UFC 203: Fight-by-fight breakdown and predictions

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of UFC 203 on Saturday in Cleveland:

Stipe Miocic (15-2) vs. Alistair Overeem (41-14-0, 1 No Contest)

Class: For Miocic’s heavyweight title

Line: Miocic minus-125

Storyline: Miocic won the title with a first-round knockout of Fabricio Werdum in May and set up the UFC to make its first visit to his hometown of Cleveland. The challenge now becomes keeping the belt, which is something no UFC heavyweight has done for any sustained period. Of the 18 previous champions in the division, none has successfully defended the belt more than twice. Miocic hopes to avoid joining the list of eight previous champs who have lost the belt in their next fight after winning it. That won’t be an easy task. While Miocic is a powerful and athletic striker, Overeem is among the sport’s most talented heavyweight strikers. He is a world-class kickboxer who moves like a much smaller fighter. Miocic is a college wrestler, but he hasn’t shown much desire to take fights to the ground. This is likely going to be a pure striking match that has the potential to end at any moment. The value in that scenario is squarely with the underdog.

Pick: Overeem by second-round knockout.

Fabricio Werdum (20-6-1) vs. Travis Browne (18-4-1)

Class: Heavyweight

Line: Werdum minus-200

Storyline: Werdum was enjoying the best run of his career when his title reign and six-fight winning streak were ended with one punch from Miocic in May. The improvements in his striking game may have been part of his downfall. Werdum spent much of his career as a highly skilled jiu-jitsu practitioner with questionable striking. He made huge strides in that area and even started to win fights with his kickboxing. While it helped him win the belt, he made a mistake against Miocic and paid the price. The question now is whether he will return to his roots. Werdum, who recently turned 39, would have a huge edge on the ground against Browne. His recent performances indicate he is more likely to try to stand with him, though, and Browne is too long and fast. Browne is also looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss after he was trounced by former champ Cain Velasquez in July.

Pick: Browne by second-round knockout.

Mickey Gall (2-0) vs. Phil “CM Punk” Brooks (0-0)

Class: Welterweight

Line: Gall minus-450

Storyline: Yes, those records are correct. Two fighters with a combined two fights will be squaring off on the main card of a major UFC pay-per-view event. Brooks was a professional wrestling superstar who left the fame and fortune of that world to pursue his dream of being a real fighter. The reviews have not been good. While he insists the training videos that have surfaced of him are from more than a year ago, he didn’t look great. Brooks began this journey without any formal training, and even though he has been training for about 18 months, he has never had so much as an amateur fight. Gall doesn’t have much experience, but he did have amateur fights and did compete once in the UFC to earn the opportunity to be the first opponent for Brooks. This could be incredibly sloppy, but there are a lot of people who could be tuning in to MMA for the first time to see Brooks fight, and that’s why he’s on the card.

Pick: Gall by first-round submission.

Urijah Faber (33-9) vs. Jimmie Rivera (19-1)

Class: Bantamweight

Line: Rivera minus-130

Storyline: Faber is a veteran who has put together an incredible career despite never holding the UFC title. He has won every nontitle fight during his time in the UFC with the exception of a loss to Frankie Edgar when he went up to featherweight, only to fall in each of his four title bouts. He’s coming off another championship loss to Dominick Cruz that led to speculation he could retire, but he’s back in action and ready to make another run. Rivera represents a huge hurdle on that path. He is on an 18-fight winning streak that includes victories in each of his three fights since signing with the UFC last year. Rivera is a high-volume boxer that should be dangerous in the standup. He has proven adept at stuffing takedowns and keeping fights in his comfort zone, but Faber represents a big step up in competition. This will be a major test. It just feels like a passing-of-the-torch type of fight. Rivera is on his way to stardom, while Faber could be on his way out. Faber can win if he gets the fight to the ground or wears out Rivera, but there is a reason Rivera is a slight favorite.

Pick: Rivera by decision.

Jessica Andrade (14-5) vs. Joanne Calderwood (11-1)

Class: Women’s strawweight

Line: Andrade minus-140

Storyline: Andrade was a fringe contender at 135 pounds before making the decision to make a big cut to the 115-pound division before her last fight. The early returns were terrific. Andrade looked like a completely different fighter in easily dispatching a legitimate opponent in Jessica Penne in her strawweight debut. Calderwood is a tough and durable striker, but she may be stepping in front of a buzzsaw. Andrade is a force who soon could be challenging strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk should she continue to turn in performances as she did in June. This price looks way too cheap.

Pick: Andrade by first-round knockout.