Local economy flashes mixed signals

The local economy shows mixed signals in a new report covering a broad range of economic indicators.

The latest research from the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas found local improvement in early 2012 in areas including tourism and employment, even as retail sales and construction stumbled.

Overall, the figures point to economic recovery -- albeit a slow, uneven one, said Steve Brown, the center's director.
"There's enough going on that we're generally seeing growth, and we have a generally favorable outlook for growth," Brown said. "But compared to where we used to be, you could think of the local economy as being like a car that's not running on all of its cylinders."

Start with the bright spots.

The center's Southern Nevada Index of Coincident Economic Indicators, which tracks employment trends, showed substantial improvement, gaining more than 2 percent from February to March as more respondents to household employment surveys reported having work.

Also, the center's Southern Nevada Index of Leading Indicators ticked up 0.36 percent from February to March, as measures such as passenger counts through McCarran International Airport and the S&P 500 Index rose. Given the index's overall increase, the center forecasts continued economic gains in Southern Nevada through late summer.

The center's Clark County Business Activity Index, which gauges the county's taxable sales, employment and gaming revenue, declined 0.52 percent from December to January, driven by a 22.06 percent drop in taxable sales. It's normal for retail sales to fall from December to January, as consumers end holiday spending, but Brown said the most recent drop was a little more than usual.

Employment improved 0.88 percent from December to January, while gaming revenue rose 2.54 percent in the period.

The Business Activity Index was up 1.34 percent year over year in January.

The Clark County Tourism Index rose 0.6 percent from December to January, as gaming revenue, McCarran traffic and hotel-motel occupancy rates edged up. Year over year, the index was up 0.22 percent.

The Clark County Construction Index jumped nearly 6 percent from December to January, driven by increasing residential and commercial building permits. The sector saw employment drop 4.17 percent in the period. The index was up 2.7 percent year over year.

"Construction has generally stabilized at a very low level, with numbers way down from the peak," Brown said.

Still, it's possible local construction will increase in 2012, Brown added. He said he sees "a lot of interest" in new housing, as well as growing business in refurbishing commercial space for tenants trading up to higher-end suites.

"But construction will not look like it did," Brown said. "If we were on top of the mountain, and now we're down in a valley, we're going to stay in the valley even with small increases in building."

Contact reporter Jennifer Robison at jrobison@reviewjournal.com or 702-380-4512. Follow @J_Robison1 on Twitter.