Chevy Bow-ties and Virginians Set to Battle at Martinsville; Jeff Burton Looks Strongest

The top story coming into this week's NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Martinsville (Va.) Speedway centered on Jimmie Johnson capturing the last four season championships, winning three of the first five races this season, and dominating nearly every season at Martinsville since he’s been on the circuit.
 
Following Saturday’s practice sessions, the story has shifted to how good some of the other drivers have been in practice, in particular Jeff Burton. The native Virginian, who grew up 64 miles away in nearby South Boston, tied for the fastest lap during the first practice session and was second fastest during happy hour in final preparation for Sunday’s Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500.
 
Burton not only had the best showing during Saturday’s practices, he also ran the most laps in each with 60 in the first and 99 in the final session. He looks to have his best chance at winning since finishing third in this race in 2008. His only Martinsville win came in the fall of 1997.
 
Burton’s success during Saturday’s practice comes a week after NASCAR tested the new spoiler at Charlotte, where he and his Childress teammates were stars of the two-day session. The spoiler debuts on the short track of Martinsville this week. It won’t have near the same impact this week that it will have on larger downforce tracks, but it is a sign — along with Martinsville’s practice — that the Childress organization is going to be a thorn in Johnson’s quest to win five straight titles.
 
Johnson has won six career races at Martinsville, including five of the last seven. He’s finished outside of the top 10 only once in his 16 career starts, and that was his first Cup start on the track. No one comes close to Johnson at Martinsville, but things may be a little different this week.
 
Johnson’s cars usually come right off the hauler ready to dominate with little tinkering throughout the practices. But this week they looked like a normal team scrambling to get the optimum setup during practices rather than the team that always has it figured out. Their average speeds and times were not Johnson-like at Martinsville.
 
However, they still have the best crew in NASCAR and chances are they will have that car set up good enough to compete while making the necessary changes as the race goes on. Nine straight top-five finishes coming into this race is pretty strong and chances are it will happen again, but winning is definitely a question mark.
 
One of the top candidates Johnson will have to go through to get his seventh win on the track will be his teammate and boss, Jeff Gordon, who has seven career wins at Martinsville. Gordon could have probably tacked on four more wins, but Johnson has pigged them all over that span. Over the past 10 races, Gordon has finished in the top five each time, with two wins and three second-place finishes. 
 
Gordon was strong in every practice, whether in qualifying trim on Friday, where he was fourth quickest, or in race trim Saturday, where he was fifth and fourth. respectively. Look for a strong run out of Gordon this week who is searching for his first win since Texas almost a year ago.
 
Two other Hendrick cars joined Johnson and Gordon as top contenders to win this week after stellar practice sessions. Mark Martin practices well every week and has the look of being able to win on any track, but the surprise came with Dale Earnhardt Jr., who was fastest in average speeds during happy hour.
 
Earnhardt Jr. has a new chassis this week and it looked very good as he was passing some of the best cars on the track who were running similar laps on their tires. His history suggests that Martinsville is a place where he likes to run. Since being with Hendrick over the last four Martinsville races, Earnhardt Jr. has had three top-10 finishes, which includes finishing second to Johnson in the fall of 2008. Over his career he has an average finish position of 14.1 with eight top fives.
 
Juan Pablo Montoya and Jamie McMurray continued to show they have something good going on within their organization by repeating similarly good practice times. While it hasn’t equated to a good overall finish in the standings, it is a sign that they are close. During Saturday’s early practice session, McMurray had the fastest average times followed immediately by Montoya. During happy hour, McMurray blazed off the fastest single lap while Montoya had the third-quickest average time.
 
Of all the oval tracks, Martinsville has been Montoya’s most consistent while in NASCAR with an average finish of 11.0, which includes his career best of third place in the last race held there. Both McMurray and Montoya present excellent chances of battling for the win on Sunday.
 
Denny Hamlin is the lone ranger among solid candidates to win this week because he doesn’t drive a Chevy. Of the top nine fastest cars in happy hour, Hamlin was the only car not sporting a bow-tie. Hamlin came in as one of the favorites to topple Johnson this week and showed it during practice, coming in with the fifth-best time in the final practice while debuting a new chassis.
 
