NFL Week 4 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Joe D’Amico, @JoeDAmicoWins, sportsmemo.com
Bears (1-2) at Raiders (1-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Raiders -1, 48
Analysis: The Raiders aren’t a very good team. You could bring in all the new coaches, quarterbacks and running backs you want, but when the system isn’t working, it’s just not going to work no matter who is on the field. The Bears are coming off a 31-14 home victory over the Cowboys as small underdogs. I don’t think Chicago is in a letdown situation, as it’s facing a subpar team in Las Vegas with momentum. I expect a big game from Bears quarterback Caleb Williams against one of the NFL’s most porous pass defenses.
Pick: Bears 24, Raiders 21
Vikings (2-1) vs. Steelers (2-1), at Dublin
Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN
Line/total: Vikings -2½, 41
Analysis: The only difference between these 2-1 teams is that the Vikings have covered two of their three games, while the Steelers have covered one. I give Pittsburgh the advantage at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers over Carson Wentz. But Wentz will be aided by the return of wide receiver Jordan Addison, who will form a dangerous receiving duo with Justin Jefferson. Running back Jordan Mason will allow the Vikings to control the tempo. This game is going to be tight and probably low scoring. The difference will be the Minnesota defense, which allows only 18.7 points per game, while the Steelers have surrendered 25.7 ppg.
Pick: Vikings 21, Steelers 17
Eagles (3-0) at Buccaneers (3-0)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Eagles -3½, 44
Analysis: This is the only matchup of 3-0 teams, and Tampa Bay should have some confidence after winning and covering the past two meetings with Philadelphia at home. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield have shown some magic en route to their unbeaten starts. While Tampa Bay has been hit hard by injuries, the slow start of Philadelphia running back Saquon Barkley evens that out a bit. This game will come down to mistakes and value. The Bucs have yet to turn the ball over this season, and the line gives us value. Hurts is 1-3 against Tampa Bay, including a playoff loss.
Pick: Buccaneers 23. Eagles 21
Saints (0-3) at Bills (3-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -15, 48
Analysis: Laying double digits is always a scary thing to do in the NFL. But the unbeaten Bills (2-1 ATS) are no strangers to laying big numbers. When your opponent hasn’t won a game since early December (0-7 straight up, 2-5 ATS), laying more than two touchdowns isn’t so scary anymore. Granted, Buffalo is 1-10 ATS as a double-digit favorite, but I doubt this team lets up.
Pick: Bills 37, Saints 17
Panthers (1-2) at Patriots (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Patriots -5½, 43
Analysis: The Panthers finally blew out an opponent in last week’s 30-0 win over the Falcons. Carolina quarterback Bryce Young is 3-1 against Atlanta, but 4-23 against everybody else. Carolina is in a letdown situation against a Patriots team that’s starting to show signs of life. New England quarterback Drake Maye is becoming more comfortable at the helm, and its run defense has allowed only 60.3 yards per game, ranking second in the league.
Pick: Patriots 20, Panthers 13
Commanders (2-1) at Falcons (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -2, 43
Analysis: The favorite has flipped after Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels and wideout Terry McLaurin were ruled out with injuries. Will the Falcons show some pride after last week’s 30-0 loss to the Panthers? Their defense is respectable, but their offense is atrocious. What’s weird is they rank 19th in passing and sixth in rushing but only 31st in scoring.
Pick: Commanders 23, Falcons 20
Browns (1-2) at Lions (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Lions -10, 44½
Analysis: The Lions have won and covered two straight after their season-opening road loss to the Packers. Normally, I would look to fade a team after a high-profile road victory like Detroit had against Baltimore last week, but this team is just too good. Cleveland finally got its first win of the season against Green Bay. The Browns are averaging only 15.3 ppg, and I just don’t see them keeping pace with the Lions, who have scored 90 points the past two weeks. Detroit racked up seven sacks against elusive Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson last week and now faces 40-year-old Joe Flacco. Cleveland is on an 0-6 spread slide on the road.
