Sharp money moves line in Raiders-Patriots season opener

Pete Carroll has a haunted history with the Patriots, who fired him as coach in 2000 and dealt him and the Seahawks arguably the most crushing Super Bowl loss ever in 2015.

Sharp bettors and the betting public are banking on Carroll and the Raiders — who have their own checkered past with New England — to exorcise some of their demons in Sunday’s season opener.

The Patriots opened as 3½-point home favorites in May, but money on the Raiders has caused the consensus line to drop to 2½.

“We had a very respected player that took 3½ with the Raiders,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “That took us down to +3.”

The South Point was one of the last sportsbooks to move the line off the key number of 3 after taking a bevy of sharp bets on the underdog.

“We’ve got a pretty decent amount on the Raiders +3,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “We’re the only ones that do everything at 11 to 10 (-110), so I consider that sharp.”

The Raiders are +125 on the money line, and the total has ticked up from as low as 41½ in May at Circa Sports to 44.

“The action’s been fairly one-sided in favor of the Raiders,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “It’s been up for a while now, and it’s been a steady onslaught of Raiders action. The ticket count is 77 percent in favor of the Raiders, and the money is that way, too.

“There has been some sharp money on the Raiders early on that pushed this game down, but the public is clearly riding the Raiders in this case. They’re betting the Raiders and over. For us, right now, the best case is Patriots and under.”

Props

Raiders rookie running back Ashton Jeanty’s rushing yards prop is over-under 71½ at Caesars Sportsbook, where he’s the +525 favorite to be the first touchdown scorer and -125 favorite to score an anytime touchdown.

Quarterback Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is 229½ in his Raiders debut, and he’s +140 to throw over 1½ touchdown passes.

Raiders tight end Brock Bowers tops the list of receiving yards props at 65½ and is +170 to score a touchdown.

Best bets

The total was still at 43½ on Friday at STN Sports. NBC Sports betting analyst Drew Dinsick bet the game to go over 42½ before the number moved, he told the Review-Journal after an Aug. 23 football preview at Circa.

“I like the over in that game a lot,” said Dinsick (@whale_capper). “My number is 45, so the total there is really solid. I think the Raiders’ defense has some huge question marks, and the Patriots are good enough to exploit that. It’s going to be a good (effort) for the Patriots with (new coach Mike) Vrabel, in Week 1 specifically.

“The Raiders are going to be a fun offense, for sure. I think they’re going to score a ton of points. They’re an over team.”

Dinsick also leans to the Raiders at +3.

“If I have to take a side, I’d probably take the Raiders +3 because I think the margin between the teams is pretty narrow,” he said. “They’re going to be a team to bet on to cover games, but I don’t think they’re going to win a lot. It’s just too tough a schedule, and there’s too many holes in the secondary.

“Geno (Smith) is a good, not great quarterback, so I don’t know if he’s elevating you enough to overcome your defensive issues.”

Pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw leans to the Raiders to go over their alternate win total of 6½ (-155) at Circa.

“If you put a gun to my head, I would certainly bet the Raiders over 6½,” he said. “It’s an upgrade with a proven coach (Carroll), an outstanding running back (Jeanty), and the defensive line is very, very good.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.