UFC on Fox 22 matchups

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of the UFC on Fox 22 card Saturday at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California:

PAIGE VANZANT (7-2) VS. MICHELLE WATERSON (13-4)

Class: Women’s strawweight

Line: VanZant minus-115

Storyline: VanZant answered many doubters who thought she had one foot out the door of the cage and headed toward Hollywood after her appearance on “Dancing With the Stars” by scoring a highlight-reel knockout of Bec Rawlings in August. The victory also erased the memory of the pummeling she suffered at the hands of Rose Namajunas in December. The win over Rawlings again showed VanZant is more than a pretty face and demonstrated how hard she appears to be working on her game. Waterson is a high-level striker who should challenge VanZant if she allows it to become a straight kickboxing battle. VanZant’s strength lies in her aggression, and she would be best served to turn this fight into an ugly brawl. She will have a size advantage, particularly after a difficult weight cut that saw her barely hit the mark after shedding her clothes to get on the scale Friday. VanZant should use the size edge over Waterson, a more natural atomweight who moves up only because the weight class doesn’t exist in the UFC, to grind her up against the cage and try to wear her down. Waterson may be particularly susceptible to wearing down after being out of action for 18 months while she recovered from breaking her right hand three times. As long as VanZant can stay away from traditional striking exchanges, she should be fine.

Pick: VanZant by decision

SAGE NORTHCUTT (8-1) VS. MICKEY GALL (3-0)

Class: Welterweight

Line: Gall minus-115

Storyline: Gall has picked up two wins in the UFC, but will finally fight his first legitimate opponent. He fought a novice in Mike Jackson to get the chance to fight former Phil “CM Punk” Brooks in September and earned some fame for destroying the former pro wrestler, who was making his MMA debut. Gall then called out Northcutt, one of the most hyped prospects the UFC has seen in some time. This is where Gall can prove how legitimate he is at this stage of his career. While Northcutt has had trouble with wrestlers like Gall, there is no denying his strength or kickboxing prowess. Gall, who has submitted all three opponents in the first round, may be able to neutralize Northcutt as has happened on several occasions and Gall actually does appear to be a really good prospect. His time will come. But for him to be favored over Northcutt, who is 3-1 in the UFC against more appropriate competition, seems a bit much.

Pick: Northcutt by second-round knockout

URIJAH FABER (33-10) VS. BRAD PICKETT (26-12)

Class: Bantamweight

Line: Faber minus-425

Storyline: Everything is set up for Faber to retire with a victory. He will fight in front of a partisan crowd in his hometown at a new arena against a tough but beatable opponent. While Faber has lost two consecutive fights, both were against high-level competition. While Pickett was once in that category, he has lost four of his past five bouts. He still packs a big punch and is tough, but there is too much working against him to ruin Faber’s storybook ending. Faber still has pretty good power for this division and his guillotine choke is a dangerous weapon. Faber has 19 submission wins in his career and it would only be fitting for him to go out with number 20.

Pick: Faber by second-round submission

ALAN JOUBAN (14-4) VS. MIKE PERRY (9-0)

Class: Welterweight

Line: Perry minus-130

Storyline: Jouban is a fairly well-rounded fighter who has won four of his past five to solidify himself as a potential contender in the division. While he is capable of finishing a fight, with nine knockouts, Jouban possesses a smooth striking style that is technically sound in the standup and strong in the clinch and on the mat. He will need to control the range in this fight, as perhaps no welterweight packs a bigger punch than Perry. He has knocked out all nine opponents, including two in the UFC. Only three times has he been out of the first round. If Jouban tries to engage him in the pocket, he will be the 10th name on the list. The problem for Jouban might be that even though he is so technically proficient, he’s not one to shy away from a challenge. At some point in this fight, he is likely take a clean punch and he might not get to find out what a second one feels like.

Pick: Perry by second-round knockout