Pick: Lions 27, Browns 13
Titans (0-3) at Texans (0-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -7, 39½
Analysis: This matchup of winless AFC South teams is one of the toughest to handicap. The Titans have lost nine straight while going 1-8 ATS since their 32-27 road win at Houston in November. But the Texans defeated Tennessee in January for the fourth time in the past five meetings.
Pick: Texans 19, Titans 10
Chargers (3-0) at Giants (0-3)
Time: 10 a.m., CBS
Line/total: Chargers -6½, 43½
Analysis: The Giants are replacing veteran starting quarterback Russell Wilson with rookie Jaxson Dart. The New York defense ranks among the worst in the league in every major category. Now they face Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Los Angeles lost running back Najee Harris, but rookie Omarion Hampton is more than capable. The Chargers are third in the league in scoring defense, allowing 16.7 ppg.
Pick: Chargers 23, Giants 13
Jaguars (2-1) at 49ers (3-0)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: 49ers -3½, 46½
Analysis: Brock Purdy will be back at quarterback for San Francisco, which has won its first three games with smoke and mirrors. The Jaguars’ 2-1 record is equally surprising. Jacksonville is tied for fifth in the NFL in scoring defense (17.0 ppg) and fourth in rushing defense (82.7 ypg). The 49ers, with very little ground game to speak of, are in trouble here. Their passing attack is tops in the NFL, but they have a quarterback coming off an injury facing a hungry pass defense. San Francisco also has a long injury list.
Pick: Jaguars 20, 49ers 19
Colts (3-0) at Rams (2-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Rams -3½, 49½
Analysis: The Rams’ second-half collapse last week against the Eagles cost them their third straight win. The Colts have won and covered all three games and rank in the top five in just about every major offensive category and top 10 in every major defensive category. Their offense has zero turnovers, and their defense has four takeaways. The 1-2 punch of Colts quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor will be a handful for the Rams defense.
Pick: Colts 23, Rams 21
Ravens (1-2) at Chiefs (1-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Ravens -3, 48½
Analysis: Two of the NFL’s highest-touted teams are each 1-2. Because Kansas City has had its way with Baltimore, gets the Ravens off a short week, is playing at home and getting points, you’re supposed to side with the home team here. But the Ravens have been more competitive in their games than the Chiefs, and Baltimore has too much offense for Kansas City to keep up with.
Pick: Ravens 31, Chiefs 24
Packers (2-1) at Cowboys (1-2)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Packers -6½, 46½
Analysis: Green Bay has dominated Dallas, winning and covering five consecutive meetings. The Packers are coming off their first loss and will be motivated. Edge rusher Micah Parsons makes his return to Dallas after getting traded to Green Bay before the season started. The Packers have the NFL’s top scoring defense (14.7 ppg). The Cowboys are last in the league against the pass (288.0 ypg) and 27th in scoring defense (30.7 ppg). Dallas is 10th in scoring (24.7 ppg) but has committed six turnovers. Parsons makes Dallas regret his departure.
Pick: Packers 27, Cowboys 20
Jets (0-3) at Dolphins (0-3)
Time: 4:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Dolphins -3, 44½
Analysis: The Jets’ winless record doesn’t reflect it, but they have started to put a decent product on the field. Justin Fields will return after missing Week 3 with a concussion, and the Dolphins defense has problems against dual-threat quarterbacks. Miami has lost seven of its past nine home games on “Monday Night Football” while going 2-7 ATS. The Dolphins are last in the league in scoring defense (32.3 ppg).
Pick: Jets 27, Dolphins 26
Bengals (2-1) at Broncos (1-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC
Line/total: Broncos -7½, 44½
Analysis: Cincinnati will look to rebound from a 48-10 road defeat to the Vikings, while Denver looks to get back on track after back-to-back losses. The Bengals beat the Broncos 30-24 in overtime in December. I’m not a big fan of Cincinnati backup quarterback Jake Browning. But until Denver quarterback Bo Nix shows he can lead this offense better, it’s hard for me to pull a trigger on this game.
Pick: Broncos 27, Bengals 20
