Manning, Giants seem ready for another late-season surge

It should come as no surprise that Eli Manning is backed against the wall, with the outlook bleak this week for the slumping New York Giants. The same was true a year ago, and it seems this way every year.

If a team truly is a reflection of its quarterback, it all makes sense. The Giants often mirror Manning's regular-season mediocrity. He does just enough to get them to the playoffs, where he tends to make great things happen.

Nothing is guaranteed in NFL handicapping. Even the strongest trends can be paper-thin, and the Giants are proof of that.

Over the past several years, coach Tom Coughlin's crew earned a reputation for being road warriors, riding into rival towns and wreaking havoc like a ruthless biker gang. On the road and in the underdog role, the Giants delivered as a cash machine.

But lately, the Giants are coming up short on the road, losing three in a row, the most recent an embarrassing 34-0 setback at Atlanta. Manning threw two interceptions in the first half, and he failed to record a touchdown pass for the fourth time in the past seven games.

If Manning's back was not squarely against the wall last week, it is now. Tied with Dallas and Washington atop the NFC East, New York (8-6) needs to win its final two games to sneak into the playoffs.

The mystery of Manning is something to which the Baltimore Ravens can relate, because the average Joe Flacco is sinking their season. The Ravens (9-5) have clinched a postseason spot despite dropping three straight games.

Baltimore canned its offensive coordinator and promoted Jim Caldwell, a clueless play caller. Flacco continues to flop while Ray Rice, one of the league's toughest running backs, picks up rust when he should be carrying the offense.

The Ravens' defense, riddled by injuries and ranking 26th, might get some help if linebacker Ray Lewis returns, but he won't be Superman.

A year ago, the Giants were 7-7 and needed to win the last two games, which they did, and that led Manning on the road to winning his second Super Bowl. Nothing guarantees something similar will happen again.

But I'll back the Giants as 2½-point favorites at Baltimore on Sunday. It looks like the line should be Pick, but the Giants probably are laying points on the road for a reason. Manning won at San Francisco and Dallas in October, and he usually gets it done when he needs to in December.

Four more plays for Week 16 (home team in CAPS):

■ Saints (+3) over COWBOYS: Tony Romo has been riding a lucky roll, but Dallas is back in its worst role as a home favorite. The Cowboys are 1-6 against the spread on their home field, covering in overtime last week as small 'dogs against Pittsburgh. Drew Brees and the Saints are wildly inconsistent, and I'm not convinced they will show up and put it all together. Romo and the Cowboys, who keep pulling off fourth-quarter comebacks, cannot be trusted.

■ EAGLES (+6½) over Redskins: The line value is with the home 'dog, mainly because Andy Reid likely is coaching his final game in Philadelphia. The Eagles should be somewhat inspired, and running back LeSean McCoy's return can provide another boost. Washington welcomes back Robert Griffin III, and a weak Philadelphia defense will have a hard time controlling the rookie quarterback, so that's an obvious concern.

■ JETS (-2½) over Chargers: Both teams are a mess, but at least the Jets finally benched quarterback Mark Sanchez. If Greg McElroy falters, maybe Tim Tebow can save the day. San Diego put leading rusher Ryan Mathews and leading receiver Malcom Floyd on injured reserve after a 24-point home loss to Carolina. Norv Turner's next job could be offensive coordinator of the Jets.

■ SEAHAWKS (+1) over 49ers: Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson is 6-0 at home, where the Seattle defense has a good shot to rattle San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers are in a tough spot after their big win at New England. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, 0-3 against Jim Harbaugh in the NFL, has a score to settle against his bitter rival.

Last week: 3-2 against the spread

Season: 50-24-1

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.