Jimmie Johnson’s domination at Dover can’t be denied

Jimmie Johnson’s performances at Dover International Speedway have been one of the more consistent, bankable betting options offered at sports books.

Johnson has won 10 of 28 starts on the high-banked, one-mile concrete layout, including a sweep during his 2002 rookie year — he won only three races that season.

Johnson has won seven of the past 14 races there and three of five, including last May, so his 7-2 odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR Sprint Cup AAA 400 Drive for Autism look attractive.

There’s such a huge sample size, and with so many changes to rules, aero-packages and body designs, the only relevant constant over Johnson’s 28 races has been the driver, crew chief, owner and Dover’s concrete known as “The Monster Mile.”

The only reason Johnson isn’t in the 5-2 or 3-1 range is because his competition has narrowed the gap. Between all the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, Team Penske and a portion of Stewart Haas’ stable, Johnson has his hands full.

Last spring at Dover, Kevin Harvick gave up the lead to Johnson with 23 laps left and finished second. It was Johnson’s only laps led of the day. In the fall race, Harvick led 355 of 400 laps and won at Dover for the first time in 30 starts. He’s using that same chassis this weekend.

Saturday’s practices

The Stewart Haas Racing duo of Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch were fast during Saturday’s practices, both on the short and long runs. Busch had the best 10-consecutive lap average in the early session, and Harvick was best in the later session.

Starting up front pivotal

Even though it has been seven races since a winner started from the front row, 28 of the 92 Dover races have been won from the first (13 times) or second position (15). The winner has come from top-10 starters in 71 of 92, including eight of Johnson’s 10 wins. Only five times has a driver won from outside the top 10. The deepest start to win was 37th by Kyle Petty in 1995.

Manufacturer

Chevrolet has won the last six Dover races and a track record 38 times since the track opened in 1969. Ford has 25 wins and Toyota two — Kyle Busch in 2008 and 2010. Chevrolet has the edge in quantity, but Toyota has more quality this week.

Similar track

There is nothing like Dover’s layout, but Bristol’s half-mile is close. It’s high-banked with a concrete surface just like Dover, so the Food City 500 results from last month are worth a serious look. Edwards won that race from the pole, leading 276 laps.

Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MicahRoberts7