Wager and wait on NFL win totals

DEL MAR, Calif.

A day after California Chrome cruised to victory in the Pacific Classic, it was quieter at this racetrack by the beach. Blue skies blanketed a normal day of racing, although a normal day here is exceptional.

If there is a gambler’s paradise, the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club is it. It’s a party attended by beautiful fillies, and there are plenty of horses to bet, too. The vibe is always positive, and the inevitable bad beats never sting as much.

Soon enough, there will be no quiet Sundays in Las Vegas. The NFL will create chaotic madness in the sports books, and that’s something to look forward to, too.

The contrasts between betting football and the horses are obvious. The races can present more long-shot payoffs and instant gratification, with bets decided in two minutes. A football game can be a three-hour grind.

Playing regular-season win totals in the NFL is a different animal. It’s a four-month wait to cash a ticket, if you’re lucky enough to win it.

There is no California Chrome in the NFL this season, no clear-cut favorite that should romp to the wire five lengths in front of the pack.

Twenty-three of the 32 teams have win totals lined between 6 and 9½. Parity is reality. A year ago, the Carolina Panthers were projected to be an 8-8 team before going 15-1 and reaching the Super Bowl.

With the teams approaching the starting gate, it’s time to release my win-total best bets.

This is not an exercise in instant gratification. Expect a few photo finishes on Jan. 1, the final Sunday of the regular season.

Here are eight plays — using lines from the CG Technology, Golden Nugget, MGM Resorts, South Point, Station Casinos, Westgate and William Hill sports books — at one unit each that hopefully pay off in the distant future:

■ Chicago Bears (Under 7½, minus-130): The schedule is soft enough for the Bears to win eight games, but that’s probably their ceiling. On paper, this team is no better than last season, when the Bears finished 6-10, including 1-7 at home and 1-5 in the NFC North.

The quarterback is obviously a key, and in this case, Jay Cutler is an overpaid underachiever.

■ Dallas Cowboys (Under 9, plus-105): An explosive offense and a potentially poor defense lacking a pass rush should get the Cowboys involved in several high-scoring games. This team can win 10 only if quarterback Tony Romo stays healthy for most of the season. Romo getting injured seems more likely.

■ Green Bay Packers (Over 11, minus-110): Seven teams won 11 or more games last season. Green Bay, with the highest posted win total on the board, should be in that elite group this season. I prefer to play this over 11 than over 10½ at around minus-170. The Packers should have a top-10 defense, after ranking 15th a year ago, and wide receiver Jordy Nelson’s return will mean a better Aaron Rodgers.

■ Los Angeles Rams (Under 7½, minus-150): Rams coach Jeff Fisher stated on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” that he’s not tolerating 7-9 or 8-8 nonsense anymore. How about 6-10? There are a few things to like about the Rams, but the quarterback position is not one, especially if they play No. 1 draft pick Jared Goff.

■ New England Patriots (Over 10½, minus-130): It’s never a bad idea to bet on Bill Belichick and Tom Brady when motivated. Brady will return from a four-game suspension with a vengeance. In the meantime, Jimmy Garoppolo can lead the Patriots to a 2-2 or 3-1 start.

■ Oakland Raiders (Under 8½, plus-100): The Raiders are definitely on the rise, but they might be a year away from a playoff team mostly because of a brutal schedule that includes five trips east with early kickoff times in the first eight weeks. And third-year quarterback Derek Carr has to overcome his inconsistencies.

Also, the Raiders are a trendy sleeper pick, and that’s typically a bad sign.

■ San Diego Chargers (Under 7, plus-120): Philip Rivers is primed to put up big numbers again. He passed for 4,792 yards last season — second in the league to Drew Brees — despite mediocre receivers and a weak offensive line. The line is stronger, and second-year running Melvin Gordon looks better. But the defense appears to be a problem. Star safety Eric Weddle left for Baltimore, and end Joey Bosa, the No. 3 pick, has not shown up for training camp.

■ Seattle Seahawks (Over 10½, minus-140): Russell Wilson (34 touchdowns, eight interceptions) was the league’s highest-rated passer last season, when the Seattle defense ranked No. 1 in scoring. The Super Bowl hangover is no longer an issue.

Dissecting schedules is important when analyzing win totals. Aside from the road games against the Patriots and Packers, the Seahawks face one of the league’s softest schedules.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247