Sports books forced to adjust for Sprint Cup restrictor-plate races

The best way to handicap Sprint Cup restrictor-plate races might be to randomly pull a car number out of a hat.

Bettors have to tread lightly four times a season with their bankrolls in these races because driver ratings don’t hold true as they do at tracks such as Texas or Phoenix. Of the 40 drivers starting Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400 at Daytona’s massive 2.5-mile layout, 35 have a legitimate shot to win because of the volatile nature of the track and cars being so equal.

Sports books make major adjustments in weekly odds to reflect the equality of the cars. Three weeks ago at Michigan, Danica Patrick was 500-1. This week she’s 80-1 because two of her six career top-10 finishes are at Daytona. She has a chance to win Saturday, which can’t be said in the 32 races on other types of tracks.

Daytona has produced some long-shot winners. Aric Almirola won the rain-shortened summer race in 2014 for his first career victory and paid 60-1. David Ragan won his first career race in the summer of 2011 and paid 50-1. Trevor Bayne won the 2011 Daytona 500 in his first attempt on the track and paid 100-1.

While the books chop down the odds on the long shots, they also offer more generous odds with drivers on the power teams. Denny Hamlin, who dominated Daytona Speedweeks in February with Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500 wins, is 10-1 at the Westgate.

His Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch are each at 12-1, and Martin Truex Jr. is at 15-1. Four of the top five finishers in the Daytona 500 were JGR cars, and the Gibbs driver who didn’t make it, Matt Kenseth, led 40 of the final 41 laps and got shuffled to 14th on the last lap.

Those trends from February sound like results from JGR at Kentucky’s 1.5-mile layout, not a superspeedway where randomness is supposed to be the key. But also consider that within a second of Hamlin at the finish line were Kyle Larson (seventh) and Regan Smith (eighth), and less than two seconds behind were Almirola (12th) and Michael McDowell (15th).

JUNIOR FAVORED AGAIN

Because he is one of the best plate racers in NASCAR history and sports books know the public is going to bet on him, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is usually the favorite in any plate race.

He has won four times in 33 Daytona races and six at Talladega. He won this race last season and two of the past five. But he finished 36th at the 500 in February and last at Talladega in May.

PRACTICES MEAN LITTLE

Rain canceled Thursday’s two practices, and one makeup session took place Friday morning, but nothing was learned from anyone at the track or sports books just because the plates are on.

The cars are good right off the hauler because teams spend the most money and time on plate cars. Crew chiefs and drivers dislike the plate practices because there’s more risk of damaging the car on the volatile track. Kyle Busch wrecked his primary car in Friday’s practice.

It’s because of the crew chiefs’ lack of enthusiasm for plate practices that those times posted mean far less to the driver rating than they do at other types of tracks. Also, the speeds are always skewed because of the draft. So while it’s nice to see practice times to help handicapping, they’re not relevant much at Daytona.

STEWART BACK-TO-BACK?

Stewart ended an 84-race winless streak last week at Sonoma. At 25-1, he’s not a bad driver to ride in his final season. His four Daytona wins have come in the summer race, and he’s tied with Earnhardt Jr. for most among active drivers.

STARTING POSITION

Of the 55 Daytona summer races, 15 have been won from the front row and 41 from the top 10. But lately, with the cars so equal and bunched together, the draft can propel them through the field quickly. Where a driver starts doesn’t matter much in plate races. Tony Stewart won from the 42nd position in 2012, the deepest a Daytona winner has started.

BEST LONG SHOT

Austin Dillon leads active drivers with a 12.5 average finish in six Daytona starts and should give bettors a thrilling ride for their money at 30-1. Last year, he skidded across the finish line on his roof to finish seventh. In February, he was ninth in the Daytona 500, then third at Talladega in May.

Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MicahRoberts7.