Even with hot Adrian Peterson, Vikings a risky pick against Bears

After a slow start, Adrian Peterson is off and running, and the Minnesota Vikings are beginning to become the threat they were expected to be in the NFC.

Nothing positive was in the forecast for the Chicago Bears, who have two wins as the calendar turns to November. New coach John Fox is searching for a turning point, and he might find it today at Soldier Field.

The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall is betting on the Bears as 1-point underdogs to the Vikings, who improved to 4-2 and covered their fifth straight game with a win at Detroit a week ago. Chicago is off the bye, which is one positive for Fox.

"Fox has a history of success off bye weeks, in which he has posted a 10-3 record in past seasons with Carolina and Denver," Marshall said. "Minnesota's emergence as a legitimate playoff contender continues to unfold, but laying even a short price on the road appears an unnecessary risk."

Marshall considers the Vikings risky because they have not won in Chicago since 2007, and their victory over the Lions stopped a five-game road losing streak. On the positive side, Teddy Bridgewater passed for a season-high 316 yards last week, and Peterson ranks fourth in the NFL with 530 yards rushing.

"While still leaky versus the pass, the Chicago defense has upgraded under new coordinator Vic Fangio," Marshall said.

Matt Forte, sixth in the league with 507 yards rushing, leads a Chicago offense that has shown a spark even with Jay Cutler producing mediocre numbers.

"Cutler is looking increasingly comfortable in the quarterback-friendly offense, especially with top target Alshon Jeffery back in the fold," Marshall said.

"And in a close game, the Bears have an ace in hand with deadly kicker Robbie Gould, who's 15-for-15 on field goals this season."

Marshall (Goldsheet.com) scouts the rest of today's Week 8 schedule:

Detroit vs. Kansas City (-3½) at London: One of these days the fans in London might rebel against teams like these being sent to Wembley Stadium instead of the Packers, Patriots or Broncos. Andy Reid and Jim Caldwell are both on coaching hot seats of varying degrees. But the Lions' ills seem to be more acute, especially with a banged-up offensive line having trouble protecting Matthew Stafford, who was sacked seven times last week by the Vikings. Meanwhile, the emergence of running back Charcandrick West suggests Kansas City might be able to somewhat minimize Jamaal Charles' absence. I'll side with the Chiefs, the likely lesser of these two evils.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-7): The Buccaneers are no longer an automatic go-against as long as rookie quarterback Jameis Winston cuts down his mistakes, as was the case in the past two games. But with only a handful of NFL games under his belt, Winston still makes Tampa Bay a risky proposition, and let's see how the young Bucs respond after blowing a big lead at Washington last week. Note that Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan torched Lovie Smith's defense in a pair of easy wins a year ago, and anything close to a repeat performance suggests Atlanta can handle this reasonable price.

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (-3): The Saints appear to have rediscovered something in recent weeks, winning and covering three of their past four, including a re-establishment of the Superdome as a fortress after a puzzling six-game home losing streak. Drew Brees getting back to near 100 percent has helped, but the difference has been Rob Ryan's defense, which recorded nine sacks over the past two weeks in wins versus Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck. Eli Manning's last game in his hometown resulted in a 49-24 loss in 2011. The Giants continue to be bothered by inconsistencies. Both offenses are moving rather freely, so over the total (49½) is a slightly preferred call to the New Orleans side.

San Francisco at St. Louis (-8½): Even when the 49ers were flying high, the Rams were often a difficult hurdle. And that was before St. Louis added a sharp edge offensively with rookie running back Todd Gurley, who has completely changed the dynamics in recent games and taken some of the offensive burden off quarterback Nick Foles. The robust Rams defense has been able to keep Colin Kaepernick pinned in the pocket, and with the 49ers scoring an NFL-low 14.7 points per game, I don't mind laying points with St. Louis.

