Truex is the driver to beat at Coca-Cola 600

Martin Truex Jr. laid down the fastest lap in Saturday’s final practice session at Charlotte Motor Speedway making him the driver to beat in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ Coca-Cola 600 on Sunday. More impressive than Truex’s fast lap at 186.387 mph was his speed on the longs runs where he had the best 10-consecutive lap average in both of Saturday’s practices.

The long run angle this week is more important than other races because this is NASCAR’s longest race of the season. Even though the track conditions on race day will be different from what was experienced Saturday, Truex will be out front early as the pole-sitter. The only question about whether or not to bet him at 8-to-1 odds is whether he can be trusted. He hasn’t won a race this season, despite leading the most laps in each the past two races on 1.5-mile tracks (Texas, Kansas). He’s not a closer.

However, factoring in pure speed and that he’s using Joe Gibbs Racing equipment which has won six of the past seven races, trust issues ease a bit. Last season, Truex posted his only two top-five finishes at Charlotte with a fifth in May and a third in October. Look for him to lead the most laps again and be in position to win.

FIRST WIN FOR ELLIOTT?

Nine drivers have won their first career race at Charlotte and there are a couple of strong candidates to make it happen again on Sunday with Kyle Larson (25-1) and rookie Chase Elliott (18-1). Larson was outstanding during the Sprint Showdown and All-Star Race at Charlotte last week, but Elliott looks to have the better chance because of being with Hendrick Motorsports which has won a track record 18 times. The No. 24 that Elliott pilots has a nice history with Jeff Gordon winning five times, including his first career victory on May 29, 1994. At 21 years old at the time, Gordon remains the youngest Charlotte winner.

Elliott had the sixth-fastest lap in Saturday’s early practice session where he also had the third best 10-consecutive lap average, a sign he’ll be fast on long runs. What should be the best sign for bettors that he’ll fare well is having four top-five finishes in his last six starts. That’s Kyle Busch territory, not that of a 20-year-old rookie.

With all the changing track conditions of a race going from daylight to dusk and then night, the Coca-Cola 600 is always about what team adjusts its car best for the final 100 laps. Not many have been getting it done better late in races then the No. 24 team. It’s a good bet that Elliott’s team and his savvy racing skills will combined for another top-five, and possibly win. It’s not often you can can get 18-1 odds on a legitimate candidate to win. He’s also a strong play in all driver matchups.

JOHNSON’S CHARLOTTE ROLL SLOWED

Jimmie Johnson has used the Hendrick power to win seven times at Charlotte while leading 1,735 laps in 29 starts, but his roll has slowed considerably, winning only twice in his last 22 starts. He won five of six races, including four straight, from 2003 to 2005. Last season, he finished 40th in this race and then 39th in the fall. He won at Atlanta in February, which runs similar to Charlotte, but his Charlotte dominance certainly isn’t what it used to be.

CHARLOTTE DROUGHT

Kyle Busch (6-1) has an impressive 10 top-fives in 24 starts, but doesn’t have a win — one of only two Cup tracks he’s never won at (Pocono is the other). His drought could be over Sunday because of winning a series-high three races this season, including the last two on 1.5-mile tracks.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (15-1) has the most Charlotte starts (32) with no wins among active drivers, which is puzzling because it’s his home track. He grew up in Carolina. His father started his first Cup race there and won five times over his career. It’s home, but he’s averaged a very mediocre 19.1 finish. He was ordinary in practice, but the reason to suggest he might be worth a shot to win is because of how well he performed at Atlanta and Texas, the two tracks that resemble Charlotte the most. His car got better as those races went on and he finished second in each. With another 100 miles, like Sunday’s race, he may have grabbed a win. Because of the poor practices, expect to get adjusted odds up to 20-1. There’s a lot worse things to spend $5 on.