NFL Betting Breakdown: Joe D’Amico
Jacksonville (2-5) at Kansas City (5-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Chiefs -7½, 44
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: The Chiefs are on a roll, with a three-game win streak against quality opponents (Oakland, New Orleans and Indianapolis). A concussion has sidelined quarterback Alex Smith, but he is replaced by the experienced and capable Nick Foles. Charcandrick West will be the Chiefs’ featured running back with Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware sidelined. The Jaguars, who were blown out at Tennessee on Oct. 27, are not competing hard for coach Gus Bradley. Jacksonville’s defense just isn’t stopping anyone, and its Blake Bortles-led offense won’t be able to compete against Kansas City.
By the numbers: Foles completed 16 of 22 passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts last week. … Jacksonville ranks 25th in the NFL in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game. … The Chiefs rank eighth in scoring defense (19.6). … The Jaguars are 1-5 against the spread in their past six road games.
D’Amico’s pick: Chiefs by 9
Detroit (4-4) at Minnesota (5-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Vikings -6, 41½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: After suffering back-to-back losses on the road, the Vikings return to U.S. Bank Stadium, where they are 3-0 straight up and ATS. Detroit is no pushover, but its defense is missing some key personnel. Minnesota has a stingy defense that ranks No. 1 in scoring, allowing 14.9 points per game. The problems are on offense, where quarterback Sam Bradford is struggling behind a bad offensive line. Now, he has a new play-caller. Pat Shurmur was promoted to offensive coordinator after Norv Turner resigned. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer must get his team back on track here or the season could sink. I expect a low-scoring game, so look under the total.
By the numbers: The Lions’ Matthew Stafford ranks fourth in the league in completion percentage (67.7) while passing for 16 touchdowns with four interceptions. … Bradford totaled two touchdown passes in the past two games, losses at Chicago and Philadelphia. … Minnesota is on a 6-0 ATS run at home.
D’Amico’s pick: Vikings by 10
Philadelphia (4-3) at New York Giants (4-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Giants -2½, 43
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Almost halfway through the season, there is a three-way tie for second place in the NFC East. The Eagles come in angry after blowing a fourth-quarter lead in an overtime loss at Dallas last week. New York had a bye after a lackluster victory over the Rams in London. The Giants’ inconsistency has and will be a problem. Darren Sproles, who has emerged as Philadelphia’s top running back, will keep the New York defense honest.
By the numbers: Eagles rookie Carson Wentz has nine touchdown passes and three interceptions, but seven of those TDs came in the first four games. … The Giants’ Eli Manning has been mediocre with eight TD passes and six interceptions. … The Eagles rank eighth in total defense (328.9 yards per game) and fourth in scoring defense (16.7). … The Giants rank 10th in scoring defense (20.1). … Philadelphia has covered four straight in this series and eight of the past nine in New York.
D’Amico’s pick: Eagles by 3
Dallas (6-1) at Cleveland (0-8)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Cowboys -7, 49
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Dallas is playing surprisingly well behind rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have won and covered six straight. But this is a potential letdown spot for Dallas. Prescott needs to play well enough to keep Tony Romo on the bench. Cleveland has dropped 11 in a row going back to last year. The Browns are going back to rookie quarterback Cody Kessler, and rookie wideout Corey Coleman returns from a hand injury. The Browns’ weak defense does not match up well against the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL.
By the numbers: Elliott is the league rushing leader with 799 yards. … Prescott has nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. … Dallas is rushing for 164.9 yards per game. … Cleveland ranks 31st in rushing defense (143.8 yards per game) and 30th in scoring defense (29.8). … The Browns are 2-11 in their past 13 home games.
D’Amico’s pick: Cowboys by 13
New York Jets (3-5) at Miami (3-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Dolphins -4, 44
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Each team is Jekyll and Hyde and tough to predict, but the line plays a big part here. The Jets rebounded from a 20-7 halftime deficit to win at Cleveland last week. Miami upset Pittsburgh and Buffalo at home before a bye week. This is a matchup of team strengths. The Dolphins are running the ball well on the legs of Jay Ajayi. New York leads the league in run defense.
By the numbers: Ajayi ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing with 535 yards, but that number is deceiving. He had 418 yards in his past two games — 214 against the Bills and 204 against the Steelers. … The Dolphins’ Ryan Tannehill is not catching on quickly in a new offense and has seven touchdown passes and seven interceptions. … The Jets allow only 74.0 yards per game on the ground. … The Jets are 1-6-2 ATS in their past nine road games. … The Jets covered the past five meetings in this AFC East rivalry, and they are 4-1 in their past five trips to Miami.
D’Amico’s pick: Dolphins by 1
Pittsburgh (4-3) at Baltimore (3-4)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Steelers -1, 43½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is questionable to start three weeks after knee surgery, but Big Ben’s history indicates he probably will play. Antonio Brown, the team’s top wideout, is probable to be on the field. Pittsburgh should be a slight favorite. Both teams come off a bye week. Assuming Roethlisberger plays, the Steelers have a few more playmakers and should outscore Joe Flacco and a sluggish Baltimore offense. The Ravens are a banged-up team on both sides of the ball, leading to their four-game losing streak.
