’Dogs winners against spread

As the final seconds ticked down Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa, Ala., the Crimson Tide had already essentially secured a victory over No. 1 Mississippi State. But the spread result was still in doubt.

Trailing No. 4 Alabama 25-13 and facing fourth-and-goal from the 4 with 15 seconds left, Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott found Jameon Lewis in the end zone for a classic backdoor cover.

Mississippi State (9-1), which trailed 19-0 in the first half, suffered its first loss in the standings, but it was a winner for bettors who took the 10 points in the 25-20 defeat.

“In the third quarter, it looked like you had nothing but a receipt if you had a ticket on Mississippi State, and all of a sudden you were cashing it,” South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro said. “It looked like a cakewalk at 19-3 but this is what it is now with the spread offenses. There’s really no lead unchallenged anymore.

“Thousands of dollars changed hands with 15 seconds to go.”

When the Bulldogs got the backdoor cover, the packed South Point sports book erupted.

“It was a dual explosion. The guys that had Mississippi State and the guys that had the loser, Alabama,” Vaccaro said. “The Mississippi State guys ran right up to the window and cashed their ticket and bet on the late games, so it worked out.”

The Tide opened as a 7½-point favorite, and the line was bet to 10 before wiseguys jumped on the underdog.

“It was an OK winner because there was decent buyback on the ’dog. When we got to 10, I figured the sharps would jump in and they did,” Vaccaro said. “Early on in the week it was Alabama money and parlays that pushed it up. At the end, it was what I consider value hunters. It could’ve blown up in their face if the kid didn’t catch it.”

It was a good day for underdogs and, by extension, for Las Vegas sports books, which cashed in as ’dogs went 8-1 against the spread with four outright upsets in early games involving Top 25 teams.

“It was a very, very good day,” Vaccaro said. “Things have been going very, very well booking college football the entire year. There’s been only a few minor (losing) days. If things hold up, today will be one of the better days.”

As he spoke, No. 2 Florida State trailed Miami, Fla., 23-10 at halftime. But the Seminoles (10-0) pulled out another great escape to stay undefeated, outscoring the Hurricanes 20-3 in the second half, including a go-ahead 26-yard touchdown run by Dalvin Cook with 3:05 left to win — and cover the 3-point spread — in a 30-26 triumph.

Vaccaro said the South Point sports book needed Miami to win, but it wasn’t a major decision. Most games weren’t, as the action was fairly balanced across the board.

“There wasn’t like a crazy game, like last week’s Jets-Steelers, where 80 percent of the tickets were on one side,” he said. “There were 15 fair decisions, and we probably won nine of them. It made it real good for us on the day.”

Not including the late No. 7 Arizona State-Oregon State game, Top 25 underdogs went 1-4 in the late games but finished 9-5 ATS overall.

Like Alabama, which is certain to jump into the top four teams in the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, No. 8 Ohio State won but didn’t cover in a 31-24 win at Minnesota.

The Gophers, 13½-point home ’dogs, trailed by 17 in the fourth quarter before scoring the final 10 points for the backdoor cover. The Buckeyes had three turnovers, with Jalin Marshall’s fumbled punt return leading to David Cobb’s 12-yard TD run that made the score 31-21 with 7:08 left.

“That was a very good game for us. (The line) opened at 12, closed at 13½ and could’ve went to 14,” Vaccaro said. “(The Buckeyes) were up by 17, too. It’s almost getting like the NBA. You tune in late to see if you win or lose.”

The inaugural four-team CFP is already paying dividends for the books.

“Going to the four teams has probably boosted the total handle of college football, when it wraps up in January, by 10 to 15 percent over last year,” Vaccaro said. “What makes it so good is this time of year is still football crazy with the playoff possibilities. The interest builds so much when more teams are fighting for the final four.”

Vaccaro said bettors must pay a virtual premium if they want to lay points with one of the top-ranked teams because they’ll probably try to run up the score if possible in an attempt to curry favor with the CFP committee.

“You’re paying a minimum of another point and a half tariff if you want to bet on those teams,” he said. “It has some validity to it. If you only win 17-14, they’re not gonna know who you are, but if you win 50-14, they will.”

Vaccaro won’t be surprised if Mississippi State drops out of the top four with its loss to the Tide (9-1).

“Only because they’re not Alabama,” he said. “If Alabama was the No. 1 team and they lost by 5, they’d probably shift to No. 3. They’re in the world of marquee teams.

“They want Alabama in these playoff-type games. Alabama draws attention. Alabama is beginning to have a love-hate relationship with the public. You bet on them or against them.”

Betting against them paid off Saturday.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0354. Follow him on Twitter: @tdewey33.