Taylor, Bills worth a bet against Dolphins

If only the Buffalo Bills had a quarterback, they would be in business. That statement was true in recent years, but for a team that was bankrupt at the NFL's most important position, a gamble on Tyrod Taylor could be paying off.

It's possible the Bills finally have found a quarterback who won't let one of the league's best defenses go to waste.

In his first two starts, Taylor was thrown into the ring opposite two proven heavyweights. He beat Andrew Luck and did a respectable job of trading shots with Tom Brady. Buffalo split against Indianapolis and New England, and a split was a good start.

Rex Ryan is all about bold statements, yet the new Bills coach has been quiet this week after his defense was shredded by Brady and he admitted to being outcoached by Bill Belichick.

The Miami Dolphins, coached by clueless Joe Philbin, do not pose the same type of threat Sunday. Philbin's teams lack discipline and preparation and continue to underachieve. The Dolphins are off a loss to Jacksonville, which says a lot.

It also sounds strange to say this, but Buffalo ranks fourth in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.5 points per game. Taylor has been surprisingly efficient in the passing game, completing 75.5 percent (37 of 49) of his throws.

Taylor has two speed receivers — Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins — and elite running back LeSean McCoy to help his development. McCoy is probable to play Sunday, and his production should increase as he heals from a hamstring injury. The bottom line is the Bills' offense is finally a worthy complement to their defense.

In the two matchups last season, Buffalo sacked Miami's Ryan Tannehill nine times. The Dolphins are banged up around Tannehill, and their defensive line, which was expected to be dominant with the addition of Ndamukong Suh, has been a disappointment.

The trends point to the Bills' side. As coach of the New York Jets, Ryan covered his last three games and six of eight against the Dolphins. Buffalo has won three of the past four in the series. Philbin is 4-7 against the spread in his past 11 games as a home favorite.

I'll take the Bills as 3-point underdogs — the line is slowly moving toward 2½ — and expect the gamble to pay off.

Four more plays for Week 3 (home team in CAPS):

RAMS (Pick) over Steelers — This is a case of opposites attract. The Pittsburgh offense was unstoppable a week ago, with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown lighting up the 49ers, who were in a terrible spot. Brown leads the league with 328 yards receiving, and Roethlisberger leads the league at 11.1 yards per passing attempt. Now, everyone is enthralled with the Steelers and falling out of love with the Rams, who were flat in a bad spot at Washington. This is a spot for St. Louis to recapture the magic it showed in a Week 1 upset of Seattle.

VIKINGS (-2½) over Chargers — Minnesota is most effective when it sticks to the basics, such as staying committed to the ground. Adrian Peterson was handed the ball 29 times and ran for 134 yards last week. San Diego ranks 21st in run defense. The matchup on the ground favors the Vikings. Of course, the Chargers have a much better quarterback in Philip Rivers, so that's a potential problem.

Colts (-3) over TITANS — Andrew Luck has looked bad behind a brutal offensive line, and Indianapolis is a disaster after two games. But anger and chaos could spur the Colts this week. It also helps that the Tennessee defense is soft in comparison to the Bills and Jets. Luck is 14-2 straight up and ATS after a loss.

Chiefs (+6½) over PACKERS — It's tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field, but maybe he will have a Seattle hangover. This is mostly a trend play. Since the middle of last season, teams are 0-11 the week after playing the Seahawks. Kansas City coach Andy Reid is on a 5-3 ATS run as a road 'dog, and his team is on extra rest. This line might move to 7 by Monday night.

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

Season: 5-5

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow: @mattyoumans247.