Denver defense dictates approach to prop wagers

I'll approach my Super Bowl 50 wagering on the fact that Denver has the NFL's No. 1 defense.

The Broncos are tops in several categories, including total defense (283.1 yards per game) and sacks (52). While not expecting the Broncos to shut down quarterback Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers' high-powered offense Sunday, they can contain Newton just enough. Peyton Manning should be an efficient game manager, throwing short passes and letting the Broncos' running backs fight for tough yards.

Look for somewhat of a conservative game plan by both teams, which should translate to a slow start. I am predicting a close game throughout, and some of my proposition plays reflect that.

I like the Broncos as underdogs, as they were installed as 'dogs four times in the regular season and went 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread.

Since the 1996 season, seven Super Bowls have featured a defense that finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in the league in fewest points allowed. And the teams with the top-ranked defense went 6-1 in those games.

When shopping for Super Bowl props, I mostly look for plus prices, with a few exceptions. Here are eight props I have bet at three sports books:

William Hill

Total interceptions in the game: 1½ (Over -125)

Manning should be good for at least one interception, and Newton will have the Denver defense in his face most of the day.

Total penalties in the game: 12½ (Under +105)

This number just seems too high. I'll look for two quality teams to avoid dumb penalties in the biggest game of the season.

Shortest touchdown scored: 1½ (Over +105)

This is a prop I normally bet in the Super Bowl and was lucky to win last season when Seattle's Russell Wilson threw an interception at the 1-yard line. Only a 1-yard score beats you, and I don't see many touchdowns being scored in the game.

Total players to attempt a pass: 2½ (Over +175)

There is lots of value at a plus price. There is always the possibility that Manning gets banged up and has to leave the game. Also, I could see a trick play with a running back or wideout throwing the ball.

Westgate

Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes (+110)

In an anticipated close game, we could see the score being tied more than once.

Largest lead of the game by either team: 13½ (Under +175)

Again, it's doubtful either team runs away and threatens a blowout, so bet against a 14-point lead.

Total receptions by the Broncos' Demaryius Thomas: 5½ (Over -110)

The Broncos were blown out in the Super Bowl two years ago, but Thomas set a record with 13 catches. While double-digit receptions will be tough to achieve again, he only needs six.

Station Casinos

Three unanswered scores in the game: No (+175)

I'm obviously projecting a close game with the teams trading scores. If it's a blowout, this prop is toast. But, following a recent trend, we should see another exciting Super Bowl.

Mark Franco (FrancoSports.com) is a Las Vegas professional handicapper.