Here Come the Shoppers

Consumers are skittish about spending, worried about their jobs, and retailers are trying to squeeze every dime they can out of them during a holiday shopping season that's forecast to be one of the flattest in years.

Most stores are dangling generous discounts and early bird bargains to draw big crowds on Black Friday, traditionally the busiest shopping day of the season and the day that takes retailers out of the red and into the black.

Toys R Us opened the minute the clock struck midnight Thursday, enticing customers with 70 doorbusters and 100 unadvertised "mystery deals."

Disney Store at Las Vegas Premium Outlets also planned to open at midnight, offering 20 percent off any purchase for the first 10 hours. A Mickey Mouse plush toy was being sold for $5 with a $40 purchase, while supplies last.

Radio Shack got a bead on Black Friday by staying open on Thanksgiving Day.

It's all part of the retail industry's aggressive marketing efforts to dig into the wallets of tight-budgeted Americans. Black Friday advertisements for some of the nation's major retailers were rumored to be "leaked" before they ran.

Target, Wal-Mart, Kmart, Sears, Best Buy, CVS, Staples, Kohl's, Lowe's and Ace Hardware are among the big names looking to capture some of the 134 million shoppers estimated to stampede stores today and over the weekend.

"It's really one of the biggest shopping days of the year, but every day is important during the holiday season," Toys R Us spokesman Bob Friedland said from corporate headquarters in New Jersey.

The hottest Christmas toy this year is the Zhu Zhu Pet Hamster that sells for $10, not including accessories, he said. Kids can choose from five individual hamster personalities that interact with each other in different environments.

A 28-page Black Friday circular from Toys R Us came out in newspapers Thursday and online at Toysrus.com, offering more than $6,500 in combined savings.

"It's about providing incredible value to our customers," Friedland said. "They're looking for the hottest products and the greatest deals."

Midnight openings appear to be a national retail trend for Black Friday this year, said Jim Fielding, president of Disney Store Worldwide. The openings allowed shoppers to start their holiday shopping earlier and are a good method of crowd control, he said.

"It's very important for us because our stores are not that large," Fielding said. "It spreads out the shopping over a longer period and we can manage the line."

Disney Store has always been a popular destination for toy shoppers on Black Friday, Fielding said. This year's favorite toys are based on "The Princess and the Frog" and "Toy Story" movies.

The Disney retail executive wouldn't disclose projections for storewide holiday sales, but he said the company is more "strategically prepared" than last year with its promotions and understanding of consumer spending patterns.

A shopping survey conducted by BIGresearch for the National Retail Federation found that 57 million people said they will definitely shop this morning, while another 77 million are waiting to see what retailers are planning before heading out.

"Regardless of what we've already seen these last few weeks in terms of promotions, retailers still have a few tricks up their sleeves to excite Black Friday shoppers," National Retail Federation President Tracy Mullin said.

Discount and department stores will attract the most consumers this weekend with 66.3 percent and 62.4 percent, respectively, the shopping survey shows. They're followed by electronic stores (41 percent), clothing and accessories stores (36.3 percent) and grocery stores (28.8 percent).

An increasing number of retailers are offering Black Friday specials on their Web sites, driving 27.6 percent of consumers to shop online. Disney Stores launched a strong social media campaign this year on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube.

The Retail Association of Nevada is forecasting $1.2 billion in holiday spending throughout the state, based on the latest Gallup poll that showed American adults will spend an average of $638 on Christmas gifts. That figure was revised downward from $740 in an earlier poll and is about equal to the spending prediction of $639 reported in December 2008.

"Regardless of overall spending levels, what is key for each individual retailer is whether it can break into the black, which is dependent on its individual sourcing strategy, cost structure and profitability margins," said Jeremy Aguero, principal of Las Vegas business advisory firm Applied Analysis.

A poll from Consumer Reports showed that half of Americans plan to hit brick-and-mortar stores and online retailers Black Friday weekend, with 66 percent of those people reporting that they would be shopping for themselves.

Consumer Reports also found that Black Friday is not the only important shopping day of the holiday weekend. Just as many adults plan to shop on Black Friday (28 percent) as they do on either the following Saturday or Sunday (29 percent).

The concern that retailers could run out of desired items may motivate consumers who normally procrastinate to start their shopping earlier this year. Karabus Management, a Toronto-based retail advisory firm, is reporting inventory down 8 percent to 13 percent for midprice clothing and down 10 percent to 15 percent for home furnishings.

Not only are retailers keeping inventories lower than last year, products advertised in doorbusting Black Friday sales may not be available later in the day, let alone at discount prices offered in the early morning hours.

"Cost-conscious shoppers need to strike a balance between waiting for ever-better sales prices versus waiting too long and finding that the item is sold out because retailers have cut back on inventory," Retail Association of Nevada President Mary Lau said.

October sales left mixed signals for retailers hoping for some momentum heading into the Christmas shopping season. Some categories gained while others demonstrated weakness. Overall, retail sales were flat compared with September and down 1.3 percent from a year ago, the National Retail Federation reported.

Although categories such as apparel, sporting goods, books, music and personal care fared well, housing-related categories such as furniture and home improvement continued to struggle.

"Though the October numbers show some signs of optimism for retailers, the industry is still not out of the woods," federation chief economist Rosalind Wells said.

Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.