Odds, horse-by-horse analysis for Breeders’ Cup Classic

Michael “The Wizard” Kipness, a professional horse racing handicapper since 1986, analyzes the nine-horse field for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, designating each horse as a contender or pretender.

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Post position, horse, jockey, morning-line odds:

Program #1: Fierceness, Velazquez, 5-2

Except for a fifth-place finish in the Gr. 1 Whitney at Saratoga, the 4-year-old has been nothing short of pure excellence for quite some time. His second-place finish in last year’s BC Classic was a great performance in defeat. He was run down late by the deep closer Sierra Leone after being heavily involved in a blistering pace battle the entire way. Fierceness exits a decisive win in the Pacific Classic over this course and distance. He will get first run on Contrary Thinking and try to fend off the closers. The rail is not what his connections wanted, but if he’s at his best, he’s certainly the one to beat as the morning line favorite. In the two recent races when he broke from the 1 post, he was troubled out of the gate. No one is riding any better right now than John Velazquez. Contender.

Program #2: Baeza, Berrios, 10-1

He enters the Classic in peak form. Baeza finally broke through with his first stakes win last time out in the Gr. 1 Pennsylvania Derby. He’s run well in defeat to Sovereignty and Journalism in four encounters this year. Baeza must step it up another notch to beat this stellar field of older horses. His master trainer John Shirreffs is a proven winner in marquee events. Contender.

Program #3: Nevada Beach, Smith, 20-1

I see no scenario where Nevada Beach, with only four career starts, can make his presence felt. He’s never run this far and is stepping way up in class. Pretender.

Program #4: Contrary Thinking, 50-1, Geroux

His sole mission is to carve out fast fractions to set up the late run of his barn mate Sierra Leone, both trained by Chad Brown. Pretender.

Program #5: Forever Young, Sakai, 7-2

This Japanese globetrotter is one of best managed horses I’ve ever seen. His average earnings are over $1 million in each of his 12 career starts, nine of which were victories. He’s in the conversation as the equine version of Los Angeles Dodgers great Shohei Ohtani. Even in his three defeats, all third-place finishes, Forever Young has run huge. He was beaten by a head in last year’s Kentucky Derby, 2¾ lengths in the 2024 BC Classic and two lengths in this year’s Dubai World Cup. His running style will place him in perfect striking position early on and his class and will to win are qualities to be reckoned with in the run to the wire. Contender.

Program #6: Sovereignty (Scratched)

Program #7: Sierra Leone, Prat, 7-2

This one-run deep closer got the fast pace he needed to win last year’s BC Classic over this course and distance. With his trainer Chad Brown entering a rabbit in Contrary Thinking to ensure a good pace scenario for him to close into, Sierra Leone will once again be rolling late. He’s hit the board in all 13 starts, so it would be folly to think he could not win this race again. He got a good setup in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but was held off by Antiquarian. I’m sure that race was used as a springboard for the Classic. Brown has indicated Sierra Leone has been training beautifully in defense of his title. Contender.

Program #8: Mindframe, Irad Ortiz, 6-1

One of three horses trained by Todd Pletcher and the one I like least. He got nothing out of his last race when he lost his rider soon after the start. Even though he was narrowly beaten in last year’s Belmont Stakes at this distance and has run well in four subsequent starts, I feel 1¼ miles is a tad too far against this type of competition. Pretender.

Program #9: Journalism, Jose Ortiz, 5-1

A gem of consistency throughout his career, Journalism has not been able to defeat Sovereignty in two encounters and was easily handled by Fierceness in the Pacific Classic. The rider change to Jose Ortiz could prove beneficial, but I don’t feel it’s enough to win the Classic at a distance which has pushed Journalism’s limits. Pretender.

Program #10: Antiquarian, Saez, 10-1

He has continued to improve as a 4-year-old, especially his last two starts stretching out to 1¼ miles. He exits a career-best race after upsetting seven rivals in the Gr. 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Antiquarian kept last year’s Classic winner Sierra Leone at bay in the late stages of the race. He gets a similar fast pace to close into here. What he lacks in brilliance, he makes up for with his staying power. Contender.