Free-fallin’ Longhorns aren’t worth betting on

Not that long ago, Texas coach Rick Barnes was enjoying the view from college basketball's penthouse. His team was 17-0 and ranked No. 1 by the fools who waste their time filling out the ballots every week.

The polls mean next to nothing. They are meaningless games of musical chairs. Who's No. 1 and who's No. 21 this week -- who cares? The NCAA Tournament decides the chaos.

The only poll that means something is the final one, and Texas might not find itself in it. In fact, the Longhorns, 23-7 and sixth in the Big 12 Conference, are nowhere to be found in The Associated Press Top 25 this week. They are free fallin', as Tom Petty would say.

Barnes has been evicted from his high-rise condo, even blaming himself for "as poor a coaching job as I've done." At least he's not publicly pointing fingers at his players.

"Texas has a lot of highly recruited players, and the sum of their parts does not really equal their individual talent," said Vegas Sports Authority handicapper Paul Stone, who closely follows the Big 12.

Two of those parts, senior forward Damion James and freshman guard Avery Bradley from Findlay Prep, are rock solid. James is one of the nation's top 10 players, and Bradley has a bright future.

As December turned to January and the Longhorns kept rolling, "It looks like it's all blending together, and it's looking like a possible Final Four team," Stone said. "They just somewhere along the way, without warning, lost their way. The wheels have just come off."

It's possible for a team to have too much talent, partly because it leads to arrogance and selfishness. Barnes recruited a Rivals.com all-star team, and not enough players are willing to do the dirty work.

Texas is 3-14 against the spread in 2010, with two of the covers coming against Oklahoma State. Because of the Longhorns' talent and their public perception, they have been overvalued, still regarded by many as the former No. 1 team that can flip the switch at any time.

"As a bettor, I think we all know, until you see something different from the recent results, you continue to ride the hot hand," Stone said. "Texas has been losing decisively on the road for over a month."

The Longhorns are on the road Saturday at Baylor, which will be about a 3½-point favorite. Texas is 1-9 ATS in true road games.

Stone is riding the Bears, who have won eight of their past 10. That stretch started with an 80-77 overtime victory at Texas on Jan. 30, when Tweety Carter had the hot hand for Baylor with 27 points.

James was a monster in that game with 20 points and 19 rebounds. But he can't solve all the problems for the Longhorns, who are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the nation at 62.7 percent. Still, if Barnes can push the right buttons, Texas has the talent to make a minor run in the NCAA Tournament.

Another team in free fall is defending national champion North Carolina, which is headed for the National Invitation Tournament at 16-14 and 5-10 in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

The Tar Heels will be about 15-point underdogs at Duke. Coming off a loss at Maryland, expect the Blue Devils to show no mercy. Duke has won its seven home ACC games by an average of 18 points.

Stone recommends plays on Arkansas, a 1½-point home underdog to Mississippi, and Marquette, a 6½-point home favorite over Notre Dame. Despite an injury to senior star Luke Harangody, the Irish are sticking to the NCAA bubble.

"Notre Dame has been impressive playing without Harangody, but at some point it will start to miss his 24 points and 10 rebounds a game," said Stone (Vegassportsauthority.com). "Marquette might be somewhat under the national radar, but it is playing exceptionally well and has an NCAA Tournament bid wrapped up."

One team that won't play beyond Saturday, despite a winning record, is Southern California.

The Trojans, banned from the postseason, finish coach Kevin O'Neill's first season with a game at Arizona. Look for a strong effort from USC as about a 3-point underdog. O'Neill was pushed out as the Wildcats' named successor to Lute Olson.

With most conference tournaments about to begin, the Las Vegas Hilton is posting odds to win. Gonzaga is the 2-5 favorite in the West Coast Conference tourney, which tips today at the Orleans Arena.

The Longhorns will be a long shot to win the Big 12 next week, and seldom has a team fallen so far, so fast from a No. 1 ranking.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.