Sharp money moves line on Bills-Dolphins ‘Thursday Night Football’ game
The so-called smart money on the Jets over the Bills turned out to be as sharp as a bowling ball Sunday in Buffalo’s 30-10 rout of New York.
The sharp bettors are betting against the Bills again in their “Thursday Night Football” matchup with the Dolphins.
Buffalo is a consensus 11½-point home favorite after the line opened at 12½. The number has dipped as low as 11 at the Westgate SuperBook, which is offering reduced juice of -105 on both sides.
“There’s definitely some (sharp) money on Miami against Buffalo. They took 12½,” Westgate vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “Miami’s defense is so bad this year. But Miami can score. A team getting double digits that can score is always dangerous.
“It’s either play Miami or just pass. There’s no way you can lay the points with Buffalo.”
That might be the sharp mindset. But the betting public is all over Buffalo, which accounts for 75 percent of the tickets at BetMGM and STN Sports.
“We’ll definitely be huge Dolphins fans tonight,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Although we have seen some sharp play on the Dolphins early +12½, the public is backing the Bills.”
The sharp money outweighs the public action at BetMGM in Nevada.
“We need the Bills,” MGM Resorts director of trading Lamarr Mitchell said. “The tickets are 3-1 in favor of the Bills but there’s more money wagered on the Fins.”
The Bills will be missing two of their best defenders in defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle) and linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral).
Bettors also are banking on the game to go over the total, which inched up Thursday from 49½ to 50½.
At BetMGM, 80 percent of the money is on the over. Seventy-two percent of the tickets at STN Sports are on the over.
The last four meetings between the AFC East rivals in Orchard Park, New York, went over.
The Bills, who won and covered their first two games against the Ravens and Jets, have won the last six meetings with Miami and 13 of the last 14. The Dolphins have lost nine straight at Buffalo.
A Caesars Sportsbook bettor wagered $50,000 to win $6,250 on the Bills on the money line (-800).
Buffalo is on an 8-2 against the spread run at home, while Miami is on a 7-15 spread slide, including 0-2 this season after losses to the Colts and Patriots.
Favorites of seven points or more on “Thursday Night Football” are 44-29 ATS since 2005, per Bet Labs.
According to VSiN, home favorites of seven points or more are 31-2 straight up and 21-10-2 ATS on Thursday night since 2014. Also, since 2012, the under is 22-10 in Thursday games with a total of 50 or more.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
