been handed to Democrats this year. The Republican president has very low support because of the morass in Iraq; huge budget deficits; invasions of privacy; and an economy that, despite decent numbers, still has brought tough times for the average middle-class voter.
An opportunity to reclaim the House and Senate has arisen. Yet in battleground Nevada, which some like to classify as a purple state, the chance to force even one Republican seat to change parties will be mission impossible.
Tuesday's primary largely ended the Democrats' long-odds chance to take the 2nd Congressional District, which is being vacated by Republican gubernatorial nominee Jim Gibbons. Ultra-conservative Assemblywoman Sharron Angle's narrow loss has put Secretary of State Dean Heller, a moderate who has run successfully statewide three times, into the general as the Republican nominee. Democrat Jill Derby can try all she wants to court nonpartisans, but even a moderate Republican is seen as better than a Democrat in the eyes of 2nd District voters, who cover the entire state except most of Clark County.
So hated has the word "Democrat" become that it is used as a slur by the Republican National Committee.
(I mentioned in a previous column that I'm a Democrat, and that drew roughly a dozen telephone and e-mail responses along the lines of: "You lousy Democrat, Osama bin Laden lover. You just want to raise taxes and pull out of Iraq to let the terrorists win.")
Derby couldn't overcome Heller even if the district's voter registration totals were dead even. In the 2nd District, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 48,000.
All things being equal in the 3rd District still does not help Democratic nominee Tessa Hafen much, although her party now owns a slight registration lead and President Bush's approval numbers in the suburban and small-town Clark County district are atrocious.
When Hafen announced she was going to take on two-term Republican incumbent Jon Porter, I thought at first that she was the kind of candidate, finally, who didn't have ethical baggage, a la 2002 loser Dario Herrera, or carpetbagging issues, like 2004 loser Tom Gallagher. As Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's chosen candidate (she was on his staff for the past eight years), she'll have money and she'll get national attention. I wondered how Porter, who despises the media and hasn't returned a call from me in three years, could handle a decent candidate.
I figured he'd overwhelm her with rosy TV ads about himself every day from Labor Day till Nov. 7, along with some type of attack on Hafen before she had the cash to even define herself.
I was wrong. Porter's already on the tele, and now it's just a matter of when to start the attacks linking her to RNC whipping boy Reid.
The 3rd is a tough district for Democrats because the nonpartisans and many of the Democrats themselves are conservative. During the height of the anti-Bush 2004 election fervor, I walked an evenly-split precinct in the 3rd and found plenty of Democrats who said they'd vote for Bush.
Hafen could beat Porter, but leaning on Reid for funding will only strengthen the tie that will bind her to the Porter attack machine.
Barring indictment, incumbents these days largely decide when they want to leave Congress.
The 1st District is so heavily Democratic now, it's hard to remember that Sen. John Ensign once represented it. Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley will be able to spend most of the campaign working on behalf of Hafen and Derby because her own race will be a landslide.
The state's even voter registration notwithstanding, Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Jack Carter will probably lose big to Republican incumbent Ensign this year, and, just as with Ensign's 2000 campaign against Ed Bernstein, Reid will stand idly by as it happens.
Tuesday's primary gave Democrats little hope in the state constitutional offices.
Gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus, the state Senate's minority leader, is an excellent standard-bearer of Democratic ideals. But what my party considers vital -- full-day kindergarten, development of renewable energy, stem cell research, health insurance for kids -- is viewed through the spectrum of a campaign simply as raising taxes or government spending.
Down ticket in the lieutenant governor's race, Bob Unger's lackluster primary win over Bob Goodman, "None of These Candidates" and gaming figure Bob Stupak doesn't bode well for his general election campaign against Republican nominee Brian Krolicki, the state's two-term treasurer.
The race for secretary of state between fortunate sons Ross Miller (the Democratic nominee and son of former Gov. Bob Miller) and Danny Tarkanian (the Republican son of former UNLV men's basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian) might become one of the closest races of the year. Tarkanian's already out front and center with a voter ID plan that helped him get through his primary against the much more conservative Brian Scroggins.
Only the stumbles of the Republican Party have given Democrats a chance in two races. Catherine Cortez Masto was virtually handed the attorney general's office when Republican George Chanos abruptly opted not to run despite being appointed to the post so he would. The only Republican willing to challenge Cortez Masto on short notice was former District Judge Don Chairez, the man behind the popular PISTOL initiative.
The Republicans' nomination of Mark DeStefano, a bankrupt businessman with past residency issues, is the only way Kate Marshall can stay within striking distance in the race for treasurer.
Controller, for what it's worth, looks to be retained by Steve Martin of the GOP.
A lot can still happen in the next 2 1/2 months, but the view five days after the primary doesn't look good for Democrats.
Erin Neff's column runs Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. She can be reached at 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.