Is our future really all that electric?

In case you haven't heard, the push is on to develop electric vehicles as well as plug-in hybrids that, once the batteries run down, have a gas-powered generator engine fire up to provide the juice. The upcoming Chevrolet Volt comes to mind.

Electricity has been the dominating focus of the North American International Auto Show in Detroit (Jan. 11-24) and the theme will continue to cast a shadow on every other breakthrough in the automotive world for the foreseeable future. Just about every manufacturer is heading down the electric highway.

The frenzy is scary, actually. Battery developers are saying there's not enough production capacity to keep up with even the most pessimistic expectations for sales of electric vehicles. Ford says it will now plow $450 million into development of alternative-fuel vehicles and a plug-in hybrid, likely to rival the upcoming Chevrolet Volt that has also cost General Motors hundreds of millions -- if not billions -- of dollars to develop. Companies such as Mazda and Audi, both of which said at one time or another that they opposed hybrids, are now joining (Audi has said it's going electric just to prove it can and not because it wants to). And Honda just announced that some of its Acura models will be available with hybrid propulsion.

Certainly adding fuel to the fire, so to speak, is the federal government. President Barack Obama is fully behind alternative fuels and hybrid technology as a means of meeting tighter fuel-economy and emissions regulations. Pushing the environmental benefits is as much a political agenda as it is a moral one.

So, the government likes the idea of electrics and the automakers are dumping in tons of cash to develop the technology.

But has anyone asked buyers if they'll bite?

There's no question that hybrids are growing in popularity, but proportionately to the rate the automakers are spending money on the technology? No doubt the grand hope is that by the time a practical electric vehicle -- one that takes minutes to charge up and not hours, and one that doesn't cost a fortune -- finally hits the streets, that we'll all be converts ready to plunk down money.

The question that no one seems to be able to answer, let alone ask: Are automakers heading in the wrong direction?

Have they asked drivers what they actually want to park in their garages? Maybe, but so did someone else. In fact, a survey by Ernst & Young's Global Automotive Center may have turned up a small flaw in the electric plan, one that indicates that the billions spent on electric technology might not yield the sales to justify the investment. If I were a shareholder, I'd want to see the business plan.

As with any product being developed, you can generate hype and steer people toward it. I like the idea of an electric car as do many others, but will I buy one? Honestly -- and this is the issue -- it's too early to tell. The Ernst & Young survey polled 1,000 licensed American drivers about their views on electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids and found that just one-tenth would consider such a purchase. Consider? That could mean that one-tenth might buy ... or none of that one-tenth would buy.

Given the survey, you come to realize what a huge financial gamble that vehicles such as the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf really are, especially when the cost to buyers is a moving target.

Factors, of course, are price and refuel (recharge) time, both of which can't match thrifty and inexpensive small cars such as the Honda Fit or Toyota Yaris. And, let's face it, we all do the math for such a purchase based on the amount of fuel we'd save (cost recovery) versus the added cost of the electric vehicle. Never mind charge times. Since no pricetags exist, just speculation at this point, only two things are really known. Automakers will continue to pour money into electricity and uncommitted buyers will keep on wondering.

It's a big unknown. Let's hope the crystal ball is fully charged.

Rhonda Wheeler is a journalist with Wheelbase Communications, a worldwide supplier of automotive news, features and reviews. You can e-mail her by logging on to www.wheelbase.ws/mailbag.html.