Odds, horse-by-horse analysis for 151st Kentucky Derby

Michael Kipness, aka “The Wizard,” a professional horse racing handicapper since 1986, analyzes the 20-horse field for Saturday’s 151st Kentucky Derby, designating each horse as a contender or a pretender.

Visit Wizardraceandsports.com to purchase his full card selections and wagering strategies for Friday’s Oaks Day (13 races) and Saturday’s Derby Day (14 races).

Post position, horse, jockey, morning-line odds:

1. Citizen Bull, Martin Garcia, 20-1

Speedster who upset the field, going wire-to-wire in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, will be dueled into defeat turning for home. Pretender.

2. Neoequos, Flavien Prat, 30-1

Another pacesetter who will be caught up in a speed duel and fade. Pretender.

3. Final Gambit, Luan Machado, 30-1

Deep closer will benefit from a fast pace. First dirt start, stepping up in class for top trainer Brad Cox. Similar profile to 2011 Derby winner Animal Kingdom. Can’t envision him winning, but hitting the board at huge odds because of a pace meltdown not out of the realm of possibility. Pretender.

4. Rodriguez, Mike Smith, 12-1

Like Citizen Bull, both trained by Bob Baffert, will be asked for speed right from the break. Faces intense pressure, which will ultimately do him in. Pretender.

5. American Promise, Nik Juarez, 30-1

Yet another speed horse who will be cooked before he hits mid-stretch. Pretender.

6. Admire Daytona, Christophe Lemaire, 30-1

The least fancied of the two colts shipping in from Japan. Won UAE Derby over dirt in Dubai last time out. He’s tactical, consistent and has a world-class jockey aboard him. Could land a piece at huge odds, but can’t envision him winning. Pretender.

7. Luxor Cafe, Joao Moreira, 15-1

The other horse from Japan is 4-0 this year, and each race was better than the previous one. He’s versatile, can adapt to any pace scenario, and when he unleashes his late kick, it’s difficult for any horse to keep up with him. Draws a perfect post, allowing his world-class rider to keep him outside of horses, avoiding dirt kickback he’s shown he doesn’t like. Even though all six of his races have been in Japan, he was bred in Kentucky and has an outstanding American pedigree on his sire and dam side. Trainer Noriyuki Hori is also world-class. Contender.

8. Journalism, Umberto Rispoli, 3-1

Derby favorite looks to win his fifth straight race, all at a distance. His tactical speed and ability to relax before making his move allows Rispoli to sit a perfect trip behind a fast and contested pace. He’s likely to have the lead in deep stretch. To beat him, you have to snatch him from behind. Certainly, the one to beat. However, he’s vulnerable at a relatively short price. He’s racing outside of California for the first time and has to face a field of 19 after defeating just four rivals in each of his past three starts. Contender.

9. Burnham Square, Brian Hernandez Jr., 12-1

Will be set up nicely, closing late on a fast and contested pace. Steadily improving gelding exits a career-best win in the Blue Grass. It’s a quick 23-day turnaround from his last start. Must avoid traffic in the stretch. Contender.

10. Grande, John Velazquez, 20-1

Lacks seasoning with only three starts, but he’s talented and steadily improving. Could land a piece at a big price, but I’m looking for better things from him down the road. Pretender.

11. Flying Mohawk, Joe Ramos, 30-1

Same trainer as Honor Marie, who finished eighth in last year’s Derby. Makes his first dirt start with blinkers off. A safe bet he finishes up the track. Pretender.

12. East Avenue, Manny Franco, 20-1

Needs clear sailing on the front end to have any chance of carrying his speed gate to wire. Will be hustled hard from the break to get the front but faces intense pressure to his inside. Wrong setup for him. Pretender.

13. Publisher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 20-1

He’s still a maiden after seven starts. Raced in graded stakes his last three races, including a career-best second to Sandman last time out in the Arkansas Derby. Gets fast pace to close into, which could land him a piece at big odds, but he’s not winning the Derby. Pretender.

14. Tiztastic, Joel Rosario, 20-1

Late-running colt exits a career-best effort in winning the Louisiana Derby. The additional time between that race and the Derby and a fast pace to close into should help. The distance suits him well, with a great closing rider aboard. He’s a cut below the major players here, but he will make his presence felt late. Contender.

15. Render Judgment, Julien Leparoux, 30-1

A maiden win in seven starts and not in great form. Pretender.

16. Coal Battle, Juan Vargas, 30-1

Consistent, but gives every impression that 1¼ miles is much too far for him. Pretender.

17. Sandman, Jose Ortiz, 6-1

Closed well from far back to win the Arkansas Derby, aided by fast fractions and a pace meltdown. Similar setup here, and he’s well-suited to the distance. The issue with him is a tendency to encounter trouble, which is usually from his own doing. Major player to hit the board, but everything would have to go his way to win. Contender.

18. Sovereignty, Junior Alvarado, 5-1

Likely second choice in the wagering is genuine, has a strong late kick and comes into the Derby with plenty of foundation. Peaking at the right time for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Bred very well to handle the distance and is reunited with Alvarado, who was aboard in his first four starts. He’s run once at Churchill, and the result was an eye-opening five-length win in a stake last October while stretching out to two turns for the first time. Must overcome post 18, but will drop well back of the early leaders and bide his time before making his late run. Will be aided by the quick and contested pace. Contender.

19. Chunk of Gold, Jareth Loveberry, 30-1

In four starts he has only one win, which came sprinting over a synthetic surface. Has improved since switching to the dirt and stretching out in distance. His second in the Louisiana Derby was better than it looked after making a premature middle move. Could outrun his odds. Contender.

20. Owen Almighty, Javier Castellano, 30-1

Needs to utilize his early speed, but drawing post 20 with plenty of speed to his inside, he should be cooked turning for home. Nice horse, but the wrong spot and setup. Pretender.

Also eligible

21. Baeza, Prat, 12-1

Needs one defection to land a spot in the Derby. If he does, his steadily improving form and tactical speed could land him a piece of the purse. Prat would jump off Neoequos to ride Baeza. Contender.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.