NFL Week 17 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

Scott Pritchard, PritchardsPicks.com, @pritchardwins

Giants (2-13) at Raiders (2-13)

* Time: 1:05 p.m., CBS

* Line/total: Giants -2, 41½

* Analysis: How does a team with a dismal record on the road (0-8) entice its fans to travel 2,500 miles to witness a game that could only have meaning if the team loses? That’s what’s at stake in this clash of teams tied for the worst record in the NFL. Though the loser will probably secure the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft, you have to believe professional and organizational pride trumps that dubious reward and generates a highly competitive and entertaining game. The Raiders’ above-average defense should stall out a below-average Giants offense, and Silver and Black quarterback Geno Smith reminds everyone why he was a Pro Bowl selection in 2022 and 2023, and set the Seahawks’ franchise record for passing yards and completions in a season in 2024.

* Pick: Raiders 23, Giants 20

Buccaneers (7-8) at Dolphins (6-9)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/total: Buccaneers -5½, 45½

* Analysis: The mighty Quinn Ewers, rookie quarterback from Texas, makes his second career start for the Dolphins against a Bucs team reeling from three straight losses of four points or less. Fortunately for Quinn, the Tampa Bay pass defense could be compared to papier-mâché, which should allow him to find his groove. But the Dolphins’ pass defense may be in even worse shape with starting, creating just enough slack for Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield to do the damage needed by air to escape with a win.

* Pick: Buccaneers 24, Dolphins 21

Patriots (12-3) at Jets (3-12)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/total: Patriots -13½, 43

* Analysis: A team looks in the abyss, and there’s nothing staring back at it. At that moment, the team finds its character, and that’s what keeps it out of the abyss. The Jets will need to find this wisdom from the movie “Wall Street” applicable, because their circumstances couldn’t be bleaker. They have lost three games in a row by at least 22 points each, and they’re starting an undrafted rookie quarterback in Brady Cook who has a 51.7 QB rating. New York faces a Patriots team armed with a perfect 7-0 road record, third-ranked passing offense and a stout sixth-ranked run defense to counter running back Breece Hall, the Jets’ primary offensive weapon. But the Patriots are pass-dependent, and an above average pass defense has been one of New York’s few bright spots. That and the home underdog aspect should lead to a close game and Jets cover.

* Pick: Patriots 24, Jets 17

Steelers (9-6) at Browns (3-12)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/total: Steelers -3, 33½

* Analysis: Pittsburgh’s running game awoke last week in Detroit with a 230-yard onslaught. If that wasn’t enough, the Browns run defense has been suspect the last three weeks, allowing an average of 163 yards rushing, which is worse than the Bengals’ league-worst rushing defense (156.0 yards per game allowed). On the flip side, Cleveland running back Quinshon Judkins is out for the season and quarterback Shedeur Sanders has a poor 67.5 passer rating. This all spells trouble for the Browns and an easy win and cover for the Steelers.

* Pick: Steelers 20, Browns 13

Cardinals (3-12) at Bengals (5-10)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/total: Bengals -7, 53

* Analysis: Arizona leads the NFL in one-score losses this season with seven, and it will probably be eight after this one for the following reasons: Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is fresh off eviscerating a 14th-ranked Dolphins’ pass defense in a 45-21 win and the Cardinals’ injury-depleted 23rd-rated defense is in shambles. However, the only thing worse than the Bengals’ 29th-ranked pass defense is their 32nd-ranked run defense, which means the Cardinals seventh-ranked passing offense will have a field day and keep this one close.

* Pick: Bengals 30, Cardinals 27

Saints (5-10) at Titans (3-12)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/total: Saints -2½, 39½

* Analysis: Titans running backs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have been “Running Backs Gone Wild” the last three games as they’ve led Tennessee to a 161-yard rushing average. They face the Saints’ injury-depleted 23rd-ranked rushing defense. On the other side of the ball, New Orleans is hampered by injuries, which will put the load on rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. The Titans defense is good enough to contain what’s left of this feeble Saints offense, and sneak away with the home ’dog win.

* Pick: Titans 20, Saints 16

Jaguars (11-4) at Colts (8-7)

* Time: 10 a.m., Fox

* Line/total: Jaguars -5½, 48½

* Analysis: Jacksonville has been a juggernaut against the spread, covering in six straight games. But this week in Indianapolis might be different, as the Jaguars are dealing with an array of injuries, giving the Colts’ fifth-ranked rushing defense less to manage. Rapidly improving Indy quarterback Philip Rivers will seek to capitalize on Jacksonville’s depleted secondary, and Colts running back Jonathan Taylor will put the Jags’ NFL-best rushing defense to the test. But in the end, “Hair Force One” quarterback Trevor Lawrence manages his Jaguars offense to the one-score win.

* Pick: Jaguars 27, Colts 21

Seahawks (12-3) at Panthers (8-7)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/total: Seahawks -7, 42½

* Analysis: The key number in this game? Nine. That’s how many games the Panthers have covered in a row when getting points against NFC opponents. This time won’t be easy as they face the NFL’s second-ranked scoring offense and, amazingly, the second-ranked scoring defense. But Carolina brings a solid rushing game and stingy scoring defense of its own to the table, which should put it in position for a book-bolstering backdoor cover.

* Pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 20

Eagles (10-5) at Bills (11-4)

* Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox

* Line/total: Bills -1, 44

* Analysis: The Bills are 6-1 at home, where they have covered against everyone except the Patriots. This game pits Buffalo’s No. 1-ranked rushing offense against an Eagles team that has struggled to stop the run. Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts will be disrupted by the Bills’ No. 2-ranked passing defense. The Eagles, who have already clinched the NFC East division title, don’t have as much to play for as the Bills, so a white flag could come out early if they find themselves significantly behind in this game.

* Pick: Bills 30, Eagles 20

Bears (11-4) at 49ers (11-4)

* Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC

* Line/total: 49ers -3, 52½

* Analysis: This heavyweight NFC clash pits two top teams against each other in a game with massive playoff-seeding implications. The visiting Bears boast the NFL’s second-best rushing offense (152.1 yards per game) and lead the league in takeaways (30) and turnover margin (+21). Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams (3,400 passing yards) is on pace to set the single-season franchise passing record (Erik Kramer’s 3,838 in 1995) for a franchise notably devoid of 4,000-yard passers. The 49ers counter with the eighth-ranked run defense and a top-tier offense that has averaged an NFL-best 34.4 points per game since Week 11. Both teams are dealing with injuries to key players, but with the 49ers’ balanced attack and home-field advantage, they should pull away in the second half.

* Pick: 49ers 34, Bears 17

Rams (11-4) at Falcons (6-9)

* Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

* Line/total: Rams -8, 49½

* Analysis: The high-flying Rams, who lead the league in scoring offense (30.5 points per game) and are second in total offense (396.7 yards per game), head to Atlanta to face a mediocre Falcons defense, which ranks 21st in the league in scoring. Los Angeles, which is coming off a 38-37 defeat to the Seahawks, has won 11 straight following a loss, and covered in seven straight against teams with a losing record. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (4,179 pass yards, 40 touchdowns) is the heavy favorite to win the NFL MVP, while star receiver Puka Nacua is an offensive player of the year award candidate with 1,592 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. The Falcons’ main weapon is running back Bijan Robinson, who has 1,250 rushing yards. Both teams are hampered by injuries but the Rams have superior talent on both sides of the ball, and will prevail to maximize their playoff seeding.

* Pick: Rams 30, Falcons 17