The native Virginian treats his two tracks of Martinsville and Richmond (Va.) like they are home field and battles a little bit harder there than at other tracks. He’s won two of the last four Martinsville races and has finished in the top five in six of the last seven races there. In the race he didn’t get a top five, he was sixth.
 
The one concern for Hamlin this week is the wear and tear on his knee as he breaks and gases for 1,000 times around each side of the track, which is tougher than any other of the Sprint Cup circuit. Hamlin tore his ACL ligament during a pickup basketball game in January, but didn’t have surgery, opting to wait until after the season.
 
There was thought to have been no concern about him driving a car because of no lateral movement, but after Bristol last week where the force of the car and constant maneuvering of the pedals may have been tough, it looks like Hamlin came to the realization he needs to get it done sooner than later. On Monday, Hamlin will have surgery and then be off for two weeks to heal before their next race in Phoenix.
 
It’s hard to pinpoint Hamlin’s struggles this season on the knee, which he said wasn’t bothering him, but no top 10s through five races has to have blame placed somewhere. Whether it was subconscious or not, the knee had to play some role in the poor start. Had it not been for the news of the knee surgery, Hamlin would have been rated much higher to win the race, but because it’s so demanding on the driver at this track, he was dropped a few notches.  
 
Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car — or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.
 
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500
Martinsville Speedway
Sunday, March 28 — 10:15 a.m. (PDT)

Rating Driver                Odds         Practice 1      Qualifying*       Practice 2      Practice 3
1. Jeff Burton                  15/1                21st               7th                1st                  2nd        
Ran the most laps in Saturday’s practice with best results. Converted 2009 Charlotte chassis for this race. One career win with average finish of 14.6 for the Virginian.
 
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.    20/1                 15th               8th                22nd              7th
Best average lap times in happy hour. New chassis for this race. Fifth-best NASCAR loop rating at track with career best finish of second place in 2008.
 
3. Jeff Gordon                  6/1                 4th                11th               5th                 4th
Seven-time winner with average finish of 6.8. Has top-five finish in last 10 starts. Strong in every practice with single lap and average times.
 
4. Denny Hamlin             5/1                 5th                19th               7th                 5th
The native Virginian won two of the last four; solid practice times while debuting new chassis. Fourth-best NASCAR loop rating.
 
5. Jimmie Johnson         7/2                 7th                3rd                16th                9th
The six-time winner is debuting new chassis and the team struggled (by their standards) with it. He has nine straight top-5 finishes.
 
6. Juan Pablo Montoya 18/1                6th               22nd               4th                6th
His best statistical non-road course track on the schedule with average finish of 11th, including third place in last race there. Third-fastest average speeds in happy hour.
 
7. Mark Martin                 15/1               2nd               16th                1st                8th
Last of his two career wins came in 2000. Using same car that finished eighth at Martinsville last fall. Second-fastest average speeds in happy hour.
 
8. Tony Stewart               12/1             13th                5th                 8th                28th
Debuts new chassis this week. Two career wins and average finish of 12.0. Finished third in this race last year.
 
9. Jamie McMurray         35/1              10th               15th                9th               1st
Fastest in happy hour on what is his third-best track, with an average finish of 15.6.  
 
10.Kevin Harvick             12/1             16th                 1st                 13th              13th                 
Using Chassis that teammate Clint Bowyer won with at New Hampshire (2007) and Richmond (2008). Huge advantage of pitting out of first box. Winner in Nationwide and Trucks, but no Cup wins at Martinsville.       
 
* Qualifying rained out and set by driver points.
 
Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR betting lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He writes for various sports publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@Gmail.com.
 
 
Quotes
 
Jimmie Johnson on the value of the first pit stall at Martinsville:
"It's (worth) at least a second," Johnson said. "If you have a 14-second stop, and everybody (else) has a 13-second stop, you come out even. So it is a huge advantage. ... Kevin does a good job, and his pit crew's been real fast all day long, so I would expect him to make good use of this opportunity."
 
Greg Biffle on copying Paul Menard’s setup last week, a sign that Menard has finally arrived:
"They've gotten the car to his liking this season and, to be perfectly honest with you, we copied his entire setup into our car at the (spoiler) test (Tuesday and Wednesday at Charlotte Motor Speedway). I think there are a lot of factors to why they are running well, and I'm really happy to see it happening.
 
