Preview capsules for UFC Fight Night 103 main card

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 103 MATCHUPS

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of Sunday’s UFC Fight Night 103 card at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix with picks from the Review-Journal’s Adam Hill and Heidi Fang:

Yair Rodriguez (9-1) vs. BJ Penn (16-10-2)

CLASS: Featherweight

LINE: Rodriguez -420

STORYLINE: Penn hasn’t won a fight since 2010 and is coming out of retirement for the second time. Last time he came back from a hiatus, he looked horrific in a loss to Frankie Edgar in 2014. He insists he is feeling like his old self and Penn has an incredible resume with UFC belts in two different weight classes, but there is little reason to believe in the sudden appearance of a rejuvenation at this point despite all the work he has put in over the last year. The UFC hopes Rodriguez blossoms into a star that can help grow the organization’s footprint in Mexico and this fight is obviously a showcase to build his name off one of the legends of the sport. Penn could theoretically give Rodriguez fits on the mat, but how can he get the fight to the ground? Rodriguez hasn’t lost in the UFC and probably won’t be in much danger of doing so for the first time in this one.

HILL’S PICK: Rodriguez by first-round knockout

FANG’S PICK: Rodriguez by third-round knockout

Joe Lauzon (26-13) vs. Marcin Held (22-5)

CLASS: Lightweight

LINE: Lauzon -120

STORYLINE: Lauzon said in an interview this week he views Held as a version of himself several years ago. That’s probably fair. Lauzon started as a great submission artist and has developed into a well-rounded fighter, but one who usually finds himself in wild brawls. Held has some of that in him, as well. He had a great deal of success as one of the top lightweights in Bellator over the last five years, only to drop his UFC debut with a unanimous decision loss to Diego Sanchez. Held is very talented, particularly as a grappler, but is still just 24 and learning how to harness his skills. Lauzon has been through that process. While this could be a very fun fight, Lauzon has seen it all and is very dangerous when coming off a loss. Held also has questionable cardio and could wear down if the pace is as high as expected early.

HILL’S PICK: Lauzon by second-round knockout

FANG’S PICK: Lauzon by decision

Court McGee (19-5) vs. Ben Saunders (19-7-2)

CLASS: Welterweight

LINE: Pick ‘em

STORYLINE: Don’t be surprised to see a whole lot of clinch work in this matchup of durable veterans. McGee is great when the action is in tight and Saunders is quite comfortable there, particularly when he can do damage with his knees. The difference is McGee probably needs to get to that position, while Saunders will be much more comfortable at range. If McGee can get in close, he can use his dirty boxing to land short shots and wear down Saunders, perhaps setting up takedown opportunities. McGee is very durable and rarely shows any sign of fatigue. As long as he can stay out of spots where Saunders can open up his kickboxing game, McGee should avoid trouble.

HILL’S PICK: McGee by decision

FANG’S PICK: Saunders by decision

John Moraga (16-5) vs. Sergio Pettis (14-2)

CLASS: Flyweight

LINE: Pettis -140

STORYLINE: Moraga, a one-time flyweight title challenger, steps in as a late replacement to fight in his hometown. Though he has lost two fights in a row, Moraga was fantastic last time he fought in Phoenix. He will need to replicate that effort if he hopes to snap the slide. Pettis was one of the youngest fighters in the UFC when he signed with the organization in 2013 and at 23, he’s just now starting to live up to his promise. He has won four of his last five fights to start to make a move toward contention. Moraga has already been there and desperately wants to get back. The experience, hometown advantage and sense of urgency will combine to make him very tough to beat. Pettis continues to improve, but isn’t yet an explosive finisher. That will be a problem for him against Moraga, who might feel more free to go on the attack.

HILL’S PICK: Moraga by second-round knockout

FANG’S PICK: Pettis by decision