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Nov. 03, 2006
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal


BALLOT INITIATIVES: Poll: Smoking measures lag

Neither has support for approval

By ANNETTE WELLS
REVIEW-JOURNAL


Click image for enlargement.
Graphic by Mike Johnson.

The dueling anti-smoking initiatives appear to have Nevada voters in a fog, hurting the chances of either one passing on Election Day, a new Review-Journal poll shows.

Neither Question 4, the less restrictive of the two measures, nor Question 5 had enough support to pass, according to the statewide poll of 625 voters conducted Oct. 26 through Oct. 30.

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Question 5, known as the Clean Indoor Air Act, had slightly more support, with 44 percent of those surveyed favoring passage, 42 percent opposed and 14 percent undecided.

Question 4, dubbed the Responsibly Protect Nevadans from Second-Hand Smoke Act, was favored by 42 percent, with 45 percent opposed and 13 percent undecided.

The share of voters favoring passage dropped sharply for both measures from a late September Review-Journal poll, which showed 77 percent of voters backing Question 4, and 62 percent supporting Question 5.

"That's a pretty big drop-off for both. I suspect the way the two sides have been going at each other, voters are probably just confused," said Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the poll. "They are probably saying, 'Oh well. Let's just vote for neither of them.' "

The poll, which was conducted for the Review-Journal, reviewjournal.com and KVBC-TV, Channel 3, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The decline in the polls by both measures comes as each side bombards the public with advertising.

The percentage of undecided voters increased for both measures between the September poll and the new poll.

"It's not uncommon for two competing measures to be on a ballot," Coker said. "But when the two sound very much the same, all it does is confuse people."

If both measures gain passage, the one receiving the most votes would become law.

Coker, who had predicted Question 5 would win following the Review-Journal's initial poll on the questions in April, said he still believes the tougher anti-smoking measure will win despite the loss in voter support.

"It's going to be very close,'' he said.

Both campaigns claim their measure would reduce Nevadans' exposure to second-hand smoke.

However, only Question 5 would ban smoking in all enclosed buildings with exemptions for casinos, bars that don't serve food and private homes.

Backed by the hospital and medical associations, the American Cancer Society and health care providers, Question 5 would also allow local governments to impose stricter anti-tobacco laws than the state.

Backers of Question 4 say totally eliminating smoking in restaurants and bars would hurt Nevada's tourism-based economy.

They argue that Nevada draws visitors because the state allows them "certain freedoms."

Question 4, which is backed by the gaming and tavern industries, would, for the most part, maintain the status quo, allowing smoking in restaurants, bars that serve food and in grocery and convenience stores that allow gaming equipment.

In some areas, Question 4 would weaken existing law.

Both initiatives ban smoking on school grounds and in arcades and day care centers.

However, Question 4 would require at least 13 children to be in in-home day care centers before the smoking ban would take effect. Current law requires only five.

Michael Hackett, campaign manager for Nevadans for Tobacco Free Kids, the backers of Question 5, said that the campaign for Question 4 has been to confuse voters into thinking it's the more restrictive measure.

The backers of Question 4 agree having two anti-smoking measures ballot is confusing, however, they say the intention of their campaign is not to mislead voters.

Lee Haney, a spokeswoman for the Smoke Free Coalition, which backs Question 4, acknowledged voter confusion might be eroding support for both initiatives.

"We knew going in that having two anti-smoking initiatives on the ballot would be confusing for voters, but our research has shown that Nevadans aren't ready for a complete ban,'' Haney said.

Haney said internal polling for Question 4 shows it "winning soundly and that the other (Question 5) is bordering 50 percent.''

Hackett said he couldn't explain the slip in support for both questions, especially Question 5.

"It could all depend on how the questions were phrased or what order they were in,'' he said.

Backers of Question 4 have received $1.8 million in campaign contributions, roughly $1.5 million of it since Aug. 8.

Among the largest donors to the less restrictive measure were Herbst Gaming, which has donated $625,000 since Aug. 25; Las Vegas Sands Corp., which has contributed $100,000; and Rebel Oil Co., which has donated $100,000.

Question 5 backers have received just more than $561,000 in donations, with the majority, about $421,000, coming from the American Cancer Society. The American Lung Association is the second-largest donor at just over $32,000.

"We did OK,'' Hackett said of the campaign contributions to the Question 5 campaign. "But, they (Question 4 supporters) outraised and spent us by a five-to-one margin. That's what helped them send out this message of confusion.''



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