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Mar. 05, 2006
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal


Democrats may change primary calendar

Nevada among states considered to hold early contest in '08

By
RAAM WONG

STEPHENS WASHINGTON BUREAU



Voters in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary enter and exit from voting booths at a polling station in Manchester, N.H., on Jan. 27, 2004. Democrats are considering changes to the primary calendar for 2008. Party leaders are looking to the South and West to hold an early contest, with Nevada mentioned as a possible pick.
Photo by The Associated Press.

WASHINGTON -- By the time 9,000 Nevada Democrats packed into schools and gyms to pick their presidential nominee in February 2004, voters in snowy Iowa and New Hampshire had pretty much already made the decision for them weeks earlier.

Gov. Howard Dean's campaign was in free-fall. Sen. John Edwards was struggling to get traction. And the eventual nominee, who had labeled himself "Comeback Kerry," was coasting to victory following his win in the two states.

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Democrats hope to slow the steamroller in 2008.

A party rule-making committee is set to consider changes to the primary calendar this week, potentially giving long-ignored states their best shot in years at having an early voice in who wins the nomination.

In recent interviews, party leaders say they are looking to the South and West to hold an early contest, with Nevada prominently mentioned as a possible pick.

"I think Nevada would be a great possibility," said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich.

Levin has complained that the nominating process gives undue influence to Iowa's opening caucus and New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary.

In recent elections, winning the states has given candidates a virtual lock on the nomination.

Sen. Harry Reid, the Democratic minority leader, said: "Everything should not be focused on New Hampshire and Iowa."

Reid and other Democrats see growing momentum to shake up the calendar.

On Saturday, a Democratic rule-making committee will take up a report by the party's Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling.

The report recommends that the first-in-the-nation status be maintained for Iowa and New Hampshire.

But it also calls for the addition of other states early on that reflect the party's diverse membership and goal of being competitive nationwide.

The report recommends up to two caucuses after Iowa and before New Hampshire, as well as up to two primaries the week after New Hampshire.

Other primaries would then follow beginning Feb. 5.

Party leaders are eyeing states in the South, where Democrats are looking to gain a foothold, and the West, where they hope to turn red states blue.

"If other states are in the mix then candidates are going to have to show that they have depth and breadth across the country," said Michael Stratton, a Colorado political consultant and commission member.

For more than 20 years, Stratton has been lobbying for a change in the primary calendar to give Western states additional clout.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a Democrat, also has been pushing for the change.

"I've always felt that the West has been kind of a flyover," said Richardson, who is mulling his own run at the presidential nomination in 2008.

The commission's report recommends that the party choose states with significant minority populations, economic diversity and presence of organized labor.

Stratton and Richardson said Nevada appears to fit the bill.

The state has one of the highest concentrations of organized labor in the country, with union members making up 14 percent of the work force last year.

Nevada's booming tourism industry had meant that the state is one of the few places where union membership is on the rise.

And nearly 20 percent of the state is Hispanic, according to census figures.

State party leaders say an early Nevada caucus could tip the scales their way in a battleground state that has voted for every presidential winner since 1912 except President Carter in 1976.

President Clinton won the state twice, as did President Bush, who inched out a narrow victory over Sen. John Kerry.

Both Bush and Kerry spent considerable time in the state, with get-out-the-vote operations in Las Vegas and Reno.

Many Democrats see the Southwestern and the Rocky Mountain states as key to seizing Congress in 2006 and the White House in 2008.

The calendar shift would increase the importance of Western states, requiring candidates to be tuned into the regional issues, said Republican Gov. Kenny Guinn, who likes the proposal.

"I think it would be important to us in the West," Guinn said.

In 2004, Stratton was the campaign manager for Democrat Ken Salazar's successful Senate campaign in Colorado, also a swing state.

"If the Democrats pay attention to the West, then the West will pay attention to the Democrats and we can elect a president in 2008," Stratton said.

State parties also are considering a superprimary for Utah, Arizona and New Mexico on Feb. 5.

Democrats in New Hampshire are resisting any change that might dilute the importance of their primary.

They tout grass-roots campaigns that require candidates to crisscross the state, holding dozens of town hall meetings, and trudging through snow-filled neighborhoods hunting for support.

"It's one of the last places in politics that real people regularly question politicians face to face in unscripted environments," said Ray Buckley, vice chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party.

State officials have fended off previous challenges to their status by demanding that candidates not participate in other primaries.

State law charges the secretary of state with setting New Hampshire's primary at least seven days before a "similar election."

"New Hampshire will put pressure on all the candidates not to pay attention," to Nevada or any other state, said Gina Glantz, who served as Democratic Sen. Bill Bradley's campaign manager in the 2000 primaries.

That year, Bradley scored a near upset over Vice President Al Gore in New Hampshire.

But Glantz believes a five-week delay between the New Hampshire and other states ended any momentum Bradley might have had and doomed his campaign.

"Bill Bradley disappeared," Glantz said. "If there had been continuing primaries I think the interest would have been maintained."

Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, said he would like to see primary dates stretched out evenly over many weeks, so as to downplay the importance of a single bunch of primaries and to give candidates time to re-group after a loss.

The commission report recommends that the party take steps to discourage front-loading of the primary calendar.

The Rules and Bylaws Committee will consider the report during its meeting Saturday. The panel is made up of 40 members appointed by party chairman Howard Dean, who has indicated support for the changes.

Sen. Levin said, "I think the committee will be very reluctant to go against the commission's recommendation."

The panel could decide the timing of the contests, solicit applications from states and decide who goes when.

The full Democratic National Committee would then have to endorse the calendar, though DNC officials say that's unlikely to happen at its April meeting in New Orleans.

Nevada party leaders are pledging a strong lobbying campaign. "I think we have a great chance," said Adriana Martinez, chairwoman of the state party.

Moving the party-run caucus would not require a change to state law, unlike in other states.

Martinez said the early contest also could be a boon to the economy.

The 2000 primaries contributed an estimated $231 million to New Hampshire's economy for everything from rental cars to makeup artists for the candidates, according to a study by the New Hampshire Political Library.

But even if Nevada joins the ranks of the first in the nation, candidates still could choose to opt out of its caucuses, Glantz said.

She added, "The only thing that's predictable about presidential politics is that it's unpredictable."

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