The future’s in the numbers for Southern Nevada real estate researcher

Larry Murphy is hunkered down at his home computer in his digs at One Queensridge Place, poring over the latest Las Vegas housing statistics and tracking prices that have mostly been falling every month for the past year.

These are not good numbers for his 1,000 clients, most of whom are real estate agents, home builders, appraisers and lenders.

Murphy, president of SalesTraq, a Las Vegas-based housing research firm, makes his living deciphering and analyzing information that shows the latest trends in housing sales and prices.

In addition to supplying monthly housing statistics, Murphy presents the quarterly Crystal Ball seminar with business partner and consultant Steve Bottfeld of Marketing Solutions and conducts independent feasibility studies for planned residential projects.

"We haven't been exactly right in predicting the future, but who has?" Murphy said. "Steve and I know we have to be accountable and we recognize the responsibility we have because a lot of people are making decisions based on what we present. That's why, when I make a mistake, it pains me to no end."

Murphy, a Vietnam War veteran and former weapons system officer on F-4 Phantom fighter jets, was stationed at Nellis Air Force Base and got into real estate after his honorable discharge in 1978. He followed his mentor, Mark Micevic, who started Americana Group Realtors in 1979.

The new home market was emerging as a large segment of the housing market and it was hard to keep track of all the new subdivisions, which had grown to about 100 in the early 1990s. Now there are more than 500, Murphy said.

That's when he met Don Brown, an accountant by trade with a master's degree who had written a computer program for his Realtor wife to track new home subdivisions.

"I don't want to use the word 'genius,' but he was a brainy guy, very intelligent," Murphy said. "These were in the days of DOS. You had to type in commands. It was butt-ugly, but it worked."

Unfortunately, it didn't sell. Brown had maybe 15 clients and was ready to give up the business when Murphy struck a deal to join the firm and market the program. He became sole owner of SalesTraq when Brown retired in 1999.

Question: Why did you get into the business?

Answer: He (Brown) had actually moved to Phoenix and he called me and said he was going to discontinue the service because the customer base wasn't what he thought it would be. That sent a panic through me because I used the program every day. I thought "What am I going to do?" He was just not able to sell enough to make it worthwhile. Word-of-mouth won't work because I'm at Americana. I'm not going to tell Century 21 about it. We did a 50-50 partnership. I'd do the marketing and he'd do the program.

Question: How did you increase business and take it from 15 clients to 1,000?

Answer: I did it largely through training courses. Yes, I advertise in the monthly Realtor magazine and my Web site is my storefront. People can sign up for SalesTraq and of course we have more products. We've got the high-rise handbook, the Fast Facts monthly newsletter and I also became part of the Crystal Ball seminar. I partnered five years ago with Steve Bottfeld. He invited me as guest speaker, and I've been guest speaker ever since.

My wife, Sharon, sold her catering business and took over the organizational duties, marketing and registration from Bottfeld's wife (Marcia) when she retired.

We had our maximum attendance of over 1,000 in January 2006 and this last one was 350, so the seminar business is just like SalesTraq business. It rises and falls with the market.

Question: What is your mission at SalesTraq?

Answer: I'm trying to help my clients and I'm trying myself to understand what the real status of the real estate market is. I want to provide accurate, pertinent and useful information for people who need good information to make good decisions in the housing industry.

Question: You throw out a lot of numbers. What do they mean and do you ever get lost in the numbers?

Answer: There's a television show about a guy who solves murder mysteries by analyzing numbers. If there's one thing I'm guilty of, it's expecting too much of the numbers. It's easy to get lost in the numbers. It's easy to get married to the numbers. The greater truth is you've got to back away from the numbers and try to look at the whole scenario and see what's the climate, what's the weather making those numbers. You have to take housing stats in context with the greater economy. I tend to be a numbers kind of guy. Bottfeld doesn't care how many decimal points we carry out the numbers. He's more of a big-picture guy.

Question: We've all heard that statistics can lie. Can you manipulate them to say what you want?

Answer: Absolutely. Go back to the Cold War when the Russians said their guy came in second in the world in weightlifting. What they don't tell you is there were only two people in the competition. If you manipulate the parameters of time, frequency and population, you can come up with any answer you want. You can hire me and I'll give you any answer you want and we'll prove it with stats. All we have to do is manipulate the variables.

Question: If you weren't president of SalesTraq, what else might you be doing?

Answer: It would involve public speaking. When I worked for Mark Micevic, he traveled around the country and taught Realtors how to sell real estate, how to manage their time. He was so effective at inspiring people to do well in their job.

He had the best leadership ability I'd seen inside or outside the Air Force. He told me you can't just give orders out here. You have to make people want to come to your meetings. That's leadership. I went through an apprenticeship and became a senior instructor for the National Association of Realtors and went around the country teaching real estate courses.

Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.