Underdog Colts are smart play, even against post-bye-perfect Eagles

At first glance, everything seems to be lining up just right for Philadelphia Eagles coach Andy Reid.

Off a week of rest, Reid has his teams ready to go again. The Eagles are 11-0 off the bye with Reid calling the shots, so nobody does it better.

The veteran quarterback he dumped in the offseason, Donovan McNabb, already is wearing out his welcome with his new coach in Washington.

The two quarterbacks he kept, Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb, are playing at higher levels than expected.

Vick, who missed three games because of a rib cartilage injury, is returning, and so is wide receiver DeSean Jackson, who has recovered from a concussion.

Philadelphia (4-3) has remained in contention while NFC East rival Dallas has completely fallen apart.

But on second thought, Reid is facing one dilemma. Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts (5-2) are paying a visit on Sunday.

The Colts have won 13 consecutive games in November, and no opponent has made Reid weep quite like the Colts. The Eagles under Reid are 0-3 against Indianapolis, which outscored Philadelphia 124-51 in those three games.

These are not the same Colts, who are depleted by key injuries. But as long as Manning still is firing passes and Reggie Wayne is running routes, the Colts are not that much different.

The other question is, will Vick be a different quarterback? He was a dynamic playmaker before the injury layoff. Now he comes back to face Indianapolis' fearsome pass-rushing tandem of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who have combined for 10½ sacks.

This is a tough call, considering Reid's perfection off the bye and Manning's dwindling supporting cast, but I can't pass on the Colts as 3-point underdogs.

The NFL lineup looks pretty ugly this week, which must be the case when the winless Buffalo Bills appear somewhat attractive.

Four more plays for Week 9 (Home team in CAPS):

■ Jets (-4) over LIONS: It's getting dangerous to bet against Detroit, which is improving defensively and can score easily with receiver Calvin Johnson and running back Jahvid Best making big plays. The Jets were shut out at home last week, and proud teams that get embarrassed usually respond. Jets coach Rex Ryan has been tough on the road at 3-0 this season.

■ Patriots (-4) over BROWNS: New England, 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread, could be lethargic after three straight emotional wins. But this is a bet on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to get it done against Browns coach Eric Mangini and rookie QB Colt McCoy.

■ Chiefs (+1½) over RAIDERS: Darren McFadden is more than capable of carrying Oakland to another win here. I'm starting to like the Raiders, but it's getting too crowded on their bandwagon. A strong series trend points to the Chiefs, who have won and covered seven straight at Oakland.

■ Steelers (-4½) over BENGALS: The Pittsburgh defense should suffocate Carson Palmer and the Bengals' dysfunctional offense. The Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine at Cincinnati.

Last week: 1-4 against the spread

Season: 20-17-3

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports writer Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.