UFC Fight Night 115 main card picks

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 115 MATCHUPS

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 115 card at Ahoy Rotterdam in Rotterdam, Netherlands, with picks from the Review-Journal’s Adam Hill and Heidi Fang:

Alexander Volkov (28-6) vs. Stefan Struve (32-8)

Class: Heavyweight

Line: Volkov -125

Storyline: Struve is the tallest fighter in the organization at 7-feet and possesses a ton of talent both standing and on the mat. He has struggled with inconsistency and defense throughout his career and has been further held back from a rise in the rankings by long periods of inactivity due to a series of ailments. Struve won his last two fights and has been out of action for nearly 11 months once again due to a shoulder injury. He finally gets a chance to regain some momentum as he headlines a card in his native country. Struve will need to be sharp defensively, but he actually will take some advantages to the cage with him and may be the most versatile opponent Volkov has faced in the UFC. While Volkov is 2-0 since joining the organization, he hasn’t yet been able to record a finish. Struve likely has more paths to victory and will have 25 minutes to find one.

Hill’s Pick: Struve by second-round knockout

Fang’s Pick: Volkov by third-round knockout

Siyar Bahadurzada (22-6-1) vs. Rob Wilkinson (11-0)

Class: Middleweight

Line: Bahadurzada -150

Storyline: Bahadurzada, who was born in Afghanistan and raised in The Netherlands, will fight in the UFC for just the fifth time despite being in the organization since 2012. He has been plagued by lengthy absences due to a series of injuries. After missing more than two years, he returned in March 2016 and scored an impressive submission victory over Brandon Thatch. Then he was sidelined for the next 18 months. Bahadurzada is anxious to get back in the cage where he will welcome Wilkinson to the UFC. It’s not a great style matchup for Wilkinson in his debut. Bahadurzada thrives on pressuring opponents to the point where they over-commit and then using his outstanding counters to make them pay the price. That strategy can be especially effective against newcomers who may show signs of nerves and stray from the gameplan. Wilkinson’s best bet to win the fight is on the ground.

Hill’s Pick: Bahadurzada by second-round knockout

Fang’s Pick: Wilkinson by decision

Marion Reneau (7-3-1) vs. Talita Bernado (5-1)

Class: Women’s bantamweight

Line: Reneau -300

Storyline: This was supposed to be a major opportunity for Reneau to take on former women’s featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie. Instead, Reneau will fight newcomer Bernado, who accepted the fight just a week ago after de Randamie suffered an injury. Reneau should be at an advantage as long as she can keep her focus after the opponent switch. Both fighters are very competent grapplers and should be able to neutralize each other on the mat. Reneau has a huge edge in experience and is much craftier in the striking game. That should carry her to a win.

Hill’s Pick: Reneau by decision

Fang’s Pick: Reneau by second-round submission

Leon Edwards (13-3) vs. Bryan Barberena (13-4)

Class: Welterweight

Line: Edwards -265

Storyline: Edwards has been on a tear, winning five of his last six fights in the UFC with the only loss coming to rising star Kamaru Usman. Barberena’s only loss in his last four fights also came against a very quality opponent in Colby Covington. Neither setback should really be concerning, making this a huge opportunity to make a big jump in the division. Edwards is probably the more talented of these two southpaws. He’s explosive with his strikes, particularly his knees, and can force takedowns with his pressure in the clinch and on the cage. Barberena, however, is incredibly tough and durable. He has the ability to withstand whatever and opponent tries to do and wait for his chance to kick it into gear and take over a fight when they show signs of fatigue or frustration. Barberena is without a doubt a live underdog as the price appears way too high on Edwards in what should be a battle.

Hill’s Pick: Edwards by decision

Fang’s Pick: Barberena by decision

Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com or 702-277-8028. Follow @adamhilllvrj on Twitter.