Instant replay: Betting public favors Carolina Panthers in NFL season opener

Seven months after he flopped in the Super Bowl, Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is back on a big stage and again favored to beat the team that took him down a notch in February.

The Panthers are 3-point road favorites over the Denver Broncos, who will show a new look Thursday night. Peyton Manning is retired, and second-year quarterback Trevor Siemian gets his first NFL start.

Months have passed, but not much has changed with the betting public. The Broncos inspired few believers before Super Bowl 50, and even after the Von Miller-led Denver defense dominated in a 24-10 victory, the song remains the same.

In April, the Broncos opened as 2-point favorites in the season-opening matchup. The line move of five points, according to Westgate sports book director Jay Kornegay, reflects about 70 percent of the money wagered showing on the Panthers.

“I agree with the move,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “Siemian is a big question mark. Carolina has got revenge and the better quarterback. We’ll see if Siemian can match Newton play for play, and I don’t think so.”

Kornegay said the 3-point line, priced at minus-120 on the Panthers, could hit 3½ on Thursday. But he predicted the hook would quickly disappear.

The total has dipped from an opener of 43½ to 41½.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Micah Roberts is siding with the Broncos, just as he did in February when the Panthers closed as favorites of 4½ to 5 points on a neutral field in Santa Clara, California.

“This line looks eerily similar to a bad number in the Super Bowl, which at one point the public pushed Carolina to a 6½-point favorite before late sharp money poured in on Denver,” Roberts said. “Carolina’s true rating against Denver called for a pick ’em on a neutral field. Several respected oddsmakers had Denver one point better in the ratings. This time around, with Denver’s home field worth three points, the number is saying Carolina is still six points better in the ratings. That’s crazy.”

The Panthers proved to be fraudulent favorites in the Super Bowl, and Roberts said the switch from Manning to Siemian is not necessarily a knock against the Broncos in the rematch.

“Manning was not an essential factor to the Broncos becoming champions,” Roberts said.

Two trends favor Denver. The Super Bowl champion is 10-2 straight up and 7-4-1 against the spread in the annual Thursday opener. The Super Bowl hangover has been more relevant to the loser, Roberts said, with the losing team going 5-8 straight up and 2-11 ATS in its past 13 Week 1 games.

Carolina and Denver hooked up for a sloppily played Super Bowl, but the action off the field was better than ever.

The game generated a record wagering handle of $132.5 million in Nevada.

As for the handle on the rematch, Bogdanovich said, “It’s going to be a monster.”

Bogdanovich described betting action as “insane” on the first weekend of the college football season. Wagering on mobile phone apps is a major reason for recent increases in handle.

“I think that’s just a preview of what’s to come this year,” Bogdanovich said. “People like betting football. It’s a challenge. Let’s face it, sports betting is rocking and rolling.”

Contact sports betting reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247