HAS LAS VEGAS JUMPED THE SHARK?

There comes a moment in nearly every popular television show's history when, like a pandering politician, it will do anything just to get people to like it.

That's when the show surpasses the entertaining threshold and enters into the realm of ridiculousness, bringing in cute kids, fluffy animals, outrageous stunts, even aliens from outer space, all in an effort to retain its popularity. At that point, a show is said to have "jumped the shark." (The term refers to a 1970s episode of "Happy Days" in which the character Fonzie -- in leather jacket and water skis -- does just that.)

But what is it called when a city does the same thing? When it goes so far that it becomes a parody of itself, mixing a pastiche of attractions into a pot, hoping to cook up a popularity stew that everyone wants to taste?

That's called Las Vegas. And, according to trend watchers, Sin City is "jumping the shark" right now. But that's not necessarily a bad thing.

"I think Las Vegas is unique because it's jumped the shark so much in the past but it always came back with something completely fresh and new," says David Schwartz, director of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas Gaming Studies Research Center. "It's continually remaking itself and I think that's the appeal of the city."

Gone are the kitsch and campy. Luxury hotels have beaten back themed casinos and "family fun." Cirque du Soleil shows dominate Strip stages while animal illusion acts are practically extinct. The past few years have seen the proliferation of nightclubs, topless swimming pools, poker rooms and high-end shopping malls. Casino-based hotels have taken a back seat to high-rise condominiums.

"It seems to me this is what we are, a constant renewal," says Felicia Campbell, a popular culture expert and longtime professor at UNLV. "Anything to be cutting edge. Whether we can keep doing it remains to be seen. Ever since I've been here people have been saying it's overbuilt."

Campbell moved here in 1962.

In the next five years, the Strip will hit capacity in several aspects, though, including rooms and convention space, predicts Bill Lerner, gaming analyst for Deutsche Bank.

"Some might say there are too many nightclubs or too many restaurants now," Lerner says. "It won't impact visitation but things might become more affordable because of it. So from a consumer aspect it's probably OK."

In Las Vegas, it's always possible that what is popular today will be replaced by something developers hope becomes popular tomorrow. The risk, of course, is that one day it will all be too much. Or not enough.

"It's interesting because in certain ways, Las Vegas exists as a shark-jumping place," says historian Michael Green. "I think it has to top itself to remain competitive."

Bumping right against the boundary of incredulity is necessary in a society in which people expect things to be better and faster in a search for instant gratification, Green adds. Eventually, though, people reach a threshold and require more to attain the same level of satisfaction.

For instance, Bellagio opening in 1998 was a much-anticipated spectacle that drew tens of thousands of people. Local news channels even broadcast the opening live. When Palazzo opened in January, it drew crowds but the typical excitement surrounding a new property seemed to die down quickly, Green says. The economy could account for some of that, but there's also a sense that the public is holding its collective breath, waiting to exhale only after it has been wowed again.

"It's the attitude that, oh, you've seen one luxury hotel, they're all the same. How do you make this one different?" Green says. "We can also become inured to celebrity, too. It becomes a little less exciting to say 'Oh, look, there's Wayne.' "

And if anything is possible in Las Vegas it can't continue to be shocking.

"It's a normal way of life now," 10-year resident Karl Flosbach says of Las Vegas. "You become jaded."

Flosbach is having drinks with two friends, Dylan Harris and Luke Brinkman, on a recent Wednesday at one of the trendiest lounges in town, Blue Martini. Right now, it has a hyper buzz surrounding it, but that's the way it is with the new place in town; everyone wants a piece of it until the next cool thing comes along.

Nightclubs, Flosbach says, are nothing more than money extractors, where you have to pay $500 for a bottle of booze and the privilege to sit down. Golf courses are outrageously expensive, too, adds Harris.

Those are just two examples where Las Vegas has gone too far in recent years, maybe even past the point of return, says Harris, 26. Affordable housing is another.

But it's not all bad, says Brinkman, 25. There's poker and partying with friends and happy hour. Their generation, he adds, comes to Las Vegas for different reasons, which seem to change as often as the Strip skyline.

"If you would have talked to me 10 years ago, I would have said Las Vegas was over," says Flosbach, 31. "That's when they were on the kids and family kick. Now it's returned to being adult-focused, so I think it still has hope."

Everything goes through phases, Green says. Atlantic City was once the place to go but it experienced a fallow period. Las Vegas has been in a kind of limbo for months now with a poor economy sapping the spending power of tourists and locals. Major projects CityCenter, Fontainebleau and Echelon are unfinished.

But once they open, those projects, with an Elvis-themed Cirque show, millions of dollars invested in fine art and cutting-edge design in architecture, will only add to Las Vegas' reputation for ostentation, even while increasing the level of sophistication on the Strip.

"We can be so out there that we are over the top," Green says. "On the other hand, Las Vegas reflects society. You don't attract 40 million people a year by making them uncomfortable. We're not going to have activities and attractions that make you feel ill at ease for the most part."

Contact reporter Sonya Padgett at spadgett@ reviewjournal.com or 702-380-4564.