Trump’s 2028 election betting odds take hit, new GOP favorite emerges

President Donald Trump’s 2028 election betting odds improved in late June despite the two-term limit on the presidency in the Constitution.

But Trump’s chances to win the Republican nomination and the White House recently took a hit.

His odds to win the presidency for the third time have shot up from 6-1 to 10-1 at BetOnline, where he’s tied for the fourth favorite with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Vice President JD Vance is the clear +225 favorite to be elected the next president, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 6-1 and New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8-1.

Vance is now the odds-on -120 favorite to be the next Republican nominee and Rubio is the 5-1 second choice. Trump’s odds have soared from +350 to 8-1 at the offshore sportsbook, which isn’t regulated in the U.S.

“The big reason for changes on the GOP side is the growing negativity around Trump, with (his) health problems gaining media traction along with the (Jeffrey) Epstein saga,” BetOnline.ag political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty said.

Trump, 79, has been diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency, a common condition in which the veins in the arms and legs do not work well.

He suggested during his 2024 campaign that he’d seek to open the government’s Epstein files. Interest in the Epstein sex trafficking investigation has exploded over the past month after Attorney General Pam Bondi suggested she had an Epstein “client list” on her desk. She didn’t release documents with any new information, however.

“Trump has drifted badly across all our 2028 targets, and his odds of failing to complete this term have hit an all-time low,” Krishnamurty said. “We have also seen substantial bets for Trump to be the next world leader to exit their post.

“He is now tied for fifth on that list with 10-1 odds, holding the same chances as (French president) Emmanuel Macron — whose term expires in June 2027.”

At electionbettingodds.com, which averages live odds from Polymarket.com, Kalshi.com, Betfair.com, Smarkets.com and PredictIt.org, Vance has a 23.9 percent chance to be elected president in 2028. That equates to the +318 favorite. Newsom has an 8.3 percent chance for the 11-1 second choice, while Ocasio-Cortez has a 6.6 percent chance for the 14-1 third pick.

BetOnline reports that on the Democrat side, the book is seeing plenty of action on Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez. Newsom is the 3-1 favorite to be the 2028 Democratic nominee and Ocasio-Cortez is the +450 second choice.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris is the 7-1 third pick to be the next nominee and 12-1 sixth choice for president after she announced Wednesday she won’t be running for governor of California.

Antonio Villaraigosa and Xavier Becerra are the 3-1 co-favorites at BetOnline to be the next governor of California, followed by Eleni Kounalakis and Katie Porter at +350.

Betting on elections isn’t allowed in the U.S.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.