Rodgers vs. Eagles means points

High-scoring games are routine in this era of the NFL, in part due to rules geared to help passing attacks. A quarterback as hot as Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers does not need much help.

A coach as aggressive as Philadelphia’s Chip Kelly is sharp enough to stay ahead of the curve.

So, when the Packers host the Eagles and Rodgers and Kelly cross paths, an offensive explosion is expected today. Las Vegas handicapper Joe D’Amico (Aasiwins.com) recommends betting over the total of 54½ on a cold day in Green Bay, where temperatures will be in the 20s but only light winds and no snow is in the forecast.

“Green Bay is rolling with a very solid offense led by Rodgers, and Kelly has his offense putting up big numbers,” said D’Amico, the leader in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge with a 31-19 record against the spread. “Both teams have looked vulnerable on defense at times. I expect this game to be a shootout and fly over the total.”

The Eagles, No. 4 in the NFL in scoring offense at 31.0 points per game, are 6-3 against the spread and 6-3 over the total.

The Packers, No. 5 in the league in scoring at 30.8 points, are 5-3-1 ATS and 8-1 over the total with six straight games going over. Green Bay is off a 55-point outburst in which Rodgers passed for six touchdowns in the first half against Chicago.

Mark Sanchez, taking over for injured Nick Foles, passed for 332 yards as Philadelphia pounded Carolina 45-21 on Monday.

“Sanchez at quarterback is perhaps the right piece of the puzzle for the Eagles,” D’Amico said.

The Packers, 6-point favorites, have covered five of their past six games.

D’Amico (@Aasiwins on Twitter) breaks down the rest of today’s Week 11 lineup:

■ Houston at Cleveland (-3½): Normally, I would take the points with the Texans, but giving quarterback Ryan Mallett his first career start changes things for me with a team that is 1-3 ATS in its past four. Tashaun Gipson, a safety who leads the league with six interceptions, is recovering from a concussion and might play for the AFC North-leading Browns, who have the sixth-best scoring defense in the league by allowing 19.1 points per game. Brian Hoyer is 9-3 straight up as the team’s starting quarterback. Houston will be without banged-up running back Arian Foster. Most books have moved the line to 3½, but try to lay a field goal with Cleveland.

■ Minnesota at Chicago (-2½): The Bears have dropped three in a row by an average of 27.3 points. Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is starting to get the hang of things for the Vikings. Jay Cutler will be in trouble against Minnesota’s fourth-ranked passing defense. The Bears are 6-20 ATS in their past 26 versus NFC opponents. Take the points with the Vikings, who despise their division rivals.

■ Seattle at Kansas City (-1½): Don’t be fooled by the Seahawks’ recent surge. Winning three in a row against teams with a combined 6-21 record isn’t a great feat. Russell Wilson has one touchdown pass and has not reached 200 yards in the air in the past three games. Kansas City is riding a four-game win streak, with its defense ranking No. 1 against the pass and No. 2 in scoring. The Chiefs are getting the bettors paid, and the Seahawks are not. I’ll side with a Kansas City team that is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings in this series.

■ Atlanta (-1) at Carolina: Both teams have just three wins, but the winner will be back in the hunt in the NFC South. The Falcons are 3-0 in the division, and quarterback Matt Ryan is finally looking more comfortable in the pocket. The Panthers have not won since Oct. 5. With Cam Newton slumping behind a battered offensive line, and a defense without standout end Greg Hardy, Carolina is in trouble. Go with Atlanta, which has covered its past five division games.

■ Cincinnati at New Orleans (-7): The Saints finally dropped a game at home last week, but a win today keeps them atop the NFC South. Cincinnati started 3-0 straight up and ATS but has since gone 2-3-1 straight up. Drew Brees leads a New Orleans offense that still is one of the NFL’s best. The difference in this matchup will be the running of Mark Ingram, who had another 100-yard effort last week. The Saints are 20-1 straight up and 18-2-1 ATS at the Superdome under coach Sean Payton, and I look for them to get back on track. Lay the touchdown.

■ Tampa Bay at Washington (-7½): The past seven meetings in this series were decided by six points or fewer. Still, Tampa Bay has dropped five straight games, and Washington is off a bye week. The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in Josh McCown’s starts this season, and he’s facing a tough Redskins defense that loves to blitz. The Tampa Bay defense ranks among the worst in the league. Lay the points with Washington.

■ Denver (-9½) at St. Louis: It won’t matter who plays quarterback for the Rams. No passer on their roster can go score-for-score with Peyton Manning. The Broncos are 17-3 ATS vs. sub-.500 teams with Manning. The Rams score 18.1 points per game, and the Broncos boast the second-ranked scoring offense in the NFL at 31.8 points. St. Louis cannot run the ball, and without a ground threat, the Denver defense will get to the quarterback. The Broncos are the play.

■ San Francisco (-4) at New York Giants: Aldon Smith returns from a suspension to help the 49ers defense. But the bigger story is that New York got pounded for 350 yards rushing by Seattle last week to hand the Giants their fourth straight loss straight up and ATS. San Francisco’s running attack will punish the Giants. Gone are the days of taking the Giants as home underdogs. The 49ers should roll.

■ Oakland at San Diego (-10): Coming off a bye week and facing the winless Raiders makes the Chargers the play on paper. But I can’t lay double digits with an inconsistent San Diego team. The first meeting a month ago resulted in 59 total points, so that urges me to play this over the total of 44½. Oakland has suffered losses in its defensive line and secondary, which will allow Philip Rivers to throw with success. Derek Carr threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns and the Raiders got their ground game going for 114 yards in the first meeting. Nothing shows me the result won’t be similar this time, so look over the total.

■ Detroit at Arizona (-1): Carson Palmer went down last week with a knee injury, so the Cardinals are going with Drew Stanton at quarterback. Arizona has won five in a row straight up and ATS. The Lions are riding a four-game win streak. Detroit possesses the No. 1 defense in the NFL, yielding only 283 yards and 15.8 points per game. This is the toughest game on the board for me, so I am staying away.

■ New England at Indianapolis (-3): Both teams are off bye weeks, which tells me that Patriots coach Bill Belichick will have his defense primed and ready for Andrew Luck and an explosive Colts offense. New England has won the past four in the series, and the underdog is 13-5-2 ATS in the past 20 meetings. The Patriots are 8-3-1 ATS in their past 12 games at Indianapolis. Take the points with Belichick and Tom Brady.

COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS