LV economy gauge rises in November

With nearly a 9 percent gain in gaming revenue and spikes in commercial and residential building permits, the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators turned up in November to 133.06, a local economist said.

The index's forecast for the first quarter of 2008 remains mixed, signaling neither expansion nor contraction, said Keith Schwer, director of UNLV's Center for Business and Economic Research.

The index has moved mostly sideways since reaching 130 in March 2005. It started this year at 132.98 and peaked at 133.46 in September.

"You've got to give it a little wiggle room," Schwer said Wednesday. "It hasn't dropped enough from its peak to be significant. There's a lot of adjustment. You have to allow for a confidence band around that."

The index, compiled by the research center at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, is a six-month economic forecast from the month of the data, based on a net-weighted average of each series after adjustment for seasonal variation.

The accompanying Review-Journal chart includes several of the index's categories, along with data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

Seven of the index's 10 indicators contributed to the positive movement, led by an 8.8 percent increase in September's gross gaming revenue. Taxable sales and residential building permits also drove the index upward.

"Remember, again, that's on September data," Schwer said. "It's always a two-month lag because we need to have all these indicators in. It takes about a month for everybody to get their data completed."

The number of new residents moving to Las Vegas, based on out-of-state driver's licenses turned into the Department of Motor Vehicles, has declined about 10 percent from a year ago, he said. October's data fell 19.2 percent to 5,196 new residents.

"Again, it's anecdotal information on the number of people moving out," Schwer said. "If you take U-Haul and United Van Lines, they'll tell you about 60 percent of their business is (moving) in and 40 percent is out, so that's another factor that suggests fairly robust net for them."

Housing analyst Dennis Smith of Home Builders Research reported 1,840 new home permits in October, more than double the 860 from the same month a year ago.

He said the number is "skewed" because of a new building code that took effect Nov. 1. Since permits are good for six months, builders purchased a "stockpile" of permits under the old code.

"Something like this happens every so often, which is another good example of why the month-to-month comparisons are not a good assessment of the market," Smith said.

Overall, residential permits are down 20.7 percent through October at 15,750, Home Builders Research reported.

A third-quarter indicator brief published by the Clark County Monitoring Program highlighted instability in the residential market, including industry layoffs and foreclosure and resale inventories at record levels.

Industry sources put the number of layoffs as high as 10,000 to 12,000. Statewide employment data would tend to suggest that the majority of these employees have "transitioned swiftly" into other sectors, principally commercial construction, the CCMP publication said.

However, the unemployment rate has continued to climb to 5.1 percent in October, compared with 4 percent a year ago.

Further out, Strip projects nearing completion will create large numbers of jobs and stimulate demand for housing, Schwer said. In the meantime, the CBER Clark County Construction Index will remain below its peak of 2004.

Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or (702) 383-0491.