A measure to limit greenhouse gas emissions in California could foster fresh interest among California companies looking outside the state for a less regulated business environment.
The cap, designed to cut greenhouse gas output 25 percent by 2020, evoked stern responses from business advocates such as the California Chamber of Commerce, which said in a statement that the act would drive companies and jobs out of California and jack up power and fuel prices for residents of the Golden State.
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Gino DiCaro, a spokesman for the California Manufacturers and Technology Association, said the limit will weigh heavily on emissions-producing cement makers, power companies, steel manufacturers and oil refiners. The Milken Institute reported that doing business in California already costs 24 percent more than the national average, DiCaro said, and many of the state's companies simply can't bear any more economic burdens.
"This bill, combined with the more expensive cost of doing business, makes it almost impossible to stay competitive in California," DiCaro said. "Predictability in the economy is, more than anything else, what businesses look for when they're selecting a site. This bill does nothing but create uncertainty in terms of future growth in California."
But don't expect local economic-development agencies to exploit the potential bonanza of recruiting targets that the cap could generate.
"If businesses begin leaving California because they don't meet standard emissions requirements, we don't want them in Nevada, either," said Somer Hollingsworth, president and chief executive officer of the Nevada Development Authority in Las Vegas. "Those aren't companies we're going to be soliciting."
Rob DeRocker, executive vice president of economic-diversification marketing firm Development Counsellors International in New York, said he wasn't surprised at Hollingsworth's take on the prospect of pursuing emissions-cap refugees.
"The age of smokestack-chasing is over," DeRocker said. "That's as true in Nevada as it is in California, North Dakota or Massachusetts."
And though some industries will flee California to avoid the costs of the cap, a surge of service-oriented companies could flock to the state, lured by its environmental leadership and cleaner air, DeRocker said.
Members of industries that the cap will affect offered mixed predictions on whether Nevada will capture new businesses as a result of the rules.
An influx of oil refineries into Nevada would be unlikely because petroleum operations need ports nearby to import crude and export fuel.
Cement manufacturers, however, are already eyeing the Silver State.
Tom Tietz, executive director of the California-Nevada Cement Promotion Council in Yorba Linda, Calif., said the greenhouse-gas ceiling will discourage new construction of cement plants in his state.
"The emission cap is effectively a cap on production, and a cap on production will be a disincentive to invest in the cement industry in California," Tietz said. "The industry would then move to other states and countries not under such stringent requirements."
Tietz added that Nevada would "definitely" be a good location for cement makers. He cited an Aug. 27 story in the Stockton (Calif.) Record that said officials of California Portland Cement have delayed a $400 million expansion of a factory in Mojave, Calif., and are considering moving the operation into Nevada.
Energy companies could be affected by the cap, but Pat Hammond, a spokeswoman for Reliant Energy in Houston, said company officials haven't yet determined how the new law will affect its California operations.
"The proposed legislation is far-reaching, with many of the details still to be worked out," Hammond said.
Edison International spokesmen were traveling Wednesday and were unable to comment on the cap, and representatives of power plant company Sempra Energy didn't return phone calls by press time.
Jan Smutny-Jones, executive director of the Independent Energy Producers Association in Sacramento, Calif., said industry members are focusing on the bill's upsides.
The law will eventually create a mechanism to discourage or prevent power companies from moving operations out of California and into neighboring states to avoid the emissions limit, though Smutny-Jones said details on avoiding such plant "leakage" weren't yet established.
Rather than looking for a way out of the state, power companies will focus on upgrading their California plants, Smutny-Jones said.
"The existing fleet of electric plants in coastal California was built in the 1950s, so they're in need of modernization," he said. "(The cap) may act as an incentive to modernize them in fairly short order. The business interests we represent knew this was coming, and they're looking for ways to turn this into something positive."
Yet, experts said even some business owners whose companies don't issue noticeable greenhouse gas emissions might leave the state because of the cap. In the proposal, said DeRocker, they see evidence that Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has abandoned the business community he pledged to help when he was elected in 2003.
Schwarzenegger negotiated with Democrats in the California Legislature to formulate the emissions cap. Lawmakers have to vote on the ceiling, but passage is likely because Democrats dominate the state's Legislature.
"Not only has Schwarzenegger failed to come through on other business-friendly initiatives (such as limiting state spending and avoiding an increase in the minimum wage), but he's going against them here," DeRocker said. "This is an affirmation for some businesses of Schwarzenegger's true colors."
Hollingsworth said that's a sentiment he hears often these days from the California businesses his group recruits.
"What they're telling us," he said, "is that Schwarzenegger has pretty much decided that rather than do the right thing, he would rather just be governor."