Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers win this election

In an election year, lies fly and the truth routinely gets stretched. It’s hard to truly believe in any candidate. But this is the time to believe in Aaron Rodgers.

My vote for the NFL’s best quarterback goes to Rodgers, and the Green Bay Packers are my pick to win the Super Bowl. I arrived at that not-so-shocking conclusion after hours of research and careful speculation.

It would be melodramatic to claim it’s now or never for Rodgers and the Packers, who last won the Super Bowl in 2011. Still, now seems like the prime time.

“I look for the Packers to have a bounce-back season,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said. “If any quarterback comes in with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder, I think it would be Rodgers.”

Everyone who bets the NFL or plays in a fantasy league understands the importance of quarterbacks, and the position is going through a dramatic transition.

Peyton Manning has retired and become a full-time commercial actor. Tom Brady is 39 and suspended for the first four weeks of the season. Drew Brees is 37 and not getting any stronger or taller. Carson Palmer is a boxer barely hanging on in the 12th round. Philip Rivers is full of energy but losing on all scorecards in the 10th round. Ben Roethlisberger is as beat up as a crash-test dummy. Tony Romo has turned into a rag doll.

Joe Flacco, Eli Manning and Matt Ryan as are useful as mannequins most weeks.

Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford are stiffs collecting major paychecks for minimal work.

The next generation of quarterbacks — led by Andrew Luck, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson and including Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Brock Osweiler, Ryan Tannehill, Tyrod Taylor and Jameis Winston — will produce some legitimate superstars.

“It’s a league that lacks a lot of depth and a lot of young stars at the quarterback position at this point,” Esposito said. “My top pick would be either Rodgers or Wilson. Rodgers is just so good. I really like Wilson a lot.”

Rodgers is probably the only Super Bowl-winning quarterback still in his prime (age 32) and playing for a team still on the rise. The Packers will be much improved defensively this season, and with top wide receiver Jordy Nelson returning from a knee injury, their offense can be dynamic again.

“If Nelson is healthy, it changes that offense so dramatically,” Esposito said. “Green Bay’s offense is as good as any in the league. The Packers are my pick in the NFC, as well.”

An argument can be made for Roethlisberger, who’s 34 but with a lot of mileage on his tires, and there is no counting out the Pittsburgh Steelers.

New England and Seattle still count as serious contenders, too. Brady, who also will have a chip on his shoulder, has won four Super Bowls with the Patriots. Wilson has been to two and won one with the Seahawks.

It’s a thrill to hit a long-shot bet, but the truth is the so-called sleeper teams rarely win the Super Bowl and pay the bills. My money is on the Packers at 8-1 odds.

FANTASY WORLD

The window appears closed on the New Orleans Saints, who won the Super Bowl in 2010. Brees is not going back to Disney World. But he’s certainly capable of winning another passing yards title.

William Hill sports books posted odds on which quarterback will lead the league in regular-season passing yards. Brees is the favorite at 4-1. He won that title four of the past five years. The Saints will be trailing in most games, so Brees will be throwing a lot, but his receivers are no longer as talented.

If Brees’ numbers drop off this season, who can overtake him?

I would bet on Rivers (8-1) or Rodgers (12-1). San Diego will be playing from behind much of the time, and Rivers’ supporting cast is better than last year, when he finished second in passing yards (4,792) to Brees (4,870).

If Nelson stays healthy, with Randall Cobb as a reliable No. 2 receiver, Rodgers could have a career year. The Packers are loaded, and their schedule is relatively soft.

TOP WIN TOTALS

Bet under on the Atlanta Falcons (7½), Chicago Bears (7½), Dallas Cowboys (9), Los Angeles Rams (7½) and Oakland Raiders (8½). The first four teams face a pile of problems, starting at quarterback. The Raiders face a rough schedule that has 8-8 written all over it.

I’ll look over on the Packers (11) and Patriots (10½). Seven teams won 11 or more games last season, and Green Bay and New England will be in that elite class this season. Add Baltimore (8) to the list. The Ravens are my sleeper pick.

BOLD PREDICTIONS

■ Paxton Lynch will be Denver’s starting quarterback before the end of October. Lynch will be more productive and win more games as a rookie than the quarterbacks selected No. 1 (Jared Goff) and No. 2 (Carson Wentz) in the draft.

■ Luck will pass for at least 30 touchdowns in a bounce-back sort of season, but the Indianapolis Colts will miss the postseason.

■ Robert Griffin III and the Cleveland Browns will win five games, stunning the NFL wagering world by topping their win total of 4½. But I’m not betting on it.

DIVISION WINNERS

In the AFC, it will be New England, Baltimore, Houston and Kansas City. In the NFC, it will be Washington, Green Bay, Carolina and Seattle.

And a final prediction, bold or not, is that Rodgers will be Most Valuable Player of the Super Bowl. That’s my vote in this election year.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247