By the numbers: Despite missing time, Roethlisberger has 16 touchdown passes. … Flacco has passed for only five TDs. … The Ravens are tied for 26th in scoring offense at 19.0 points per game. … Baltimore has won five of the past six in this AFC North rivalry, sweeping the series last season in two 3-point games. … The Ravens are 2-11-1 ATS in their past 14 home games.
D’Amico’s pick: Steelers by 2
New Orleans (3-4) at San Francisco (1-6)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Saints -4, 52½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: After starting 0-3, New Orleans has won three of four to get back into the postseason discussion. The 49ers are 0-6 straight up and ATS since beating Los Angeles in Week 1. Drew Brees leads the league’s No. 1-ranked passing unit and is on pace for another 5,000-yard season. Brees must be salivating, knowing he gets to face the NFL’s worst-ranked scoring defense (31.3 points per game). To make matters worse for San Francisco, pass-rushing linebacker Aaron Lynch is out with an ankle injury.
By the numbers: Brees ranks No. 3 in passing yards (2,366) to go with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions. … The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games. … New Orleans ranks 31st in scoring defense (30.7). … The 49ers were outscored by a total of 46 points in their past two losses to Tampa Bay and Buffalo.
D’Amico’s pick: Saints by 9
Carolina (2-5) at Los Angeles (3-4)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Panthers -3, 44½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: You can factor in the bye week for Los Angeles, but with quarterback issues and the lack of production by running back Todd Gurley, it’s hard to back the Rams. Even at 2-5, do not discard the defending NFC champs. This is the toughest game on the board for me to handicap, but I have to lean to the Panthers, who regained confidence by beating Arizona a week ago.
By the numbers: The Panthers are 0-3 as road favorites this season, losing outright at Denver, Atlanta and New Orleans. … The Rams are 0-3 straight up and 0-2-1 ATS in their past three games. … Carolina’s Cam Newton has completed just 57 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. … Rams starter Case Keenum has eight touchdown passes with 10 interceptions.
D’Amico’s pick: Panthers by 4
Indianapolis (3-5) at Green Bay (4-3)
Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Packers -7½, 54½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Green Bay is missing too many players at key positions to be laying more than a touchdown. Andrew Luck and the Colts keep games close, with only two of their losses by more than four points. Aaron Rodgers has been a bit off this season, and the Packers’ lack of a running attack should help Indianapolis stay within striking range.
By the numbers: Luck has 16 touchdown passes, but he has been sacked a league-high 31 times. … Rodgers has 17 TD passes, but Green Bay ranks 20th in total offense at 342.3 yards per game. … The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the teams’ past five meetings.
D’Amico’s pick: Packers by 4
Tennessee (4-4) at San Diego (3-5)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Chargers -4½, 47½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: With San Diego coming off two games against Denver and one against Atlanta, you would think the Chargers might be taking a significant step down in class against Tennessee. But the Titans enter with a better record and an offense that is starting to soar, posting 26 points or more in their past four games. DeMarco Murray’s running will open up the passing game for improving quarterback Marcus Mariota. This game stays tight. The Chargers have played only one game decided by double digits.
By the numbers: San Diego’s Melvin Gordon is tied for second in the league with eight rushing touchdowns. … The Chargers’ Philip Rivers has 15 TD passes, one more than Mariota. …. San Diego is 4-12 ATS in its past 16 home games. … The Titans have gone over the total in five straight games.
D’Amico’s pick: Chargers by 4
Denver (6-2) at Oakland (6-2)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)
Line/Total: Raiders -1½, 43½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: While the Raiders are winning and covering on the road, they are 0-3 ATS at home while getting outscored by 6.7 points per game. Derek Carr leads a vastly improved offense against Denver’s No. 3-ranked defense. Avoiding turnovers will be a key for Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian. Are the Raiders ready to take control of the AFC West? Carr has been great, but Oakland has problems with penalties and its soft defense. These teams will not meet again until the Jan. 1 regular-season finale.
By the numbers: Denver is allowing 301.3 yards per game to rank behind only Arizona and Minnesota. … Carr, sacked only nine times in eight games, has 17 touchdown passes with three interceptions. … The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their past five games at Oakland.
D’Amico’s pick: Broncos by 3
Buffalo (4-4) at Seattle (4-2-1)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/Total: Seahawks -7, 44
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Seattle returns to its loud home field Monday night, and quarterback Russell Wilson’s improved health also will benefit the Seahawks. The Bills could get a boost with running back LeSean McCoy returning to practice after a hamstring injury. This line might dip to 6½ again. If you bet the Bills, do not take less than plus-7.
By the numbers: Seattle ranks No. 6 in total defense (319.4 yards per game) and No. 2 in scoring (15.6). … The Bills are 16th in total defense (360.3). … Buffalo allowed a total of 69 points in its past two losses to New England and Miami. … The Bills are 12-6-1 ATS in their past 19 as underdogs.
D’Amico’s pick: Seahawks by 6
