Analysts address LV’s lagging recovery

Southern Nevada's economy must first move toward stabilization before it joins in the national recovery, an economic consultant for Nevada State Bank said Monday.

More than half of all states showed employment gains in April compared with March and two-thirds showed lower unemployment rates, but Nevada was not among them, said Jeff Thredgold, principal of Clearfield, Utah-based Thredgold Economic Associates.

Adding to the nation's economic anxiety are glum financial situations in Greece and now Hungary, and concerns about the long-term impact from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, Thredgold said after a presentation to the Nevada Bankers Association convention at the J.W. Marriott.

"Two things have to happen. One is the return of U.S. economic growth and the other is the return of global economic growth," the consultant said. "Basically, the U.S. recovery has been in place for 10 or 11 months. Wall Street knows that. Main Street probably does not. People in Las Vegas don't see it."

Las Vegas sees mixed results from key economic indicators, which is better than all of them being in the red as they were six months ago, Jeremy Aguero of Applied Analysis business advisory firm said.

Visitor volume increased 1.5 percent in the first quarter from a year ago and automobile traffic on Interstate 15 to Las Vegas is up 3.1 percent, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reported.

However, visitors are gambling less, paying discounted hotel rates and staying away from high-end retailers and restaurants.

The looming problem is how to create more jobs in Las Vegas, Aguero said. Some 40,000 jobs have been lost in the past year. The region relied on unsustainable growth and new construction, and now has to adjust to economic reality, he said.

"We can't grow like we grew before," Aguero said. "We're going to have to change our expectations a little bit. As the economy starts to shift, this becomes the new reality. This is the way things are probably going to be for quite a long while."

Aguero said we've seen the "bookends" of the hotel building boom, beginning with The Mirage in 1989 and culminating with the opening of CityCenter in December.

Five years ago, Clark County Aviation Department officials were talking about how fast they needed to bring a new airport to Ivanpah Valley. Now people are questioning whether McCarran International Airport really needs a third terminal, Aguero said.

"It's amazing how dialogue has changed," he said.

Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.