Martinsville Speedway Odds and Ends
Compiled by NASCAR Media Service
 
History
· Opened in September 1947 by H. Clay Earles. Martinsville, originally a dirt track, is one of the oldest continuously operating race tracks in the United States.
· The first NASCAR-sanctioned race at Martinsville was on July 4, 1948.
· The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was Sept. 25, 1949.
· The track was paved in 1955.
· The first 500-lap event at Martinsville was in 1956.
· Concrete corners were added atop asphalt in 1976.
 
Notebook
· There have been 122 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Martinsville Speedway, one in the inaugural year and two races per year since 1950.
· Curtis Turner won the pole for the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Martinsville in 1949.
· Red Byron won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
· 55 drivers have won poles, led by Darrell Waltrip with eight. Jeff Gordon has seven poles.
· Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin and Darrell Waltrip share the consecutive pole record, each with three.
· 45 different drivers have won, led by Richard Petty’s 15.
· Jeff Gordon leads active drivers with seven wins. Jimmie Johnson has six.
· 18 races have been won from the pole, the last by Jimmie Johnson in October 2008.
· Petty Enterprises has won 19 races, more than any other organization. Hendrick Motorsports, with 18 wins, can tie that mark this weekend.
· Kurt Busch won the 2002 fall race from the 36th starting position, the furthest back a race winner has started.
· Three active drivers average a top 10: Jimmie Johnson (5.1), Jeff Gordon (6.8), Denny Hamlin (7.2).
· The last three races that have ended under green have had a margin of victory under one second.
 
Martinsville Speedway Data
Race #: 6 of 36 (3-28-10)
Track Size: .526 mile
Race Length: 500 laps/263 miles
· Banking/Corners: 12 degrees
· Banking/Straights: 0 degrees
· Frontstretch: 800 feet
· Backstretch: 800 feet
 
Driver Rating at Martinsville
Jimmie Johnson 125.5
Jeff Gordon 123.0
Tony Stewart 112.5
Denny Hamlin 109.1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 98.8
Kevin Harvick 90.8
Kyle Busch 89.7
Mark Martin 87.5
Jamie McMurray 87.5
Juan Pablo Montoya 87.4
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (10 total) at Martinsville Speedway.
 
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: None (inclement weather)
2009 race winner: Jimmie Johnson, 75.938 mph, 3-29-09)
Track qualifying record: Tony Stewart (98.083 mph, 19.306 secs., 10-21-05)
Race record: Jeff Gordon (82.223 mph, 9-22-96)
 
Estimated Pit Window: Every 140-150 laps, based on fuel mileage.
 
NASCAR in Virginia
* There have been 266 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Virginia.
* 158 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as Virginia.
* There have been 18 race winners from Virginia in NASCAR’s three national series.
 
NASCAR ODDS
 
Odds to Win GOODY'S FAST PAIN RELIEF 500--Adjusted after Happy Hour
MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, MARCH 28, 2010
 
JIMMIE JOHNSON 7/2
MARK MARTIN 12
JEFF GORDON 6
KYLE BUSCH 25
DENNY HAMLIN 4
JUAN MONTOYA 15
TONY STEWART 12
CARL EDWARDS 25
GREG BIFFLE 50
KURT BUSCH 18
KASEY KAHNE 50
CLINT BOWYER 12
KEVIN HARVICK 12
JEFF BURTON 12
BRIAN VICKERS 100
MATT KENSETH 35
DALE EARNHARDT JR 20
JOEY LOGANO 100
RYAN NEWMAN 75
MARTIN TRUEX JR 100
DAVID REUTIMANN 100
JAMIE McMURRAY 20
DAVID RAGAN 100
BRAD KESELOWSKI 300
MARCOS AMBROSE 50
SAM HORNISH JR 500
AJ ALLMENDINGER 200
ELLIOTT SADLER 500
PAUL MENARD 500
BOBBY LABONTE 500
REGAN SMITH 500
SCOTT SPEED 500
TRAVIS KVAPIL 1000
FIELD 300
 
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book