UFC 196 preview: fight by fight

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of UFC 196 today at the MGM Grand Garden:

Conor McGregor (19-2) vs. Nate Diaz (19-10)

CLASS: Welterweight

LINE: McGregor minus-480

STORYLINE: We got to see quick previews of the fight at the news conference Thursday and the weigh-in Friday. Obviously, there is nothing that can be learned from McGregor’s left hook landing on Diaz’s hand as the fighters posed for photos. But there was a lot of talking and gesturing combined with angry reactions from coaches and training partners. That’s probably what can be expected in the fight and what makes it potentially so much fun. McGregor loves to talk during fights, but nobody approaches the Diaz brothers in that regard. Don’t expect the weight issue to be a huge factor. McGregor is a massive featherweight who should be stronger without enduring a weight cut. Diaz typically fights at lightweight, so he’s not a big guy cutting down to 170 pounds. Diaz is coming off a sensational performance against Michael Johnson. If that version of him shows up, McGregor is in trouble. But Diaz hasn’t shown an ability to deliver consistently at that level. His best chance is to get the fight to the ground and try to use his superior jiu-jitsu skills to hunt for a submission. He’s more likely to try to take off McGregor’s head, which plays right into the Irish star’s game plan.

PICK: McGregor by third-round knockout

Holly Holm (10-0) vs. Miesha Tate (17-5)

CLASS: For Holm’s women’s bantamweight title

LINE: Holm minus-310

STORYLINE: Most casual fans know Holm only from her masterful knockout of Ronda Rousey in November. Holm, however, was less than spectacular in her two UFC wins before earning the title shot. One of the reasons the former professional boxer looked so good against Rousey was that Rousey was so aggressive in coming forward that Holm was able to time her attacks and routinely land counters as she retreated. Her first two opponents were much more cautious. The good news for Holm is that Tate is also ultra-aggressive. She is willing to take shots in dogged pursuit of takedowns. While Tate looks like a bad style matchup for the champion, the aggression may counteract some of that advantage. Expect Tate to give Holm trouble and get her to the ground more than once, where Holm will be out of her comfort zone. It’s definitely worth getting the good price on the underdog, though with 25 minutes to work with and an opponent coming forward, Holm will have her chances to land a knockout blow.

PICK: Tate by decision

Gian Villante (14-6) vs. Ilir Latifi (12-4, 1 No Contest)

CLASS: Light heavyweight

LINE: Latifi minus-200

STORYLINE: Villante is the longtime best friend and training partner of former middleweight champion Chris Weidman. He’s also a fun guy who seemed to embrace the moniker of “The Gronk of MMA” when several media members compared him to New England Patriots star Rob Gronkowski this week. All of that covers up the fact that Villante is a skilled, athletic fighter who is getting better and better. He has won three of his past four fights and has a chance to move further up the ranks with a win over Latifi. It won’t be easy, however. Latifi has won four of his past five, with all of the victories in the first round. He’s a wrecking machine. He probably won’t be able to get Villante to the ground, so this could just be a wild slugfest. Both have major power, and this could be an early knockout either way. That would generally indicate betting the underdog may be the way to go, but Villante’s defense is suspect enough to give a lean to the favorite.

PICK: Latifi by first-round knockout

Corey Anderson (8-1) vs. Tom Lawlor (10-5, 1 No Contest)

CLASS: Light heavyweight

LINE: Anderson minus-290

STORYLINE: Anderson will be the more talented fighter in this matchup of “The Ultimate Fighter” alumni. Lawlor probably wouldn’t even debate that. But Lawlor has been up against bigger, stronger and faster fighters before, and while he doesn’t always win, he has proven capable of learning from his experience and putting those lessons to use. It’s possible Anderson will overwhelm Lawlor and get him out early. That’s why he’s a big favorite. Lawlor will put up a fight, though Anderson has proven somewhat vulnerable to takedowns despite his wrestling background. If he can get him to the ground, Lawlor may be able to use the jiu-jitsu skills he said have been improving to submit Anderson.

PICK: Lawlor by second-round submission

Amanda Nunes (11-4) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (12-1)

CLASS: Women’s bantamweight

LINE: Nunes minus-125

STORYLINE: There shouldn’t be much mystery here. While Nunes does possess a solid ground game, she wants to engage on the feet. Shevchenko, a former pro boxer and kickboxer, will be more than happy to oblige. Shevchenko is the more polished striker of the two and probably will appear far more fluid in her attacks. Nunes has started to get smoother with better coaching, but she still at times resorts to the wild, violent striker she was in the past. It’s even more effective now as it is less predictable. Shevchenko was impressive in her UFC debut, earning a split decision over veteran Sarah Kaufman in December. Nunes is a big step up, however. She hopes to make a pitch to fight the winner of the title bout between Holm and Tate if Rousey’s return is delayed. An impressive win would certainly help make her case.

PICK: Nunes by decision