Heavily favored Baylor should cover against West Virginia

Baylor coach Art Briles probably has revenge on his mind, and he surely has bad memories of West Virginia.

An ill-fated, mid-October trip to Morgantown, W.Va., last year ultimately kept the Bears and the Big 12 Conference at home during the inaugural four-team College Football Playoff. Baylor entered the game as a 7½-point favorite with a 6-0 record and a lofty No. 4 ranking, then departed with a 41-27 thumping by the Mountaineers.

At the end of the 2014 regular season, Baylor and Texas Christian were left on the outside looking in as the Big 12 was shut out of the playoff.

The rematch today in Waco, Texas, represents an opportunity for the Bears to avenge last year's costly defeat and take another step toward a possible berth in this year's playoff.

Although heavily favored by 20½ points, the Bears have routinely covered large tariffs at home under Briles. Overall, Baylor has gotten the money in 18 of its past 22 games as home chalk.

Additionally, the Bears have proven difficult to slow once they get their offensive machine clicking on all cylinders. Since the start of the 2013 season, Baylor is 9-3 against the spread after scoring 60 or more points in its previous game.

West Virginia was set to rely heavily on its defense this year despite its offensive-first reputation under coach Dana Holgorsen. But the Mountaineers took a heavy hit two weeks ago, when safety Karl Joseph, a fourth-year starter and emotional leader, was lost for the season to injury.

With the heavy lifting on its schedule still a few weeks in the distance, look for Baylor to continue to stack up style points. Lay the points with the Bears and quarterback Seth Russell.

Four more plays for today (home team in CAPS):

* FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+4) over Marshall — The Thundering Herd enter with a 5-1 record, but they bear little resemblance to last year's high-powered unit featuring quarterback Rakeem Cato. This represents Marshall's seventh game in seven weeks, and it shapes up nicely as a spot for it to produce less than a stellar effort.

* NORTHWESTERN (+2) over Iowa — The Hawkeyes' lineup is littered with injuries on both sides of the ball. Some will play in this game, some will not. But star linebacker Drew Ott is out for the season after suffering a knee injury last week.

Northwestern has covered seven of its past 11 games when cast as an underdog and looks to atone for last week's embarrassing 38-0 loss to Michigan.

* KANSAS STATE (+4) over Oklahoma — This is a strange spot for Kansas State, which staggers into this matchup off back-to-back fourth-quarter defeats — to Oklahoma State and TCU — and badly needs a victory to right its ship.

Wildcats coach Bill Snyder is a wizard at doing more with less, mixing and matching an odd assortment of walk-ons, spare parts and junior college transfers into a winning blend. Kansas State is 5-1 ATS as a conference home 'dog since the start of the 2011 season.

* Arizona-COLORADO (Over 68) — Colorado's linebacking corps has been racked with injuries to the point that three freshmen are expected to play prominent roles against an Arizona offensive attack that has regained the services of quarterback Anu Solomon. The Buffaloes have allowed 36 points or more in each of their past 12 Pac-12 games.

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

Season: 14-14-5

Paul Stone of VegasSportsAuthority.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.