College betting: Pitino will be challenged to rally Louisville

If Rick Pitino is looking to escape Louisville, and if the school is ready to part ways with him, now is the time.

It just so happens the time is right for UNLV, too.

Pitino said it was a "complete shock" Friday when Louisville announced a self-imposed postseason ban on its basketball team for this season. The Cardinals (18-4) were a threat to make a deep NCAA Tournament run.

The NCAA is investigating the well-publicized sex scandal allegedly involving escorts and Louisville players. Further, harsher sanctions could be coming. Pitino's legacy could be tarnished. But what is now certain is the Cardinals' season will end March 5. So, if Pitino has serious interest in the UNLV coaching job, both sides can get an early start on negotiations.

Handicappers can look at Louisville's nine remaining games two ways. Either the Cardinals' players will be emotionally flat and pack it in or Pitino will rally his team to make the most of what's left on the schedule.

Louisville is a 21½-point home favorite over Boston College today, and this might seem like a good spot to bet against the Cardinals if they are deflated. But the Eagles are so bad — losing their past five road games by 14, 27, 27, 23 and 22 points — that I cannot recommend a play on the underdog.

There will be better opportunities to bet against the Cardinals, who play at Duke and Notre Dame next week.

Six plays for today (home team in CAPS):

• Virginia (-1½) over PITTSBURGH: This should be a defensive slugfest that gets ugly, which is coach Tony Bennett's type of game. The Cavaliers have reeled off five wins in a row, including a 63-47 romp at Louisville last week. Senior guard Malcolm Brogdon (17.8 points per game) is Virginia's go-to scorer, and he's better than any offensive option for the Panthers.

• DUKE (-10½) over North Carolina State: Defensive weaknesses are a problem for the Blue Devils, who are 2-4 in their past six games. But this is an opponent they can blast with their offensive firepower. Duke beat the Wolfpack 88-78 on Jan. 23 behind 28 points from Grayson Allen and 25 from Brandon Ingram.

• MICHIGAN (+3½) over Michigan State: The Wolverines were embarrassed on their home floor Tuesday while falling 80-67 to Indiana, so this line is slightly inflated. Michigan might get senior star Caris LeVert back from a left leg injury, but after missing nine games LeVert would not be a big factor. The biggest factor is coach John Beilein, who will get his team to bounce back and rise up in a rivalry game.

• Purdue (+4½) over MARYLAND: Scheduling dynamics are working in favor of the Boilermakers, who had a week off to prep for this game. Meanwhile, the Terrapins were on the road fighting for narrow wins at Nebraska and Ohio State. Purdue, No. 2 in the nation in rebound margin at plus-12.3, has a bigger front line with A.J. Hammons, Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan.

• Unlv (-1½) over FRESNO STATE: Not only are the Bulldogs an overrated team, their home-court advantage is minor. Fresno State is off a 12-point loss at San Jose State, and no decent team loses by double digits to San Jose State. The Rebels are thin inside without injured forward Ben Carter, but look for big games from freshmen Derrick Jones Jr. and Stephen Zimmerman Jr., who is making obvious improvement.

• Tennessee-Martin (-3) over SIU EDWARDSVILLE: Heath Schroyer, a former UNLV assistant, has the Skyhawks at 12-12 after back-to-back victories over Austin Peay and Murray State. The Cougars (4-18) have lost 11 of 12 and are 322nd of 351 Division I teams in the Ken Pomeroy ratings.

Last week: 3-5 against the spread

Season: 8-8

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247