NFL Week 11 betting recap: Dolphins, Bills make bettors sweat

A week after the betting public lost on the NFL Sunday morning games and swept the afternoon slate, the script was flipped in Week 11.

Bettors kicked off the day with wins on the Dolphins and Bills. But the AFC East squads made them sweat. Especially Miami in a 16-13 overtime win over the Commanders in Madrid in a 6:30 a.m. contest that featured some curious coaching decisions by the Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel and Washington’s Dan Quinn.

In a tie game with 6:03 left, the Commanders turned it over on downs after failing to convert on fourth-and-goal at the 1. Washington forced Miami to punt but muffed the return and the Dolphins recovered. Miami then went for it on fourth—and-goal at the 1 rather than attempt a go-ahead field goal with 1:44 remaining and was stopped.

“Both those guys made catastrophic mistakes,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Take the points. I didn’t get it for either side why they didn’t kick the field goal.”

Dolphins bettors were bailed out when Washington kicker Matt Gay missed a 56-yard field goal with 15 seconds left, and Marcus Mariota threw an interception on the first play of overtime. McDaniel finally settled for a field goal by Riley Patterson, who kicked the winner from 29 yards out as gamblers exhaled.

“We didn’t do well on the Madrid game,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “Washington winning that game would’ve been really good for us. That one hurt us.”

The best game of the day for the public was Buffalo’s 44-32 win over the Buccaneers and cover as a 6½-point favorite.

Tampa Bay went ahead 32-31 early in the fourth quarter of the seesaw shootout but the Bills scored the final 13 points of the game on two touchdown runs by Josh Allen, who accounted for six scores — three rushing and three passing. After Allen scored with 2:35 left, the Bucs were driving for a possible backdoor cover when quarterback Baker Mayfield was strip-sacked and lost a fumble in Buffalo territory.

“The Bills-Buccaneers game (Sunday) morning dominated the action, with customers really betting into (same-game parlays),” Caesars sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel said. “It’s usually a great result for customers when 70-plus points are scored in a game and that was the case today.”

Don’t play favorites

Favorites went 9-4 straight-up but only 5-8 against the spread.

The other favorites that covered were the Steelers (-5½, beat Bengals 34-12), 49ers (-3½, beat Cardinals 41-22) and Eagles (-2½, beat Lions 16-9).

Four favorites that won but didn’t cover were the Packers (-7½, beat Giants 27-20), Ravens (-7½, beat Browns 23-16), Texans (-5½, beat Titans 16-13) and Rams (-3½, beat Seahawks 21-19).

The four underdogs that won outright were the Bears (+2½, beat Vikings 19-17), Panthers (+4½, beat Falcons 30-27), Jaguars (+3, beat Chargers 35-6) and Broncos (+4½, beat Chiefs 22-19).

“The 49ers were great for the bettors in the afternoon, and the Broncos winning late was good for the book, as we had lopsided action on the Chiefs all week,” Feazel said.

No afternoon delight

After three favorites and three overs delivered an easy six-team parlay to bettors in the afternoon games last week, the Niners were the only favorite to cover Sunday afternoon.

Sam Darnold threw four interceptions and Jason Myers missed a 61-yard field goal with one second left, but Seattle still managed to cover thanks to defense and its only touchdown of the game with 2:23 left on a 1-yard run by Kenneth Walker.

Denver tied it at 19-all on Will Lutz’s 54-yard field goal with 4:10 left, then won it on Lutz’s 35-yarder as time expired. The Broncos have won eight straight and are poised to end the Chiefs’ nine-year run as AFC West champions. Kansas City coach Andy Reid fell to 27-5 following a bye week.

“What really kind of set the stage was we were able to win three of the four (afternoon) games,” Esposito said. “Getting the Seahawks to cover, the Browns to cover and the Broncos to win outright was paramount in the afternoon.

“Overall, it was a pretty good day for us.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.