Depleted 49ers a safe bet to go under win total

Until recently, Jim Tomsula was an unknown defensive line coach, and it's not going to be easy going from the trenches to the spotlight. The team he's coaching is declining, so that makes it tougher.

Ask any Las Vegas bookmaker which NFL team the bettors love to hate this season, and the San Francisco 49ers will be the answer.

Tomsula is not the main reason for the widespread dislike of the 49ers, whose sinking feeling is not his fault. He's replacing Jim Harbaugh, a victim of front-office politics and a power play, and he's not inheriting the team Harbaugh led to three consecutive NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl. It's more than a tough act to follow.

If the 49ers finish 8-8 in Tomsula's first season — matching their record in Harbaugh's final season — that would be a success. It also would be a big surprise.

Surprises happen every season, but it sure appears a San Francisco fiasco is more likely. The 49ers' regular-season win total, which opened as high as 8 at most sports books, has dropped to 7 (Under minus-200) and 6½ (Under even money).

Harbaugh's demise was the beginning of the end for a former title contending team. Nine starters have disappeared from the 49ers' Super Bowl defense, and the coaches who got the best out of quarterback Colin Kaepernick are long gone.

Kaepernick, a former UNR star, throws an impressive fastball but still is a raw talent. He has erratic mechanics and struggles if his first read is not available. He will miss Harbaugh. But it's not all gloom and doom.

There is enough talent around Kaepernick — left tackle Joe Staley, wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith, tight end Vernon Davis and running backs Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush — for the 49ers to be effective offensively.

San Francisco's defense, for the first time in a long time, will be a weakness. The schedule, on paper at this point, is brutal. The 49ers might be favored only twice in their 10 games before Thanksgiving.

I see a 6-10 finish in the 49ers' future. Sharp money has drained the value from this bet. If you prefer to play it safe, lay the minus-200 and bet under 7, but I'll recommend under 6½ at even money as the play today.

Tomsula has Tom Selleck's mustache and Edward Smith's job … Smith was the captain of the Titanic.

August is not the ideal time to bet win totals, because most of the numbers have been pounded and adjusted, but there still are worthwhile plays. Shop for the best numbers. Here are seven more plays — using the best available lines from the CG Technology, MGM Resorts, South Point, Station Casinos, Westgate and William Hill books — that should pay off in early January:

• Carolina Panthers (Under 8½, minus-150): Cam Newton is already scrambling. His top wideout, Kelvin Benjamin, was lost for the season Wednesday with a left knee injury. The 6-foot-5-inch Benjamin had 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie. Newton desperately needed him. Carolina's offense will suffer without him.

The Panthers won the NFC South with a 7-8-1 record last season, and it's hard to argue they will be better. Bookmakers made a small adjustment in this price the past two days, but it's not enough. Nine wins seems highly unlikely.

• Chicago Bears (Under 7, minus-160): In the NFC North, Green Bay and Minnesota are improved, and Detroit is a playoff contender. The Bears, 5-11 last season, again will be sleeping on the couch in the basement. John Fox is a coaching upgrade, but quarterback Jay Cutler is an overpaid underachiever.

The Bears' total is 6½ at some books, with the price to bet under at even money to plus-120. I'll lay a higher price, choosing to play it safe and not get beat by 7-9.

• Green Bay Packers (Over 11, minus-110): It's possible Aaron Rodgers can put up bigger numbers after passing for 38 touchdowns with five interceptions a year ago. The Green Bay offense returns 11 starters and will play at a faster pace with Tom Clements calling plays instead of coach Mike McCarthy. The run defense should be stronger. This is a team with few weaknesses.

The Packers are my pick to win the Super Bowl. After opening 1-2 last season, they finished 12-4. In each of the past two seasons, nine teams won 11 or more games, so betting over 11 is not that intimidating.

• Houston Texans (Over 8½, plus-100): I really like Bill O'Brien, a no-nonsense taskmaster who drops F-bombs like he's getting paid for four-letter words on HBO's "Hard Knocks." O'Brien is a Bill Belichick clone. But O'Brien does not have Tom Brady. He has two question marks at quarterback, and running back Arian Foster is injured. Still, the Texans' defense is strong and their schedule is soft.

• New Orleans Saints (Under 9, minus-150): Drew Brees' passing numbers are about to decline. He missed running back Darren Sproles last season, and he will miss tight end Jimmy Graham, who caught 10 of his 33 touchdown passes, even more. The Saints plan to run and be more physical, a plan that might backfire. This is an 8-8 team, 9-7 at best.

• New York Jets (Under 7½, minus-110): First-year coach Todd Bowles will field a strong defense that should keep the Jets in most games. But whether it's Ryan Fitzpatrick or Geno Smith, they will not have the better quarterback on the field in most games. The schedule is rough, and so too will be the road to 8-8. It's a huge challenge for the Jets, off a 4-12 finish, to move up in the AFC East.

• St. Louis Rams (Over 8, plus-140): It's time for coach Jeff Fisher's breakthrough year, and the timing might be right. Nick Foles is a significant improvement at the quarterback position, the Rams can run the ball and Fisher has built up the defense.

In the NFC West, Seattle does not appear as dominant, Arizona is solid but beatable, and San Francisco is slipping into the cellar. The Rams finish the season on the road against the 49ers, and that Jan. 3 game could decide this bet.

— Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247