At No. 2, Jabari Parker is NBA Draft’s best bet

A sure thing is hard to find in sports betting and basketball scouting, although some players are guaranteed to be great. Jabari Parker is a next-best-thing player.

Parker, the No. 2 pick of the NBA Draft on Thursday, will not be a Pam Anderson-sized bust when this class is reviewed a few years down the line. The 6-foot-8-inch forward from Duke is about as close as it gets to a guarantee.

Andrew Wiggins, a guard from Kansas and the top overall pick, is a risky proposition in my opinion.

And right now, it’s all about opinions. No one knows for certain which teams hit it big and which teams busted out in the draft. All we can do is handicap and speculate, but that’s what makes every draft great.

“I would probably take Wiggins,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill sports book director. “I think he’s got the most upside, and he’s a lot more athletic than Parker. But they are both going to be good NBA players.”

The Cleveland Cavaliers went with Wiggins, leaving the Milwaukee Bucks to pick up Parker. I’m guessing the Bucks were thrilled with the Cavaliers’ choice.

Wiggins is an incredible athlete who can win workouts but tends to fall asleep in games. Parker is a highly motivated and versatile offensive player who can roll out of bed and average 18 points as a rookie.

Parker is a franchise player. Wiggins is fit to be a second fiddle. Ironically, their roles were reversed Thursday.

That’s not to say the Cavaliers blew it, but they desperately need to get this pick right after getting it wrong — at this point, anyway — by using last year’s No. 1 pick on UNLV forward Anthony Bennett.

LeBron James, who opted out of his contract with Miami this week, is no closer to returning home to Cleveland today than he was yesterday. However, he might be more inclined to stick with the Heat.

Not much that happened in the first round should impact futures odds for next year’s NBA championship. But a couple of notable moves were made, first by Chicago and next by Miami.

The Bulls traded for Doug McDermott, a sharpshooting small forward from Creighton who gives them a much-needed offensive boost. In a way, he might also open the door for Chicago to lure free-agent star Carmelo Anthony, who opted out of his deal with the New York Knicks.

Imagine a lineup featuring Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Anthony and McDermott. Suddenly, a bet on the Bulls at 8-1 odds would look attractive.

The Heat had to appease James, and they did exactly that by trading up two spots to get point guard Shabazz Napier from Connecticut. Suddenly, James’ talents are more likely to stay on South Beach.

At least one Las Vegas bookmaker curiously removed NBA futures from the board when James opted out and put his future in question. But the LVH sports book made no adjustments — keeping Miami at 3-1 — and William Hill made only a minor change on Cleveland’s odds.

“I think it’s a definite overreaction if someone takes the futures down based on that,” Bogdanovich said. “I don’t know if there’s going to be much risk in keeping them up. Obviously, LeBron is the key.

“We lowered Cleveland because there’s a rumor LeBron might go there. But I don’t think he’ll go back there, to be honest. There’s a good chance he’s still going to go back to Miami.”

Back and foot injuries turned former Kansas center Joel Embiid into the draft’s ultimate high-risk, high-reward pick. Embiid might not contribute much next season for the Philadelphia 76ers, who seem to be tanking again.

I’m not willing to wager a dollar on Boston as a futures bet, but the Celtics came out as winners by selecting Oklahoma State point guard Marcus Smart at No. 6 and Kentucky small forward James Young at No. 17.

Thumbs-up signs from the first round also go to Sacramento, which pulled the trigger on Michigan shooting guard Nik Stauskas at No. 9, and San Antonio, which got even better by adding UCLA forward Kyle Anderson.

Some players will prove to be steak, and others will be Spam. The Knicks got a steal with a second-round leftover, Cleanthony Early of Wichita State.

The biggest shocker, at least to me, was that former UNR point guard Deonte Burton went undrafted.

As usual, the draft turned into a surprise party, crashed by a handful of foreign players whose names are hard to pronounce and whose futures are impossible to predict.

The closest thing to a sure thing is Parker, who will pay off for the Bucks.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.