Expect Alabama-Clemson CFP rematch, but Oklahoma can cover
The entire season has seemed like a prelude to Alabama-Clemson IV, and we’re just two games away from that reality.
Alabama has been a 14-point favorite over Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff semifinals since the beginning of December. But I took the Sooners then and I still recommend them now.
Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (ankle) had minor surgery after the SEC championship game and said this week he is “80 to 85 percent” ahead of Saturday’s showdown.
There are three scenarios that could play out: 1. Tagovailoa is not at all limited; 2. Tagovailoa plays but is not his best; or 3. Jalen Hurts takes a lot of snaps. I think an ineffective Tagovailoa is the most dangerous for Alabama (see: Georgia game) but 14 points seems like too many in two of those three scenarios.
Because of Oklahoma’s lethal offense, led by dual-threat Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray, I also expect Alabama to play keep-away if possible. Army did that so well against the Sooners earlier this season. The Sooners are 99th in stuff rate and 126th in passing marginal efficiency. Alabama can pound the ball on the ground, mix in some short, easy completions and keep Oklahoma’s offense on the sideline.
But fewer possessions will make it tough to win by more than two touchdowns. And Alabama’s starting left guard Deonte Brown, who had been instrumental in an improved running game, is suspended.
Plus, since 2005, double-digit bowl underdogs are plus 24.7 units.
Four more plays:
Clemson (-12½) over Notre Dame: I’m not worried about the Dexter Lawrence suspension. Clemson allows 2.4 yards per carry and is arguably the second-best rush defense of the past decade behind 2016 Alabama. The Tigers’ defensive line is the deepest in the country, and the absence of Lawrence is now baked into the market. Notre Dame’s defense will compete. The entire handicap revolves around Clemson’s pass defense. The Tigers’ sack rate is sixth nationally, while Notre Dame’s offensive sack rate is 58th. Clemson’s secondary can be suspect, but expect Ian Book to face intense pressure.
Mississippi State (-7) over Iowa: The Bulldogs fielded the SEC’s best defense this season loaded with NFL prospects. Iowa runs an offense from the 1960s. The Hawkeyes’ strength is short, efficient passes from Nate Stanley to his tight ends. I’ll be surprised if Iowa scores more than 14 points, and Nick Fitzgerald will eventually wear down the Hawkeyes in his final college game.
Penn State (-6) over Kentucky: Congratulations to Mark Stoops and the Wildcats on a surprising season. But Kentucky went 4-3 in its last seven games, including very fortunate wins of 14-7 over Vanderbilt and 15-14 over Missouri, a 24-7 loss to Tennessee and a very competitive game against Middle Tennessee State. The Wildcats are one-dimensional on offense, and this is QB Trace McSorley’s last college game for the Nittany Lions, who have won five of six with a loss at Michigan.
Utah (-7) over Northwestern: The short list of coaches I blindly trust with my money in bowl games includes Duke’s David Cutcliffe and Utah’s Kyle Whittingham. Whittingham is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in bowl games. Utah’s offense also has adjusted well to the injury to RB Zach Moss, and Tyler Huntley may return at QB. Kudos to Pat Fitzgerald for getting Northwestern to the Big Ten title game, but the Wildcats have been a fraud all season, as they’re more like a 6-6 team statistically. Don’t expect Northwestern to be able to run the ball at all.
Last week: 1-3 against the spread
Season: 38-35-6
Christopher Smith of AL.com, NOLA.com and MyBookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