Arizona (-5½) at Cleveland: Though quarterback Josh McCown's shoulder injury is apparently not severe enough to put Johnny Manziel into the Cleveland starting lineup, last week's limp effort at St. Louis reminded of the stretch drive last season when coach Mike Pettine could not pull the Browns out of a skid. There are more offensive options at Carson Palmer's disposal, and Arizona should be able to run effectively with the revitalized Chris Johnson against a Cleveland rush defense allowing a hefty 5.1 yards per carry. Along with a Cardinals recommendation, over 46 is perhaps worth a look as these teams have gone over the total in 11 of 14 combined games this season.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (Pick): All things considered, the Steelers did as well as could be expected with quarterbacks Michael Vick and Landry Jones splitting their four starts. But with Ben Roethlisberger ready to return, and likely teaming with running back Le'Veon Bell and wideout Martavis Bryant for the first time this season, Pittsburgh still has time to get back into the AFC North race. I'm not convinced Cincinnati is ready to wrap up the division in early November. Note that the Bengals have won and covered only one of their past five at Heinz Field, where Andy Dalton has rarely excelled. With Roethlisberger available, shade the Steelers, and also look over 48½. Pittsburgh is 7-2 over the total in its past nine at home with Big Ben in the lineup.

San Diego at Baltimore (-3½): While coach John Harbaugh remains safe despite the Ravens' dismal start, AFC West sources are suggesting his San Diego counterpart Mike McCoy might be in some trouble as the Chargers (2-5) are dangerously close to falling out of contention by midseason. Before consigning the Chargers to the dustbin, however, give Philip Rivers a chance to delay San Diego's eventual surrender by taking advantage of an injury-depleted defense that bears little resemblance to recent Baltimore playoff editions.

Tennessee at Houston (-4½): At this stage, the Titans do not lose too much with Zach Mettenberger in at quarterback for the hurting but still-learning Marcus Mariota. But since winning last year's opener at Kansas City, Tennessee has prevailed only twice, beating the Jaguars and Buccaneers for coach Ken Whisenhunt. Even with the current distractions in Houston, including running back Arian Foster's season-ending injury, the Texans appear the more likely of these two to bounce back from defeat.

N.Y. Jets (-3) at Oakland: Two of the season's pleasant surprises, these teams recall days of the AFL and the 1968 "Heidi Game" for old-timers. A slight edge to the Jets, who thus far have been able to enjoy the pleasant Dr. Jekyll side of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose Mr. Hyde side of years past only resurfaced briefly in the late September loss to the Eagles. New coach Todd Bowles' defense has the cover guys in the secondary to stick with the improved collection of Raiders receivers led by electric Alabama rookie Amari Cooper. Over the total (44) is also worth a look with the Jets scoring 25.3 points per game and Oakland going over in seven of the past 10 at the Coliseum.

Seattle (-5½) at Dallas: Wide receiver Dez Bryant is expected to return for the Cowboys. But it's looking as if the season could slip away from Dallas before Tony Romo returns, as neither Brandon Weeden nor Matt Cassel have provided effective relief out of the bullpen while other distractions and frustrations continue to mount. A recent win at San Francisco might be the buy signal many Seattle backers have been waiting for, and remember that coach Pete Carroll's teams have shifted gears in November in each of the past three seasons. Lay the points with Russell Wilson against a Cowboys side on a four-game straight-up and spread losing streak.

Green Bay (-3) at Denver: While new coach Gary Kubiak's offense continues to look like a poor fit for Peyton Manning in Denver, the Wade Phillips defense has become a force in its own right, scoring touchdowns almost every week and bailing out the Broncos on a regular basis. It's doubtful even Aaron Rodgers is going to find his receivers with consistency against the sticky-covering Denver secondary featuring shutdown corners Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. Getting a few points, I'm compelled to back Denver, which is 24-2 at home in the regular season since Manning's arrival. The Packers are 14-12 straight up on the regular-season road during that same span.

— Compiled by Matt Youmans/Las Vegas Review-Journal