Games don’t count, but NFL still stirs interest

Under normal circumstances, the San Diego Chargers probably would have won and covered in a blowout. Philip Rivers showed no signs of rust, firing passes as if it were November.

But the NFL preseason leaves everyone feeling a little irregular. Fear of the unknown is a factor some bettors prefer to avoid.

Others embrace it, believing the games are beatable and the pursuit can be profitable.

Either way, the lines were up and Las Vegas sports books were back in business Thursday night with five games on the schedule. The amount of action was an initial indication that big things are coming.

"For the first day of preseason, I would actually say it's incredible. It's much more than I expected," said Mike Colbert, Cantor Gaming sports book director at M Resort. "Obviously, there was a chance there could be no football, and I just think people are extremely excited to have NFL action back."

There were curses and screams in the Las Vegas Hilton sports book, just not as many as you hear on a Sunday, and there were no long lines for $1 hot dogs.

The truth is, there is no shame in betting preseason games. Some are solid betting opportunities, and others are shaky at best. But the regular season has plenty of random results, too.

Rivers hit 5 of 6 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown, then took a breather, allowing the Seattle Seahawks some life. The Chargers, 3-point favorites, surrendered a 10-0 halftime lead and lost, 24-17.

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll celebrated in the final minute as if he had just won the Rose Bowl, lending validity to the theory that some coaches really do want to win in the preseason.

On that note, it's almost always a bad idea to bet against Bill Belichick.

The New England Patriots didn't even need Tom Brady to put a 47-12 beatdown on Jacksonville. The Patriots opened as 4-point favorites, and the line closed at 3½. The total was 35, which is right about where most preseason totals are set.

The Patriots were a good wagering opportunity Thursday, as they will be frequently in the regular season. This is not a knee-jerk reaction to a meaningless game, but New England's win total of 11½ looks a little low.

When the Denver-Dallas game kicked off, the Kyle Orton-Tim Tebow quarterback derby was under the microscope. Orton still has a big lead. But the Broncos blew the game, losing 24-23 when the Cowboys scored on a fourth-down pass and a 2-point conversion pass with 15 seconds remaining.

One hard-to-ignore trend was Philadelphia coach Andy Reid's 0-7 record in his past seven preseason openers. But that angle failed to pay off for the sharp bettors on Baltimore. The Eagles, 3-point favorites, won 13-6 in the type of sloppy, low-scoring game that was expected to be commonplace in this post-lockout preseason.

Underdogs covered three of the five games, but scores soared, with all but one going over the total.

"All in all, I expect these to be sloppier than normal preseason games, which can result in turnovers and can kill even the best handicapped scenario," said Jim Kruger of VegasSportsAuthority.com. "This preseason, especially Game 1, has me a little more gun-shy to place a full-unit wager on a game early."

Betting on New England and against Indianapolis might be a simple starting point. With quarterback Peyton Manning out with a neck injury, the Colts are turning their offense over to Curtis Painter.

The Colts, 1-7 straight up and 2-6 against the spread under coach Jim Caldwell in the preseason, are 7-point underdogs at St. Louis on Saturday. The line is inflated for a reason.

"I think in general people do know to bet against the Colts in the preseason," Colbert said. "It's been a hell of a formula for quite a few years."

■ BOTTOM LINES -- Hilton golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman picked Steve Stricker to win the PGA Championship, and so far that call looks good. Stricker, who shot a first-round 63 to take a two-shot lead, was offered at 20-1 before the tournament and became the 9-4 favorite on the adjusted odds.

"I came to a conclusion that Stricker would have been a favorite over any golfer in a matchup," said Sherman, who will post adjusted odds after rounds two and three. "It could be interesting to see if anyone can put a scare into Stricker over the weekend. There's not a lot of big names that are within striking distance of him."

Tiger Woods, who was a popular play at 25-1, shot himself in the foot with a 7-over 77. Woods' funk is fascinating to watch, and he's now listed at 200-1.

"A lot of the golf analysts on TV keep saying Tiger is going to regain it," Sherman said. "I don't know."

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.