NFL Week 3 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Scott Kellen, @SixthSenseNFL
Raiders (1-1) at Commanders (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Commanders -3, 43½
Analysis: Both teams were stymied on offense last week, as the Packers shut down the Commanders and the Chargers thwarted the Raiders. Washington will be without quarterback Jayden Daniels (knee), and thus the line has come down from -6 to -3. The Raiders offense has been horrible, but can take advantage of holes in the Commanders defense.
Pick: Commanders 21, Raiders 20
Colts (2-0) at Titans (0-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -4, 43½
Analysis: The Colts offense has been impressive with Daniel Jones at quarterback. Indianapolis is averaging 8.7 yards per pass and not giving up sacks. The Titans offense is averaging just 2.8 yards per pass and getting sacked an average of 5½ times per game. Tennessee’s defense is allowing 150 yards rushing per game. Neither team is sacking the opposing quarterback, so both teams could have success through the air.
Pick: Colts 22, Titans 19
Falcons (1-1) at Panthers (0-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -5, 44
Analysis: Carolina fought back last week to get the backdoor cover at Arizona. But the Panthers were badly outplayed, getting outgained by 1.5 yards per play. Atlanta rushed for 218 yards at Minnesota. The Falcons didn’t do much in the air, but it was enough to outscore a poor Vikings offense. Atlanta will be missing its best cornerback in A.J. Terrell, while Carolina has had to replace the right side of its offensive line because of injuries.
Pick: Falcons 24, Panthers 20
Packers (2-0) at Browns (0-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Packers -7½, 41½
Analysis: The Browns were destroyed by the Ravens in last week’s 41-17 loss. But they gained 4.5 yards per play while allowing only 4.6 yards per play. The game was much closer than the score indicates. In Week 1, the Browns limited Cincinnati to 7 yards in the second half, but special teams cost them in a 17-16 home loss. The Browns offense has been a mess, but the defense has played extremely well. The Browns will face a Packers team that looks like one of the best in the league but could be missing one or two offensive linemen who are questionable with injuries, as well as two of its best receivers.
Pick: Packers 23, Browns 17
Bengals (2-0) at Vikings (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Vikings -3, 41½
Analysis: Two backup quarterbacks will start, as Jake Browning fills in for Bengals starter Joe Burrow and Carson Wentz takes over for Vikings starter J.J. McCarthy. Both quarterbacks are about even, but the Minnesota offensive line is a mess. The Vikings will be without center Ryan Kelly, and left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable. They also have several defensive injuries that might leave them weak at all three levels on defense.
Pick: Bengals 21, Vikings 20
Rams (2-0) at Eagles (2-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -3½, 44½
Analysis: The Eagles are 2-0 but have been less than impressive. They averaged only 3.7 yards per play in last week’s 20-17 win over the Chiefs. Philadelphia’s passing offense has been well below average, while the defense has been slightly above average. The Rams are also 2-0, but their passing offense has been fantastic.
Pick: Eagles 29, Rams 24
Steelers (1-1) at Patriots (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -2, 44½
Analysis: The Steelers were outplayed on the road in Week 1, but stole a win over the Jets because of turnovers. Last week, they were badly outplayed at home and lost to the Seahawks. New England gave up a ton of passing yards to the Raiders in Week 1 and to the Dolphins in Week 2. Both passing attacks and pass defenses have been horrible, with each team allowing 8.4 yards per pass. Both teams might get key players back in the secondary. If they don’t, there should be plenty of passing yards again.
Pick: Steelers 23, Patriots 20
Jets (0-2) at Buccaneers (2-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Buccaneers -6½, 43½
Analysis: Justin Fields is out, and Tyrod Taylor takes over at quarterback for the Jets. The Buccaneers have squeaked out two last-minute victories. Tampa Bay is running the ball well, at 5.1 yards per rush, and shutting down the running game, allowing 3.3 yards per rush. But the Bucs are allowing 6.7 yards per pass. Tampa is also dealing with cluster injuries on its offensive line.
Pick: Buccaneers 20, Jets 16
Texans (0-2) at Jaguars (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jaguars -1½, 43½
Analysis: The Texans have lost to two good teams in the Rams and Bucs. Jacksonville has looked good against lesser competition in Carolina and Cincinnati. Houston is above average on offense and defense, while Jacksonville has been about an average team. The Texans have won seven straight and 10 of their past 11 at Jacksonville. Houston is the better team.
Pick: Texans 24, Jaguars 21
Broncos (1-1) at Chargers (2-0)
Time: 1:05 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Chargers -2½, 46½
Analysis: The Chargers have been the better team. They are throwing the ball more often and having a ton of success, averaging 8.2 yards per pass. On defense, they are allowing just 4.6 yards per pass. Denver has struggled, especially second-year quarterback Bo Nix. The Broncos’ pass offense is well below average, and last week the defense allowed the Colts to throw for 8.7 yards per pass. Los Angeles lost edge rusher Khalil Mack in Monday’s game against the Raiders, so its pass rush might be impacted.
Pick: Broncos 23, Chargers 21
Saints (0-2) at Seahawks (1-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Seahawks -7, 41½
Analysis: The Saints have played better than most expected in their two losses to the Cardinals and 49ers. The Seahawks are coming off an impressive road win at Pittsburgh. New Orleans has run the ball well, averaging 4.4 yards per rush, and its pass defense has played well. That pass defense will be tested against a Seattle passing attack averaging 7.2 yards per pass. The Seahawks are 6-12-1 ATS as home favorites since 2021.
Pick: Seahawks 23, Saints 20
Cowboys (1-1) at Bears (0-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox
Line/total: Cowboys -1, 50
Analysis: The Cowboys’ pass defense was a disaster last week, allowing Russell Wilson to throw for 450 yards at 11 yards per pass. But the Bears have been worse, as they allowed the Lions 11.9 yards per pass last week. Chicago has injuries in the secondary and at linebacker. The Bears are on a 3-18 straight-up slide at home as home underdogs. The Cowboys are riding a 12-4 straight-up streak as road favorites.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Bears 24
Cardinals (2-0) at 49ers (2-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: 49ers -2, 45½
Analysis: The Cardinals’ wins over the Saints and Panthers weren’t impressive, and their numbers reflect them to be an average team. The 49ers will start Mac Jones at quarterback again in place of injured Brock Purdy. Arizona is dealing with injuries in the secondary and might be without three starters. Carolina staged its comeback last week after the Cardinals suffered injuries in the secondary.
Pick: 49ers 24, Cardinals 20
Chiefs (0-2) at Giants (0-2)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Chiefs -6, 45
Analysis: The Chiefs haven’t looked great, but they have faced the Chargers, who look good, and the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. This is a huge step down in class to face the Giants, who looked better in last week’s loss at Dallas. Surprisingly, Kansas City’s numbers are above average on offense and defense when compared to the competition it faced. New York’s offense has been average, but its defense has been horrible, allowing 177.5 yards rushing per game and 277.5 yards passing per game. This is the perfect type of defense the Chiefs need to face to get their season going.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Giants 17
Lions (1-1) at Ravens (1-1)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN
Line/total: Ravens -4½, 53
Analysis: The Ravens are coming off a 24-point blowout of the Browns, while the Lions are coming off a 31-point beatdown of the Bears. Both teams have average defenses and exceptional offenses. Baltimore has been a machine as a home favorite, scoring 30 points or more in 13 of its past 15 home games.
Pick: Ravens 30, Lions 24
