NFL wild-card playoffs betting: ‘Sharp money up in smoke’ as public wins

The betting public typically plays favorites while sharp bettors mostly back underdogs.

But the public has won on popular underdogs in the NFL wild-card playoffs, while sophisticated money has turned out to be as sharp as a marble.

“Sharp guys haven’t won a game since last weekend,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “A lot of the sharp money has gone up in smoke this weekend. It really shows you how tough this stuff is.”

Underdogs started 4-0 against the spread with three outright wins by the Chicago Bears (+1½, beat Green Bay Packers 31-27), Buffalo Bills (+1½, beat Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24) and San Francisco 49ers (+5½, beat Philadelphia Eagles 23-19), along with a cover by the Carolina Panthers (+10½, lost 34-31 to Los Angeles Rams).

The public also won on the New England Patriots (-3½), who were the only wild-card favorite to cover in a 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on “Sunday Night Football.”

Chicago trailed 21-3 at halftime and 21-6 after three quarters on Saturday night at Soldier Field before outscoring Green Bay 25-6 in the fourth quarter en route to its first playoff win in 15 years. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams threw a go-ahead 25-yard touchdown pass to DJ Moore with 1:43 remaining.

“We had every sharp account we have on Green Bay. The public just loved Chicago,” Murray said. “We really needed Green Bay to win. That was probably our biggest decision of the weekend.”

The public also was all over the Bears at STN Sports and Caesars Sportsbook, where a bettor won $115,500 on a live $105,000 wager on Chicago +4½ at +110.

Books lost Sunday on the Bills in a game where the favorite flipped from Buffalo to Jacksonville — which drew a lot of sharp action — and on the Niners in the biggest upset of the weekend.

Josh Allen converted a fourth down for the Bills on a 10-yard quarterback sneak to the 1, then scored a go-ahead touchdown on a 1-yard run with 1:04 left.

“We had a lot of Bills money and a lot of Niners money as well,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “The Niners, Bills and Bears were public ’dogs that generated a lot of play.”

Brock Purdy threw a go-ahead 4-yard touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey with 2:54 left to lift San Francisco and end Philadelphia’s bid to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

“Early in the week, we had a lot of wiseguys on Philly,” Murray said. “There was all kind of Philadelphia steam. That lost, too.

“I don’t know how the 49ers keep winning. I’ll be honest, I don’t even know who these guys playing for the team are. That’s a really bad loss for Philadelphia to lose that game at home.”

The best game for the books was Carolina, which covered as a double-digit home underdog to the Rams, who won on Matthew Stafford’s 19-yard touchdown pass to Colby Parkinson with 38 seconds left.

“For the book, Carolina’s strong effort versus the Rams was a favorable result,” Caesars head of football Joey Feazel said. “The anticipated high-scoring affair between the Jaguars and Bills lived up to expectations, which favored the bettors.”

All three Sunday games went under the total, with Buffalo-Jacksonville staying under 51½ by a half point, after both Saturday games went over.

Divisional lines

The line is pick’em for the Bills-Denver Broncos showdown in the AFC divisional round of the playoffs at Denver and the total is 46½. Buffalo blew out the Broncos 31-7 at home last season in their most recent meeting in the wild-card round.

The Seattle Seahawks are 7-point home favorites over the 49ers in the NFC divisional round in a rematch of NFL Week 18, when Seattle dominated San Francisco in a 13-3 road win. The total is 46.

“The Seahawks played a great game that night and still only won 13-3,” Esposito said.

The Rams are 4-point road favorites over the Bears, who have had seven fourth-quarter comebacks this season, and the total is 51. The teams haven’t played each other since Week 4 of last season, when Chicago won 24-18.

“The Bears are going to have to find a way to stop Stafford and (wideouts Puka) Nacua and (Davante) Adams and that offense,” Esposito said. “It is in Chicago and weather could be a factor. You can’t ever count a team out with that many comebacks.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.