Nevada Legislature to see big changes after 2016 election

CARSON CITY — New political opportunities, term limits and retirements will combine to produce significant changes to the makeup of the Nevada Legislature in the 2016 election year.

The changes have serious ramifications for political control over the Assembly and Senate, both now in Republican hands for the first time since 1985.

All 42 Assembly seats and 10 of the 21 Senate seats are up for grabs next year. And some Republicans who voted for tax increases in Gov. Brian Sandoval's budget have already drawn conservative challengers.

Two members of the Assembly, former minority leader Marilyn Kirkpatrick and Harvey Munford, both Southern Nevada Democrats, served their last sessions in 2015 due to term limits. Kirkpatrick's political career continues, however, as a recent appointee to the Clark County Commission.

Other members of the Legislature, including Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, R-Henderson, and Sen. Ruben Kihuen, D-Las Vegas, have announced runs for Congress. But because both are in the middle of their four-year Senate terms, they could return to the Legislature in 2017 if they lose their congressional bids.

First-term Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman, R-Las Vegas, will vacate her District 34 seat to make a bid for the state Senate seat held by fellow Republican Mark Lipparelli. Lipparelli, appointed to the District 6 seat, has not yet announced his intentions.

Three Republican lawmakers, all from Reno, have decided to end their legislative careers: Assembly members Pat Hickey and Randy Kirner and Sen. Greg Brower.

Another potential retiree is Assemblyman Lynn Stewart, R-Henderson, who said last week he has not yet made up his mind. If he runs and wins, his next term would be his last in the Assembly because of term limits.

Stewart said his decision won't be based on a primary challenge. Richard Bunce, a conservative Republican, has already announced a run against Stewart. Bunce also ran against the lawmaker in 2014.

"I always have a challenger in the primary," Stewart said. "I beat him by 18 points in 2014, and if I do run again I think I would win. I think I've done a pretty decent job over the five sessions I've been in the Legislature."

Stewart said he supported Sandoval's budget "to bring Nevada into the 21st century."

'Ugly primaries'

The turnover heading into the 2017 session will be even greater if some incumbents lose next year, either in the primary or the November general election.

Sen. Tick Segerblom, in reacting to the news of the Republican retirements last week, expressed concern that some moderate Republicans are opting not to run instead of facing conservative GOP challengers in the primary.

Hickey, Kirner and Brower all voted for Sandoval's budget, including $1.4 billion in new taxes.

Seaman is challenging Lipparelli at least in part because he too supported Sandoval's budget and tax plan.

"I think conservative Republicans are geared up to make sure that doesn't happen again," Segerblom said of the successful tax vote. "Hopefully the Democrats will retake the Assembly and it won't be an issue."

With a low turnout expected in the primary election, conservative challengers could emerge victorious and tilt the Assembly GOP caucus to the far right, Segerblom said.

Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno said the turnover is less about term limits this cycle than the political ambition of those seeking higher office and the controversy over the tax hike votes.

"The split in the Republican party is as bad as ever," Herzik said. "You are going to have some ugly primaries."

Republicans who supported Sandoval's tax and budget plan include Roberson, who faces three other candidates in a GOP primary for the 3rd Congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev. Heck is running for Harry Reid's U.S. Senate seat.

The new normal

Turnover will also come about in some of the Assembly seats won by Republicans in the "freakish" 2014 GOP sweep, Herzik said. That year, the GOP went from a 15-27 minority to a 25-17 majority. Unless that juggernaut is repeated, Republicans will likely lose at least four seats in Southern Nevada.

That could bring about a 21-21 split in the Assembly, a scenario that played out in 1995 when the two parties shared power.

"The turnover cuts both ways," Herzik said. "It does provide new perspectives, and it can break up these entrenched lawmakers who win simply because it is too difficult to take them out. But with too many new people, you really see some mistakes. You see these 'what are they doing' type bills being introduced."

Turnover became the new normal for the Legislature when term limits took effect a few years ago, forcing out many long-serving lawmakers.

The class of 2015 had 20 new members, mostly thanks not to term limits but to 2014's unexpected Republican sweep, which ousted several Democratic incumbents.

Hickey said he would likely have won had he decided to run again, but decided instead to call it a day.

"I felt that I had served an adequate amount of time," he said. "I also felt that the last session was very successful. We accomplished a lot of what I had always advocated for in terms of education reforms."

Hickey, who had served in the Assembly once before in the 1997 session, said he also knows from that experience that "there is life beyond the Legislature."

The legislative turnover, due in part to term limits, allows for an infusion of new energy and new talent, he said.

"I do understand we do lose some institutional knowledge and experience of process when we have senior members either retire or be term limited," Hickey said. "But until the Nevada voting public wants to revisit that, that is just the reality."

Contact Sean Whaley at swhaley@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3900. Find him on Twitter: @seanw801.